Results out soon in August.

Broker recos look very bullish and why not on a P/E of just over 6 to 2011.....

Thomas Cook Group PLC

FORECASTS 2010 2011
Date Rec Pre-tax (�) EPS (p) DPS (p) Pre-tax (�) EPS (p) DPS (p)

Panmure Gordon
02-08-10 BUY 319.00 27.10 11.30 338.00 28.70 12.40

Exane BNP Paribas
02-08-10 BUY 116.00 26.62 10.75 319.00 28.87 11.66

Numis Securities Ltd
02-08-10 ADD 324.20 27.60 11.25 357.10 29.90 11.81

Oriel Securities
02-08-10 BUY 330.40 28.40 11.40 363.50 31.30 12.10

KBC Peel Hunt Ltd
30-07-10 BUY 301.06 25.22 10.75 313.36 26.23 10.93

WestLB
30-07-10 SELL 28.81 11.52 29.91 11.96

Shore Capital
30-07-10 HOLD 312.00 26.50 11.80 347.00 29.50 13.00

Charles Stanley Securities
15-06-10 HOLD

Evolution Securities Ltd
11-02-10 None

Investec Securities [R]
09-02-10 BUY 327.00 27.30 11.74 352.23 29.39 12.49

Fyshe Horton Finney Ltd
25-01-10 BUY

Collins Stewart
24-12-09 BUY

Nomura Research Institute
25-09-09 RED

2010 2011
Pre-tax (�) EPS (p) DPS (p) Pre-tax (�) EPS (p) DPS (p)

Consensus 316.42 26.98 11.36 342.50 29.39 11.96

1 Month Change 1.07 -0.22 0.01 3.43 -0.14 -0.14
3 Month Change -11.92 -1.09 -0.05 -11.79 -1.00 -0.44


GROWTH
2009 (A) 2010 (E) 2011 (E)

Norm. EPS 2.76% 0.38% 8.92%
DPS 14.03% 10.80% 5.26%

INVESTMENT RATIOS
2009 (A) 2010 (E) 2011 (E)

EBITDA �574.90m �589.69m �613.90m
EBIT �372.50m �420.55m �447.05m
Dividend Yield 5.38% 5.96% 6.27%
Dividend Cover 2.62x 2.38x 2.46x
PER 7.10x 7.07x 6.49x
PEG 2.57f 18.55f 0.73f
Net Asset Value PS -240.80p 224.47p 240.43p

never confuse turnover with profit .... many companies go broke because they take on biz that is not (truly) profitable

Having taken profit a while back, seems TCG sp is drifting back down to an interesting level again. I wonder if winter bookings are going well. Seems to be a different market from the cheap ('ish) summer sun holiday. Bad figures could knock this back further......hmmmmmmmmm. Broker targets for 180p & 190p never materialized.

UK:TCG getting a mention in The Times today.It's 'the bet of the day' as spread betters take their position in TCG ahead of update next week

Positive Broker Recommendations....

Date Company Name Broker Rec. Price Old target price New target price Notes

20 Nov 13 Thomas Cook Group... Jefferies International Buy 152.70 200.00 200.00 Reiterates
19 Nov 13 Thomas Cook Group... Credit Suisse Outperform 152.70 175.00 175.00 Reiterates
15 Nov 13 Thomas Cook Group... Investec Hold 152.70 185.00 155.00 Downgrades
07 Oct 13 Thomas Cook Group... Citigroup Buy 152.70 195.00 195.00 Reiterates
26 Sep 13 Thomas Cook Group... Prime Markets Buy 152.70 150.00 150.00 Reiterates
26 Sep 13 Thomas Cook Group... Shore Capital Buy 152.70 - - Retains
26 Sep 13 Thomas Cook Group... Numis Hold 152.70 150.00 150.00 Retains
13 Sep 13 Thomas Cook Group... Morgan Stanley Overweight 152.70 160.00 160.00 Reiterates
12 Sep 13 Thomas Cook Group... JP Morgan Cazenove Overweight 152.70 180.00 180.00 Reiterates
05 Aug 13 Thomas Cook Group... Citigroup Buy 152.70 147.00 195.00 Upgrades

Numis Hold 151.70 148.40 150.00 175.00 Retains

Thomas Cook Group Price Target Increased to GBX 175 by Analysts at Numis Securities Ltd (TCG)

Posted by Wayne Rhoads on Nov 25th, 2013 //

Analysts at Numis Securities Ltd raised their price objective on shares of Thomas Cook Group (LON:TCG) from GBX 150 ($2.43) to GBX 175 ($2.84) in a research report issued to clients and investors on Monday, Analyst RN reports. The firm currently has a “hold” rating on the stock. Numis Securities Ltd’s target price indicates a potential upside of 17.90% from the company’s current price.

