ASOS have dropped quite significantly in the past week for no particular reason and I view this as the perfect opportunity to invest as I can see them bouncing right back up to the 5.50p mark in the next 2-3 weeks. STRONG BUY!!

Que sera sera Johngtudor. Shoulda sold out at 88p last year and come back in somewhere near here.

I'm in a number of what I think of as virgin lift off stocks - where they go through their first rapid vertical rise - SEO, DOO, FOGL, ASC. The chart doesn't really give you much to go on at the first high peak. In retrospect (funny that) it all seems so simple what you should have done.

Remember China Wonder CWO - from 25p placing price to intraday high of 125p in 3 days flat - being in just for the fun of the first Chinese stock on AIM, I never intended to hold, but was disappointed to get out at only 75p eventually. Still, being my third stock I bought, it paid for the losses I made on the first two!

Selling, as I suspect for many of us, is my weakest link. We need to be just more callous. Take a nice profit and worry about getting back in lower if it happens.

SD

I am not shorting ASC as I am interesting in making a FIRST investment into this interesting stock and am waiting to see where the price goes from here.My worries are legitimate.I am sorry if I have upset you...et tu stock canis.I live in Portugal,Deancroft,so you are quite safe!!!Am not consiously following you around but am interested in VTI and HYR among other shares.Your flowers broghtened a rather dull day.Thankyou.Ethel

sorry about the gaelic...should read brightened...

Ethel

Don't be put off by being accused of shorting - people are far too sensitive sometimes IMVHO. Certainly no apology to me required.

Given today's events, the chart has turned into a persuasive downward phase with no visible reversal till we get there.

Follow the old adage buy on a falling market - and get in any time now with half your ideal holding, but be prepared to go through the rest of the dip (during which phase you put in the other half) before you come up the other side for the ride to profits which fundamentals of the stock and the economy tell me there will be.

Or wait for a decisive move up to tell you the falling phase is over and quickly put in your full quota.

This second is safer. The first is more profitable, but riskier. You pays your money takes your choice - risk versus reward. Don't forget it's not like gambling where there is no intrinsic value in the bet - there is a minimum real present value to the company, assuming flat future earnings. The rest of the value is the anticipation of rising earnings.

Much easier to write this than to act on it, always. Hope this helps. MYOMU - I know nothing.

SD

Eric
Very interesting. I think probably the shorters have got the MM's a little bit on the run - how much free stock is out there do you reckon - not a whole heap, which always makes the price movement more extreme, doesn't it.
If the MM's have dropped the price one last significant step to stop the shorters, then they will have done their work - the shorting will stop and positions will have to be closed. Or it might continue lower tomorrow. As johngtudor says, EOW closing is probably worth waiting for before taking any action.

Given that for every sell there is an equal and opposite buy (even MM's are only part of the market) an unexplained sell off, even more so a falling SP when buys > gains, should statistically be taken as some form of market manipulation which, whilst antithetical to our fundamentalist approach, nonetheless creates opportunities for us to get in on retracements, so why dislike shorters so much?

A sell off after negative comment is much more worrying because the shares become 3 day old fish which nobody wants. That is a very unhappy process.

But, ASC has been copybook perfect in its concept, timing, marketing, logistics and been rewarded with fantastic and foreseeably continuing growth - real pound coins going into the till in ever increasing numbers.

Have you read the quite large numbers of recent articles about how buying boring, low rated, dividend bearing shares over 10 years plus make more money than growth shares. Well, ASC will become one of those boring cash cows and we are buying into it at a discount for time and risk now.

Will someone shoot the old dog - he's rambling again. Wake me up when we hit bottom.

SD

SD

I like those posts! Good dog - extra biccies and walkies. Good sense spoken. By the way, not really sensitive about shorters who may well be a necessary 'evil'! Even Simon Cawkwell talks about good evil and clearly believes he is doing a service to society. However, it had been drawn to my attention (presumably from a reading of his website) that he has been shorting ASC and encouraging others to do so. What interests me is not the morality of that, which I deem neutral, but understanding the process so that I can take advantage of the outcome and help others to do so. I hope jgt will comment later so will keep my powder dry until we have his 'expert' opinion.

ethel

Thanks for that; a belated welcome to the site. sd suspects I'm super-sensitive on the shorting subject. The ADVFN board is evidently rife with derampers and you do see evidence on specific threads over here. Re ASC, please look at my post 1169 and let me have your comments. Essentially, my view is that the fundamentals are very good and should reflect a significantly higher price but the charts are bad and the price has been driven down by profit-taking and shorting. Will await jgt's input before commenting further.

