This sums up much of my thinking - I hold a few and swing trade a few and even trade intraday sometimes ......

I think there is a lot of slack that management can cut out of the costs and would also anticipate sector consolidation ..... good value currently and have been holding their own in a falling market. Lot of US interest.

ains


Edited by Dominic White
(Filed: 08/02/2003)


Texting makes MmO2 sexy but it's also risky

More and more Britons are discovering the joys of textual intercourse. In the month of December, we fired off more than 50m mobile messages a day, and next Friday (that's Valentine's Day, folks, in case you'd forgotten) we'll send considerably more than that.



It emerged this week that the chief beneficiary of this craze is MmO2 . BT's former mobile phone division revealed that it gets a higher proportion of revenues from texting than any of the other three operators.

Revenue from messaging grew at its fastest rate ever in the last quarter, up 19pc, and data services as a proportion of MmO2 's revenue rose to 17.7pc from 15.6pc.

More good news was the rise in MmO2 's average revenues per customer. ARPUs, as nerdy analysts like to dub them, grew by 5pc to 243 in the UK and by 9pc in Germany to 212.

MmO2 now has 19.1m subscribers and in Britain it may be the smallest player, with 11.9m users, but it is growing faster than its rivals - testament to the success of its rebranding from BT Cellnet.

Only 114,000 of its 503,000 new UK subscribers were higher-spending contract customers, but MmO2 claims its pre-pay customers have started spending more than before.

Customer growth in Germany, which continues to be dominated by T-Mobile and Vodafone, is less impressive and the MmO2 share price ascribes little or no value to this part of the business.

That seems unfair, given the fact that the group has attracted higher-spending customers and has made a decent fist of turning the operation around. An eventual sale or merger is almost as inevitable as a disposal of the Dutch unit, which is losing customers.

MmO2 's larger rival Vodafone is trading on a free cashflow yield of 6pc, while at 49p this week, MmO2 's equivalent valuation remains negative. It might not have Vodafone's scale or profitability but there is room for upside. A risky buy.

not seen any news today other than nokia stuff





Buy orders Sell orders
Num(%) Num Vol(%) Vol VWAP Vol Vol(%) Num Num(%)
1% (64.44%) 29 (43.73%) 745,459 54.62 - 55.54 959,411 (56.27%) 16 (35.56%)
5% (58.33%) 35 (49.38%) 1,919,579 54.33 - 55.79 1,967,835 (50.62%) 25 (41.67%)
10% (61.63%) 53 (73.60%) 5,753,438 53.59 - 55.85 2,063,711 (26.40%) 33 (38.37%)
15% (63.46%) 66 (73.84%) 6,705,638 53.28 - 56.24 2,376,215 (26.16%) 38 (36.54%)
50% (65.18%) 73 (76.13%) 8,151,588 52.23 - 56.59 2,555,415 (23.87%) 39 (34.82%)
100% (64.75%) 79 (72.84%) 8,913,510 51.24 - 59.23 3,322,909 (27.16%) 43 (35.25%)
all (63.71%) 79 (72.82%) 8,913,510 51.24 - 59.35 3,327,209 (27.18%) 45 (36.29%

10:00AM 2003.04.17 (GMT+1)
Nokia achieves excellent profitability in the first quarter and mobile phone volumes grow faster than market


First quarter 2003 compared with the first quarter 2002:
- Net sales were EUR 6 773 million (EUR 7 014 million in 1Q 2002), down by 3%.
- Pro forma operating profit was EUR 1 187 million (EUR 1 286 million), down by 8%. This included a gain of EUR 56 million in 1Q 2003 from the sale of the remaining shares of Nokian Tyres. Pro forma operating margin was 17.5% (18.3%).
- Pro forma adjustments for 1Q 2003 were EUR 183 million, including:
- Goodwill amortization of EUR 43 million
- Positive adjustment of EUR 226 million to 3Q 2002 customer finance impairment (MobilCom)
- Pro forma net profit was EUR 860 million (EUR 915 million), down by 6%.
- Pro forma earnings per share (diluted) were EUR 0.18 (EUR 0.19). The sale of the shares of
Nokian Tyres contributed approximately EUR 0.01.
- Reported operating profit increased by 11% to EUR 1 370 million (EUR 1 234 million).
- Reported net profit increased by 13% to EUR 977 million (EUR 863 million) and reported earnings per - share (diluted) increased to EUR 0.20 (EUR 0.18).
- Operating cash flow in the first quarter continued strongly at EUR 1.4 billion.