Thomas Cook Group (LON:TCG) opened at 152.00 on Monday. Thomas Cook Group has a 52-week low of GBX 19.288 and a 52-week high of GBX 170.90. The stock has a 50-day moving average of GBX 145.8 and a 200-day moving average of GBX 144.4. The company’s market cap is £1.360 billion.

Other equities research analysts have also recently issued reports about the stock. Analysts at JPMorgan Chase & Co. reiterated an “overweight” rating on shares of Thomas Cook Group in a research note to investors on Friday. They now have a GBX 180 ($2.92) price target on the stock. Separately, analysts at Panmure Gordon reiterated a “buy” rating on shares of Thomas Cook Group in a research note to investors on Friday. They now have a GBX 180 ($2.92) price target on the stock. Finally, analysts at AlphaValue downgraded shares of Thomas Cook Group to a “reduce” rating in a research note to investors on Friday. They now have a GBX 155.50 ($2.52) price target on the stock, up previously from GBX 154.80 ($2.51). Two equities research analysts have rated the stock with a sell rating, eight have assigned a hold rating and twelve have assigned a buy rating to the company. Thomas Cook Group presently has an average rating of “Hold” and an average price target of GBX 150.02 ($2.43).

Thomas Cook Group plc operates under six geographic segments: UK, Central Europe, West & East Europe, Northern Europe, North America and Airlines Germany.

Sale of Neilson Active Holidays

Thomas Cook Group plc (the "Group") announces today that it has agreed to sell its specialist activity tour operator Neilson Active Holidays Ltd. to private equity firm Risk Capital Partners for consideration of £9.15 million. The transaction is expected to complete on or about 10 December 2013. All other parts of Thomas Cook's UK tour operations remain unaffected by today's announcement.

Commenting on the sale, Harriet Green, Group Chief Executive of Thomas Cook Group plc, said:

"The transformation of our UK business - and that of the Group overall - is happening at pace. We have previously undertaken a comprehensive review of our product portfolio and where we want our business to be. Today's announcement is the result of our continuing rationalisation of our business. Building on our other recently announced disposals, it will allow us to focus on those key brands, propositions and products that will deliver our strategy for profitable growth."

Thomas Cook upgraded by Numis
25th November 2013, 09:21

Numis believes “something is cooking” at Thomas Cook Group [LON:TCG] and has upgraded its recommendation to ‘add’ from ‘hold’ ahead of Thursday’s preliminary results and strategy update.

While the broker states that it does not anticipate a particularly positive set of trading results, given the company has already indicated that winter trading had started slowly, it does expect the strategy update to lay out further cost-out savings of at least £100 million, in addition to increased targets for new product initiatives.

Analysts believe such an announcement will push the shares higher and have therefore increased their price target to 175 pence per share from 150 pence.

Interestingly, 70 per cent of brokers now rate the shares as an ‘add’ or better, according to Broker Forecasts consensus data.

At 9:20am: Thomas Cook Group share price was up 4.15 pence at 152.55 pence.

Missed this mon apologies....

Thomas Cook Group Stock Rating Upgraded by Numis Securities Ltd (TCG)
Posted by Wayne Rhoads on Nov 25th, 2013

Thomas Cook Group (LON:TCG) was upgraded by investment analysts at Numis Securities Ltd to an “add” rating in a note issued to investors on Monday, American Banking and Market News reports. The firm currently has a GBX 175 ($2.84) price objective on the stock, up from their previous price objective of GBX 150 ($2.43). Numis Securities Ltd’s target price indicates a potential upside of 17.90% from the company’s current price.

Shares of Thomas Cook Group (LON:TCG) opened at 153.083 on Monday. Thomas Cook Group has a one year low of GBX 19.288 and a one year high of GBX 170.90. The stock has a 50-day moving average of GBX 145.8 and a 200-day moving average of GBX 144.4. The company’s market cap is £1.369 billion.