Eric

Eric

Eric , if you believe Evil is shorting (and I am not convinced) then consider where his price target is - just the other way round of thinking since I am sure you set price targets. I would suggest around 53 for 100% retracement of the previous move.

maddoctor

I have not seen the statement that evil is shorting ASC personally but am informed by a reliable source. That's been my question because I didn't think the sp would go below 60p. Earlier troughs are at 55p and 47p as the lower part of a converging triangle. The timing aspect needs to be considered. Given news flow early April with trading statement for last quarter and updates on warehouse then that is going to come into the bulls-eye mid March. So there is probably another three weeks to go before the shorts really need to be closed. If they are as large as seems to be the case then the closing of the shorts will give a significant jump in sp on their own; I suspect that will come early March. There could therefore be one more effort to get the price lower, perhaps to 55p and that will be it. I've been topping up in the 60s but in several very positive plays at the moment so hoping ASC takes its time before the recovery starts!

stockdog: if you're still hilding from way up there, long past the sell-by date in my book! Suggest you add and average the price down.

Eric

Eric

Too right, Eric. Just bunker down and hope for 50p now to get in some more at a good price before the warehouse announcement!

SD

Eric,thankyou for your response,your earlier post was excellent.The main problem with ASC at the moment seems to be market sentiment and when it blows cold it can prove really damaging to a stock.One minute you are a "darling" and the next you are dropped,for no valid reason that you can find.....just like human relations.People get bored easily and move onto something new.Why invest in ASC at the moment when there are all those potential multi-baggers out there?The top of the range price on this one reflects how far the investors were prepared to gamble.After all, it is an internet stock,for all the talk of warehousing....the market still has'nt forgotten the bursting bubble....even in the USA::..look at the recent downturn in sp of the biggies,Google and Amazon and the worries about controlling Ebay.I hope that ASC can ride this and come out with flying colours.It is constantly being compared to Next which must be galling to the brokers who hold stock in that.The only relentless consumers when the rest of us have cut back will be the young people...who pester parents or spend their wages/dole money on keeping up with fashion.As long as this market,with its obsession with peer groups exists,then ASC can only grow imho.I bide my time...walking my dog and stalking gentlemen on MAM.Ethel

Ethel: I'm glad that we're friend. Your welcome to stalk me any time you like! Mind, you may well catch me up! Think the internet crash is a thing of the past. ASC is the fashion play where the buying method has really taken hold - something of a problem for NEXT with the competition for their High Street chain. There is a post above from lemminginvestor.com (I think - round 10th January) which gives a good perspective. I still see evidence of shorting (as reported by someone with inside knowledge, the ploy is to sell in multiples of 20K and 25K and time the trades for maximum effect. As yesterday, the price has moved a bit lower whilst buys have out-done sells. A key thing to understand with Evil is that he has a rational argument for shorting a share: with ASC the price was looking somewhat ahead at 80-90p when he probably began his exercise. Now it is below a reasonable level even on current trading but he has the momentum on his side. I suspect he must be near his target - 57p? 55p - lets say the latter. He will then close his positions and instruct his acolytes to close their's and the sp will bounce - I expect he closes his and then tells the others! It is as certain as can be a 2-bagger at the current price. But I am still putting my funds elsewhere just on a priority basis time wise - i.e. backing the shares with positive momentum. Main play at the moment is GMC - 40% in two days, lovely grub! If you're interested look at the web-site. Simon Cawkwell (Evil K) has prdicted 60 p or a cap of 100m for an internet gambling minnow! Better to have him on your side, as with SEO! I am developing a philosophy or running with him on his Long positions and taking advantage of his Shorting without participating, which would be agin my optimistic personality!