Thursday April 17, 11:04 AM








Mmo2 leads FTSE higher as Nokia boosts telecoms
LONDON, April 17 (Reuters) - Britain's top shares pushed higher on Thursday, with mobile firm mm02 in the lead after pleasing earnings from Finnish handset giant Nokia (Helsinki: news) soothed fears over the outlook for corporate earnings.

"I think people quite like these Nokia numbers," said one dealer. "It's a sentiment issue. It simply shows there's a European corporate that is doing well."

MmO2 (LSE: OOM.L - news - msgs) shares were up 3.4 percent, while rival Vodafone (LSE: VOD.L - news - msgs) was up one percent.

By 0957 GMT the FTSE 100 (^FTSE - news) was up 41.6 points or 1.1 percent at 3,895.4, bouncing off a session low of 3,826.1 as traders geared up for a higher opening on Wall Street.

The expiration of FTSE 100 index options earlier in the session had boosted the market as dealers scrambled to buy the underlying shares.

Merrill Lynch has upgraded mmO2 to buy with a price target of 66p, following the news that the group is selling O2 Netherlands for 25m. The broker says it is a good deal for the telecoms group and is proof that the management is keeping its shareholders in mind.

O2 adds video trials to test plans

London, April 17 2003, (netimperative)



by Susie Harwood

O2 has announced plans to trial a new mobile video service at the end of this month, which will be followed by a previously announced music-over-mobile service trial in May.


The mobile operator has picked 350 users of Nokia 7650 and Nokia 3650 handsets to take part in the video service, which will allow them to create and record up to 10 seconds of video and send it to another video capable phone or email address, and download or stream video content free of charge for a six-week period.

During the trial, users will be offered downloadable content including Sky news, sport, weather and entertainment. O2 will use its sponsorships of Arsenal football club and the England Rugby team to offer users exclusive interviews with the Arsenal manager and post match highlights, and access to footage of England Rugby internationals.

The music download service, which will let users download chart-topping songs to their phones, will begin trials in the UK and Germany next month.

Both services will run over O2's GPRS network and if the trials are successful, the company will look to launch commercial services to expand its current MMS portfolio and attract more subscribers to its GPRS network, ahead of the launch of 3G next year.

O2 is also trying to catch up with Vodafone, which has signed up more customers for its Vodafone live! service. In January, O2 announced it had signed up 80,000 UK subscribers to its new Java games and MMS portfolio by the end of last year, compared to the Vodafone live! Service, which had 90,000 UK users.

Meanwhile, the take-up of MMS services already available, such as picture messaging, should be boosted by news earlier this week that Vodafone has signed an interoperability agreement with T-Mobile, O2 and Orange that will finally allow customers to exchange picture messages with users of all the major mobile networks.

10:20 Thursday 17th April 2003
Winston Chai, CNET Asia


A climbing expedition on Everest will be able to send text messages to report their progress using a temporary wireless network
The last phone-free sanctuary has just been conquered: in a stunt to promote mobile messaging, three companies have joined hands to provide a mobile phone service up the world's highest mountain, Mount Everest.

China Mobile, one of the largest cellular operators in the mainland, has set up a temporary wireless network on the mountain to allow progress of an upcoming expedition to be documented via SMS (Short Messaging Service) and MMS (Multimedia Messaging Service).

Handset maker Motorola will provide its 388C MMS-enabled handset for message transmission while a third partner Sohu.com, a China-based Net firm, will provide content services such as exclusive reporting on its Web site.

Besides seasoned mountaineers, Charles Zhang, president and CEO of Sohu.com, will also participate in the company-sponsored climb in May, Sohu.com said in statement.

"He will use SMS and MMS throughout the journey to report on the expedition," the firm added.

While mobile coverage can be boosted by adding base stations, this is one of the first attempts to bring wireless technologies up such great altitudes.

"Generally, wireless operating equipment can only work below a height of 4,000 metres. China Mobile is the first carrier to bring wireless applications to a level above 5,100 metres," claimed China mobile spokesman Wang Hongyu.

Future alpinists hoping to tap into the Everest mobile network will be disappointed as this is a temporary publicity stunt and will not be commercially launched.

"China Mobile is setting up this system temporarily for now. Maybe in the future they will make it permanently available for climbing expeditions," said Sohu.com spokeswoman Caroline Straathof.

She did not say if there will be a ban on annoying ringtones on the rooftop of the world.

Hmmmmmmmmmm

April 20, 2003 S Times

Insider dealing: is it rising again?
The City regulator is preparing to get tough after a series of suspiciously prescient share purchases. Report by Rupert Steiner and Louise Armitstead



IN THE CITY, information is everything. Rumours and speculation that are exchanged over a coffee or a pint in the pub can be used to make a quick buck on the stock market.
But few dive in and profit from what they have heard. Insider dealing is a criminal offence and the risks are as large as the potential gains.

