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The International Energy Agency on Tuesday warned against ‘complacency’ over global oil security, saying the escalating conflict in the Middle East continues to pose risks to energy markets despite emergency stock releases and alternative supply routes helping cushion disruptions. IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol said the worsening hostilities affecting the Strait of Hormuz and regional energy infrastructure have increased concerns over security of supply and market uncertainty. He added that fresh threats by Yemen’s Houthis to the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, which has become an increasingly important alternative shipping route, have further heightened those concerns. Brent oil was quoted at $90.44 a barrel at midday in London on Tuesday, its highest level since US President Donald Trump declared the ceasefire ’over’ during the NATO summit in Ankara on July 7. Crude remained well above the roughly $65 a barrel seen before the conflict began, although still below the $120 peak reached during the height of the fighting in April. Birol said crude oil markets are currently benefiting from several mitigating factors. These include continued exports from Gulf producers, particularly Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, through alternative routes around the Strait of Hormuz, alongside shipments still transiting the waterway. The IEA estimates Gulf exports remain below their late-June peak but are still well above levels seen between early March and mid-June. Higher oil exports from the US, Brazil, Venezuela and Kazakhstan have also helped offset some lost Gulf supplies, while China has stabilised markets by cutting crude oil imports by almost half compared with pre-war levels, the agency said. The IEA also highlighted the impact of emergency stock releases by its member countries. Since announcing a coordinated action on March 11 to make 400 million barrels of oil available, around 290 million barrels have already been released, with further supplies continuing to enter the market. Member countries still hold more than 1 billion barrels of government-controlled emergency stocks in reserve, Birol noted. Despite the support, the IEA cautioned that oil product markets remain tighter than crude markets. ‘Refinery activity and product supplies have not picked up as much as crude deliveries, meaning that markets for refined oil products, including diesel and gasoline, are considerably tighter than those for crude,’ Birol said. The agency also warned that natural gas markets remain under pressure. Increased liquefied natural gas exports from the US and Canada have replaced around 70% of lost Gulf supplies via the Strait of Hormuz, but delays in restoring Gulf exports could prolong market tightness, particularly in Europe as it rebuilds gas storage ahead of winter. Birol reiterated that a resolution to the conflict, including ‘a full and unconditional reopening of the Strait of Hormuz’, will be essential to prevent a further deterioration in global energy security. Copyright 2026 Alliance News Ltd. All Rights Reserved.
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