Happy trading, Eric

Interesting charts! First, we could be forming the right shoulder of a head and shoulders: this would imply sideways trading for a while (Evil can't get the price lower as buyers respond) thus giving a well-defined support level. Chart-wise the breakout could be down. I would argue that this can't happen because of the fundamentals; i.e. the price is perhaps 25% down on where it should be even without the next positive news. Second, look at the momentum chart: the 12-day is turning; it tends to be clearer when a rise is running out of steam; here it is an indicator that the chart is poised for a recovery. BUY soon!

Eric

I think the chart looks a bit grim.Oversold,money out volumes down,more sells than buys.Why don't they short it down to 45p or has the momentum gone for this particular exercise?Someone bought 200,000 shares this am. was'nt me.Yours Ethel.Thanks for the gmc tip,Eric.

Eric

Thanks for this timely analysis. I have been, as you know, watching and waiting. You've given me the impetus I need to dip in again to double my holding.

By the way, I can't help noticing that the head and shoulders formation actually has three heads like my friend Cerberus - long may he guard the gates of Hades.

Snuff snuff!

SD

Hi everyone, I have had some problems today with some s/w known as Java. It seems I do not have it installed according to the MoneyAm s/w application and therefore remain unable to look at details of the volume table and other essential trading tools. Now I hasten to add that I do have Java installed, Java themselves tell me so, and I have that nice steaming teacup on the screen to confirm it is so...I have also ticked all the right boxes and more importantly have not changed any of the settings since yesterday when it all worked AOK...I expect you have all had similiar experiences and I hope that by Monday all is fixed as if by magic...perhaps it will revert to normal, who knows!

Anyway I can still post, and it has been a sad week for holders of ASOS. Although we seem to be holding just below the 200 day ma, I have searched in vain for some shining beacon of light that would suggest events are about to change. Normally when all else fails I apply the Elliot Wave Count, and although it is unreliable, we may be at the end of a wavecount down. But as yet there are no Oscillators or other supporting evidence to support that finding. So reluctantly there are no Technical reasons for holding the stock only Fundamental ones. Evil continues to short the stock with his friends, actually he seems to have picked on a number of my holdings and I may have to go with the tide soon...but setting that aside, if the falling 50 day ma crosses the 200 day ma in the next few days, and it is pointing to that dreadful event taking place, then we may see further heavy falls in the SP and I would be looking for a support level before going Long again. As for the Fundamentals of this stock...well no change on that front, the company appears to be thriving so this SP fall can be put down to nothing more than negative sentiment and opportunism by the shorters and there is no harm in that as it makes for a healthy market, but soon this stock will be a screaming buy and for long term holders if you still happy with your research on the company...why sell. Of course these are only my views and you may all have different objectives and views, good luck. John

stockdog: for a canine, you never cease to amaze; now we get the classical stuff; suspect we need Cerberus to protect us from Evil!

But I have a theory. Interesting trades again today: price drops despite buys outdoing sells; is that the MMs saying "lets get it over with Evil". Then a lot of buys at the end of the day in the significant shorting multiple of 25K. Could mark the end of the shorting process. The test will come on Monday morning: if the buys continue the point may be proven. The timing could have been excellent, sd, but then dofs always know when its time for dins; and for walkies!

Enjoy the weekend, Eric

john . don't forget the 200 and 50 must both be pointing down , at present that is not the case.

Eric , the 25k trades looked very deliberate and meant to be seen , this makes me very suspicious. I doubt shorts closing would behave in so obvious a way in case the sp was raised against them.

maddoctor: Correct and noted.

Eric: I do not think shorts are closing their positions...you may want them too but not yet awhile I suspect.

John

You still in this EW ?

I remain happy with my buy at 58.25 around midday shortly after which the first 25k buy occurred at 58, then the next at 58.25 and so onwards and upwards with similar round number buys with SP offer rising to 59. Pity about the two final 175k which I have as probable sells.

johngtudor - if shorts not closing, who were the buyers do you think? Bigger men than me, which gives me comfort whoever they were. Monday will hold keen interest for me.

If I was wrong, we're down to the mid 40's support level from August - hardly strong support at that.

Dog days.

SD