Last week, new concerns emerged about how information known by a small number of bankers, lawyers and advisers before a company announcement, appears to have found its way to a wider audience.

The mystery centres on recent news announced by four quoted companies. In the cases of Somerfield, the supermarket chain; MMO2, the mobile-phone operator; Amey, the building contractor; and Chubb, the security firm, big share-price rises and heavy share buying occurred just before key announcements.

The scale and the regularity of the share-price movements have led to suggestions that this is more than just a coincidence.

Some observers believe a sophisticated organisation of professionals regularly profits from illegal trading. This group has become known as the Men in Dark Glasses because of the cool way it has robbed the market without being rumbled. Past traders in the know have also had nicknames the Monaco Boys and the Gloucester Farmers were just two of the groups.

The Financial Services Authority, chaired by Sir Howard Davies, is not sure. It has launched investigations of each share-price spike in the past week, but is yet to begin a broader inquiry.

It is clear that a sizeable number of traders knew to buy shares in MM02 before it announced the disposal of a loss-making division. Its usually sleepy shares rose sharply on Monday.

About 2m Somerfield shares are usually traded each day. On Monday it was one of the most- traded stocks on the exchange, with 25m shares changing hands. A bid approach was announced the following day.

Amey shares have languished at about 20p for most of this month but closed on Tuesday at 27p. Trading volume was up by a third. The shares shot even higher on news that the company was being snapped up by Grupo Ferrovial of Spain.

On Wednesday, 15m Chubb shares changed hands before the group revealed, at 11.30am, that it had received a bid approach.The shares ended the day up 19% at 79p.

While such anecdotal evidence suggests that insider trading does take place, it remains difficult to prove that there is an organised ring at work.

Research for The Sunday Times carried out by Ernst & Young, the accountancy firm, tracked price movements in the shares of a range of companies in the five days before they issued a profit warning. It found the evidence inconclusive. For example, Dixons, the retailing group, warned on profits in January. Its share price rose 3% in the five days before the warning, while the retail sector as a whole fell 1.2%.

Yet Legal & General, which also issued a warning in January, fell almost 9% in the five days before its announcement. The life-assurance sector fell only 7% in that time. In many cases, companies that issued warnings moved in line with their sectors, making definite conclusions impossible. In fact, previous Ernst & Young research into post-warning share movements has lent weight to the view that insider trading is rare. In recent months, shares have dived as much as 18% on the day of the warning, indicating that, in many cases, traders were caught by surprise. Nonetheless, experts say London remains more vulnerable to insider trading than America, which has a tough regulator in the form of the Securities and Exchange Commission. In Britain, the old-boy network remains strong in the City, where a more old-fashioned approach based on trust exists among executives.

Critics say that firms liberally spread information among their bankers, lawyers, compliance officers and advisers, and that Chinese walls can develop cracks.

There is also the problem of communicating corporate acquisitions and disposals to staff. Most businesses feel an obligation to get the corporate message across before a deal is announced publicly lest staff read about it in the media first. The timing of an announcement to staff, many of whom may be shareholders, can leave a company exposed.

Many observers have blamed the FSA for not doing enough to stamp out market abuse. But the regulator is expected to flex its muscles within days and hit a company for market misbehaviour and breaches of regulation. The breach may have taken place before the FSA was awarded new wide-ranging powers, but the message will be clear: the FSA is getting tough with market abusers.

In 2001, 14 cases of insider trading were brought to trial, 10 of which were successfully prosecuted. Five more prosecutions occurred last year, of which two were successful.

The case of Tim Blackstone, the former financial journalist turned public-relations adviser, received the most publicity. Blackstone bought shares in a client, Murray Financial, in the knowledge that it was to receive a takeover bid. He sold the shares after the announcement was made and took a 3,000 profit.

Although Blackstone was caught, he hardly represents big-fry to the FSA. Not only was the deal small, but it was hopelessly amateurish and took little sleuthing to detect. Blackstone traded in his own name and then admitted everything in court. As a result he was given a slap on the wrist in court and received a nominal 1,000 fine.

In fact, the last time a big name was convicted of insider trading was in the late 1980s when Geoffrey Collier, one of Morgan Grenfells top executives, was fined 25,000.


Additional reporting by Lucinda Kemeny and Jessica Shepperd.