TCG has been the subject of a number of other recent research reports. Analysts at JPMorgan Chase & Co. reiterated an “overweight” rating on shares of Thomas Cook Group in a research note to investors on Friday. They now have a GBX 180 ($2.92) price target on the stock. Separately, analysts at Panmure Gordon reiterated a “buy” rating on shares of Thomas Cook Group in a research note to investors on Friday. They now have a GBX 180 ($2.92) price target on the stock. Finally, analysts at AlphaValue downgraded shares of Thomas Cook Group to a “reduce” rating in a research note to investors on Friday. They now have a GBX 155.50 ($2.52) price target on the stock, up previously from GBX 154.80 ($2.51). Two equities research analysts have rated the stock with a sell rating, eight have issued a hold rating and twelve have issued a buy rating to the company’s stock. The company currently has an average rating of “Hold” and a consensus price target of GBX 150.02 ($2.43).

Thomas Cook Group plc operates under six geographic segments: UK, Central Europe, West & East Europe, Northern Europe, North America and Airlines Germany.

Its in post 1149!

ehhhhhhh..........Im cracking up.

Final Results

Year ended 30 September 2013 (statutory):

· Thomas Cook announces an operating profit ("Statutory EBIT") for the first time since FY10



Year ended 30 September 2013 compared with year ended 30 September 2012 (underlying):

· Encouraging profitable growth with revenue of £9,315 million (2012: £9,195 million), up £120 million, an increase of 1.3%, due to pricing, yield improvements and the effect of foreign exchange offsetting a managed reduction in committed capacity

· EBIT of £263 million (2012: £177 million), up £86 million, an increase of 48.6%, reflecting the benefits of disciplined capacity management, cost out and profit improvement initiatives

· EBIT margin rose by 90 basis points to 2.8% (2012: 1.9%)

· Underlying earnings per share improved significantly to 5.0p (2012: 0.6p)

· Free cash flow increased by £156 million to £53 million (2012: (£103)million) due to improved organic cash generation from the Group's operations

Stronger balance sheet

30 September 2013 compared with 30 September 2012:

· Net debt reduced by £367 million to £421 million (2012: £788 million), with £73 million of the reduction due to improved operational cash flow

· Credit ratings improved: Fitch "B" with positive outlook (2012: "B-" with stable outlook) and Standard & Poor's "B" with stable outlook (2012: "B-" with negative outlook)

Unified brand portfolio for our customers

· Simplified brand labels from 85 to 30, unifying them under the "Sunny Heart" symbol representing for our customers personalised and trusted holidays, "high tech, high touch" delivery, backed by market leading international scale and purchasing power

Delivering on targets and KPIs

New product growth

· Incremental new product revenue growth target increased to more than £700 million in FY15, up from £500 million that was previously targeted. By FY17 we expect to have increased this incremental new product revenue growth by a further £500 million to more than £1.2 billion

· Incremental new product revenue grew by £94 million in FY13 including the growing contribution from our exclusive concept hotels

· We have 309 exclusive hotels in total including concept hotels, which are franchised or leased under our brands, and partnership hotels, where we have strong relationships with the hotel owners. We plan to increase the number of these exclusive hotels to 800 by FY17

· Progress made developing our city break offer, having doubled our inventory in Central Europe. We plan to increase the number of city hotels that we can offer our customers from a current level of 7,000 to 20,000 by FY15

Web penetration

· 36% of holidays booked online (2012: 34%) moving towards our FY15 target of over 50%, the online booking only being recognised once our customer has departed on their holiday

· All markets saw increased web penetration, including Scandinavia which is over 70%

· Significant organisational change underway migrating our six key markets to a "OneWeb" common platform

· Digital Advisory Board appointed, comprising external web experts and supporting product innovation and digital recruitment

· New products innovated including DreamCapture, which enables the valuable customer relationship discussion in the store to continue digitally after the customer returns home

· Won "Outstanding Innovation" for our use of new technology to deliver online travel services in the Global Business Excellence Awards

· Developing our "high tech, high touch" offer: building competitive advantage through the digital delivery of quality assured services that our customers can personalise and trust

Cost out and profit improvement ("Wave 1")

