The tiny Irish stock on the brink of landing 'the first' post-sanction oil deal in Iraq. Ref 'Fleet Street Letter' 12-04-04..

Alot of people off loading early on this one now today! poss. trying to take profits and re-buy lower again.

I think this announcement may mean they are able to talk alittle more re my post 1418.A contact with them may be fruitful

It could be that they have had a positive responce to their tender submission. i certainly would not have thought that this is just to bump up the sp.

This will mean the sp will inevitably drift down again until the actual announcement that we're waiting for. All that seems to say is "You'll all have to wait a bit longer guys"!!

No i wasnt suggesting it was. The fact that they have broken the silence might mean they are able to enter into a bit of a dialogue and provide some further details like is it just them who is putting in a final commercial offering by the 14th Dec. If it was then it is a much stronger statement ( should i say dynamite)

although it is good that PET have broken their vow of silence, it is only small investors that are buying, the big boys have`nt jumped onboard yet. beasties i think you are right in saying it will drift down again, mainly from people profit taking after they got a bit nervy will the fall lately,
dexter

This is a positive piece of news which clearly atates they are in play and that there is a deadline date for their submission. They have been in a band of 96 - 108 for most of last month . This is very positive news and could move this band upwards. I think the intial sellers on the price hike have gone for the moment and the screen has gone blue.It would be interesting to see if there is any press comment at the weekend, it could have quite an effect leading up to the 14th Dec.(IMO)

The way I read it:
---------------------------------------------------------
Further to its announcement of 27 September 2004, the Company confirms that it
has finalised all outstanding matters on the tenders for the Hamrin and Khurmala
projects in Iraq and awaits a decision. The deadline for submission of the final
commercial offer on the Subba and Luhais project is December 15th.
---------------------------------------------------------

Two tenders submitted and waiting for a decision, no time scale specified.

Tender for final project yet to be submitted on or before the 15/12/04. Decision on the last tender sometime after that.

So: Not impossible for the decision on the completed tenders to be made any day, still impossible to tell when that news will come. The 15th isn't going to be a news day, that's just when they have to have the final tender submitted.

There seems to be a little confusion on the board. The Hamrin and Khurmala projects are those that the Iraqi Oil Ministry said they would AWARD contracts by end November. The Subba and Luhais project was being treated separately with december bids (as I recall). So what does it mean?

It means that the two bids on which our main hopes hang are still alive. We don't know whether we are at a single tender stage or not; we hope and expect it is single tender because the known potential contenders have been ruled out. Why has the RNS been released now? I expect because of investor agitation, to give us some peace of mind and to give them peace away from constant badgering. Pretty sure it will have been cleared with the IOM. So far so good. Reasonably positive and certainly not negative apart from the fact that things are possibly running a little behind schedule.

The S and L project offer announcement is also pretty positive. It means that not all eggs are in one basket (as are PCI's currently). If PET win one or both of the first two tenders, they seem, in my view, less likely to win S and L. If they win neither, they could pick up S and L as a consolation prize (although I seem to recall it is the largest of the three). Most likely H and/or K.

I do accept though that the RNS is partly defensive; the purpose being to prevent a short-selling campaign on the share. It obviously succeeds in that. So, Beasties, it is good news to end the week. The share price should be more aggressive, at least for a while. You'll be happier going to see your Mum and will be spreading bonhomie - God bless you both!

Eric

As usual Eric a very good and thoughtful post.

Nice one Eric. Done a little bit of trimming meantime, with a view to replenish in a few days' time. Still have most of my holding tho. Consoling myself with NBR.

Here's a question;
Wasps; what's the point? Wouldn't the world be a better place without them?
Shorters; ditto!!
Oops, that's a question for the PCI board.....

If there are any others putting in tenders they would also have issued a RNS, have i read right?

They would if they were a listed company, not if they were a private funded company, we will just have to wait and see. sometime this month I feel, but not even going to try and guess a date.

aldwickk: Re your question...only if those companies were registered on the London Stock Exchange. PET may have competition for these deals from Oil Groups throughout the World. We think we know them all and over time through one source or another they have been eliminated, but we can't be sure we know them all. As an example I can't believe Haliburton have not tendered in some form or other. jgt

aldwick, great spot. if i may also be positive about the timing of the RNS, on monday... if you have the facility a T10 trade will take into account the 15th december date, could this mean they have flushed out the buyers for then and also shaken any other companies into posting anything indicating other runners for the same tenders. If none appear my xmas pressie money is coming out of the piggy bank shortly.....

watcher

johngtudor,
haliburton are one of PET`s partners for the tenders. a full list is in the annual report on PET`s website.
dexter

dexter01: Understood, but I was not sure if that prevented them from tendering on their own account?

jgt,
i would`nt have thought so, bearing in mind all the damning publicity they`ve had lately

dexter01: Well I think it may be time to buy some more then!! John

Just to remind you what it is all about. There are THREE tenders:
From Petrel Website.

Petrel is shortly due to submit tenders to develop three oil fields in Iraq - Kirkuk, Hamrin and Subba / Luhais:

The Kirkuk tender to develop the Khurmala dome will be submitted by the end of March. Kirkuk is in Kurdestan but it is not in the Kurdish autonomous areas. The populace is ethnically mixed and inter-group relations seem businesslike. This is a proposal to design, build and commission a 120,000 barrel of oil daily facility. We believe that this production target is not particularly challenging, and that there is substantial upside. The reserves are proven, but there is no surface engineering on this dome. These are cash contracts, though a future sovereign government may convert them to risk-sharing arrangements. There are substantial targets at depth. The geology of the area is well understood: there are multiple source rocks, excellent reservoirs and seals. Oil and gas seepages in the area were observed from ancient times. Topography is hilly


The tender to develop the similarly sized Hamrin field in central Iraq will be submitted by April 15th. These reserves are also proven. As with Khurmala, dozens of relatively shallow wells have proven up the reserves. These wells are capped and the field has never produced, but geological risk is negligible. No surface engineering is present. Hamrin is in a predominantly Sunni Arab region north west of Baghdad. There is substantial unemployment in the area and local citizens are keen to develop their resources.


The updated tender for the Subba and Luhais joint field development of 120,000 barrels daily will be submitted by May 15th. There is surface engineering in place here, but it has been extensively damaged in the 1980s Iranian war. At peak, these two fields produced approximately 80,000 barrels. We believe that the targeted production is undemanding and that there is substantial upside from shallow reservoirs. Seismic reveals additional substantial structures at greater depth. These fields are in a desert north west of Basra in southern Iraq. Topography is flat. The area is predominantly Shia Arab. There has been little trouble post-war, though banditry is an issue in the region. Though damaged, infrastructure is reasonable, terrain is flat and export terminals relatively close.