· FY15 cost out and profit improvement target increased to £440 million, due to a further £40 million of deliverable benefits. These arose primarily from adjustments to our risk weighting, acknowledging that more of the gross benefits will be realised than we had originally expected. Going forward, any increases to our cost out targets as a result of risk weighting adjustments will be disclosed at our half year and full year results announcements

· By FY13 we have delivered cumulative cost out and profit improvement benefits of £194 million. This is £24 million above our increased target for the end of FY13 of £170 million; this target already having been raised in Q3 2013 from an original FY13 target of £145 million, which highlights the extent of the accelerated delivery this year

· Reflecting this accelerated delivery, we now expect to achieve total benefits of £340 million in FY14, higher than the £315 million target that we had previously announced for that year

Gross margin improvement

· Underlying gross margin on a like for like basis increased by 80 basis points to 22.1% (2012: 21.3%). This is the result of a systemised approach to enhance our yield management and realise benefits of cost out and profit improvement across the Group, driven by an internally engineered business operating methodology called "The Thomas Cook Business System"

UK turnaround

· UK underlying EBIT margin on a like for like basis improved by 210 basis points to 2.2% (FY12: 0.1%)

· Reduced retail stores by 21% from 1,101 at the beginning of the programme to 874 at the end of September 2013 and increased UK web penetration to 36% (FY12: 33%)

Cash conversion

· Cash conversion ratio rose to 48% (FY12: 11%) moving towards our FY15 target of more than 60%, reflecting substantial improvements in working capital management

· Cash conversion target for FY15 increased from more than 60% to a new target of greater than 70%, another example of the benefits of our systemised operating methodology and the gathering momentum of the transformation

· Delivered almost £100 million working capital improvement in FY13. Working capital improvement target for FY15 increased by £50 million to a new target of £200 million

Intense business focus

· Will have delivered £61 million of gross proceeds from disposals, once the announced Airline Group transaction completes, on track to achieve our target of between £100 million and £150 million by FY15

· Concluded successful discussions that led to an agreement to sell the majority of our interests in The Airline Group, 41.9% owner of NATS Holdings Limited, for a cash consideration of approximately £38 million

· Announced the disposal of Neilson for a cash consideration of £9.15 million, our outbound business in Egypt and Lebanon for cash consideration of £6.5 million and our Corporate Foreign Exchange business for a cash consideration of £4.5 million. Also outsourced our UK escorted tours business, Thomas Cook Tours, for a minimum period of five years

· Good progress made transforming our French and Russian businesses; French losses reduced and Russian performance stabilised

· On track in the development of the new "One Airline" structure, which will deliver integration of our four airlines, realising scale benefits and efficiency improvements

Target increases

· The following table includes three increases to our FY15 targets and sets out the milestones that we expect to reach in FY14:

- New Product Revenue FY15 target increased to >£700 million (previous FY15 target >£500 million)

- Cost Out and Profit Improvement FY15 target increased to >£440 million (previous FY15 target >£400 million)

- Cash Conversion FY15 target increased to >70% (previous FY15 target >60%)

but is that more than was being looked for?

Reuter's take :- Thomas Cook turnaround gathers pace as profit rises 49 percent

Reuters) - Thomas Cook (TCG.L) posted a 49 percent jump in full-year operating profit and raised its cost cutting target as part of the holiday firm's successful turnaround programme.

The 172-year-old travel group on Thursday reported earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT), excluding exceptional items, of 263 million pounds ($428.09 million) for the year to the end of September, ahead of a company supplied consensus forecast of 251 million pounds. Revenues rose 1.3 percent to 9.32 billion pounds.

The world's oldest travel firm is recovering from a dramatic slump in sales over the last two years, hit by the euro zone debt crisis, high fuel costs and social and political turmoil in popular holiday destinations such as Greece, Egypt and Tunisia.

Thomas Cook turnaround gathers pace as profit rises 49 pct28 Nov 2013 - 07:16

LONDON, Nov 28 (Reuters) - Thomas Cook posted a 49 percent jump in full-year operating profit and raised its cost cutting target as part of the holiday firm’s successful turnaround programme. The 172-year-old travel group on Thursday reported earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT), excluding exceptional items, of 263 million pounds ($428.09 million) for the year to the end of September, ahead of a company supplied consensus forecast of 251 million pounds. Revenues rose 1.3 percent to 9.32 billion pounds. The world's oldest travel firm is recovering from a dramatic slump in sales over the last two years, hit by the euro zone debt crisis, high fuel costs and social and political turmoil in popular holiday destinations such as Greece, Egypt and Tunisia. Thomas Cook raised its cost cutting target to 440 million pounds after identifyintg a further 40 million of savings during the year. Shares in Thomas Cook, which have more than trebled in 2013, closed at 152.8 pence on Wednesday, valuing the company at around 2.2 billion pounds. ($1 = 0.6144 British pounds) (Reporting by Rhys Jones; editing by Kate Holton) ((r.jones@thomsonreuters.com)(44)(20)(7 542 4166)(Reuters Messaging: rhysl.jones.thomsonreuters.com@reuters.net)) Keywords: THOMASCOOK/

Yipes out of auction look a the gain.

Testing previous (recent) high @170p.

UPDATE 1-Thomas Cook turnaround gathers pace as profit rises 49 pct28 Nov 2013 - 07:47

(Adds details) LONDON, Nov 28 (Reuters) - Thomas Cook posted a 49 percent jump in full-year operating profit and raised its revenue and cost cutting targets in the latest stage of a turnaround at the world's oldest travel firm. The 172-year-old travel group on Thursday reported earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT), excluding exceptional items, of 263 million pounds ($428.09 million) for the year to the end of September, ahead of a company supplied consensus forecast of 251 million pounds. The tour operator is recovering from a dramatic slump in sales over the last two years, hit by the euro zone debt crisis, high fuel costs and social and political turmoil in popular holiday destinations such as Greece, Egypt and Tunisia. Since travel industry outsider Harriet Green took over as CEO 16 months ago, the firm has seen a steady improvement in its finances following job cuts, store closures and a series of disposals to slash its debt, which now stands at 421 million pounds, down from 788 million a year ago. Green said the was business was now "back on a firm trajectory of profitable growth" and that she was "confident of delivering significantly more" in the coming years. Reflecting this confidence, Thomas Cook expects to cut costs by 440 million pounds by 2015, 10 percent more than previously expected, and to deliver a further 440 million pounds of savings by 2018. It also increased its target for 2015 new product revenue by 40 percent to 700 million pounds. Green has pledged to boost profits by $500 million in the next three years by moving more of its operations online. Its operating margin rose 0.9 percentage points to 2.8 percent, while revenues jumped 1.3 percent to 9.32 billion pounds, helped by robust demand for fixed-price holidays. Thomas Cook said 36 percent of 2013 sales were made online during the year, 2 percent up on a year ago, after it reduced its online brands to three in the UK and one in Germany, and extend products offered online. Thomas Cook unveiled a 1.6 billion pound refinancing plan in May designed to cut debt and enable it to resume paying dividends by the end of 2015. Jefferies analyst Ian Rennardson said the "combination of more cost reductions and higher revenue growth is likely to drive consensus upgrades to 2015 forecasts". Shares in Thomas Cook, which have more than trebled in 2013, closed at 152.8 pence on Wednesday, valuing the company at around 2.2 billion pounds. ($1 = 0.6144 British pounds) (Reporting by Rhys Jones; editing by Kate Holton and Brenda Goh) ((r.jones@thomsonreuters.com)(44)(20)(7 542 4166)(Reuters Messaging: rhysl.jones.thomsonreuters.com@reuters.net)) Keywords: THOMASCOOK/

Sunny prospects for Thomas Cook as it delivers a profit
by Harriet Green
November 28, 2013, 8:45am


Things are starting to look up for Thomas Cook as the travel company saw an operating profit for the first time since 2010, as the first year of its turnaround plan starts to take off. Shares have rocketed this morning on the news, up over 11 per cent, putting it at the top of the FTSE 250 risers.

Underlying operating profit was up by 49 per cent to £263m. Chief executive Harriet Green, for whom this was her first full year in charge, said: "We've taken out more cost more quickly than originally planned. The balance sheet has been strengthened; the £1.6 billion recapitalisation has been completed, maturities extended and we have almost halved our net debt."

- See more at: http://www.cityam.com/blog/1385628300/sunny-prospects-thomas-cook-it-delivers-profit#sthash.watEqsMQ.dpuf