Erskine brushes aside speculation over merger deals for mmO2
Business Profile: Mobile chief vows to be 'stingy with the cash' despite Dutch disposal
By Liz Vaughan-Adams
22 April 2003


Peter Erskine should, by rights, be happy. Selling mmO2's loss-making Dutch business has resuscitated interest in the mobile phone operator, won the chief executive respect in the City and sent the stock on an upward path.

Yet a day after the announcement, it's business as usual over at the company's headquarters in Stockley Park, Uxbridge and if the chief executive is happier than usual, you'd never know.




http://news.independent.co.uk/business/news_analysis/story.jsp?story=399287

With typical understatement, he says of the deal: "In today's environment in Holland, I think we've done well." Worse, though, are the hints he drops that any future excitement is more likely to come simply from making the business perform better.

L2? It hit an intraday low of 52.25 due to the above news. Perhaps it will go lower!

I think they will recover later but market is slow and weak after BH

Nas futures -5



Buy orders Sell orders
Num(%) Num Vol(%) Vol VWAP Vol Vol(%) Num Num(%)
1% (57.14%) 12 (66.97%) 1,469,308 52.59 - 53.09 724,792 (33.03%) 9 (42.86%)
5% (62.07%) 18 (75.24%) 2,627,739 52.23 - 53.23 864,792 (24.76%) 11 (37.93%)
10% (58.33%) 28 (72.08%) 3,906,239 51.96 - 53.92 1,513,415 (27.92%) 20 (41.67%)
15% (48.61%) 35 (73.53%) 5,311,309 51.15 - 54.46 1,911,635 (26.47%) 37 (51.39%)
50% (45.57%) 36 (67.60%) 5,811,309 50.63 - 55.90 2,785,109 (32.40%) 43 (54.43%)
100% (46.43%) 39 (67.28%) 5,831,429 50.57 - 56.06 2,835,801 (32.72%) 45 (53.57%)
all (45.35%) 39 (67.25%) 5,831,429 50.57 - 56.20 2,840,101 (32.75%) 47 (54.65%

This has indeed recovered quite dramatically to 54.25 inline with +ve US futures now.

Yes ..... intraday indicated a bottoming out from around 0900 hrs to just after 1000 hrs ....


nas uc - sector plus 0.67%





Buy orders Sell orders
Num(%) Num Vol(%) Vol VWAP Vol Vol(%) Num Num(%)
1% (41.67%) 10 (44.33%) 775,828 53.90 - 54.73 974,349 (55.67%) 14 (58.33%)
5% (46.67%) 14 (58.35%) 1,416,970 53.71 - 54.76 1,011,449 (41.65%) 16 (53.33%)
10% (51.67%) 31 (79.75%) 5,280,988 52.72 - 55.13 1,340,669 (20.25%) 29 (48.33%)
15% (55.56%) 45 (77.06%) 7,609,658 52.01 - 56.67 2,264,839 (22.94%) 36 (44.44%)
50% (55.17%) 48 (77.72%) 7,964,558 51.84 - 56.70 2,283,143 (22.28%) 39 (44.83%)
100% (55.91%) 52 (78.43%) 8,484,678 51.39 - 56.88 2,333,835 (21.57%) 41 (44.09%)
all (54.74%) 52 (78.40%) 8,484,678 51.39 - 57.05 2,338,135 (21.60%) 43 (45.26%

late 3.9 mill buy now showing

Ains what does it look like now and will this close @55? I thought with the Varney quote this would stay down and hence have missed out on a great opportunity earlier. Currently↑2% @55.

The Varney thingy didn't help early on but the sector is holding it's own with exception of BT.

1.53 billion text messages were sent in Feb


Markets are marginally down but sector is up 0.35% and oom up 0.93% - chart intraday looks promising but subject to a market downturn



ains



Buy orders Sell orders
Num(%) Num Vol(%) Vol VWAP Vol Vol(%) Num Num(%)
1% (48.28%) 14 (45.00%) 2,145,682 54.16 - 54.92 2,622,032 (55.00%) 15 (51.72%)
5% (45.24%) 19 (50.31%) 3,245,018 53.96 - 55.03 3,205,600 (49.69%) 23 (54.76%)
10% (44.44%) 36 (60.31%) 6,347,526 53.31 - 55.30 4,177,099 (39.69%) 45 (55.56%)
15% (46.30%) 50 (62.58%) 8,865,226 52.77 - 56.08 5,302,073 (37.42%) 58 (53.70%)
50% (48.67%) 55 (65.46%) 10,050,296 52.30 - 56.08 5,302,073 (34.54%) 58 (51.33%)
100% (49.58%) 59 (66.38%) 10,570,416 51.92 - 56.17 5,352,765 (33.62%) 60 (50.42%)
all (48.76%) 59 (66.37%) 10,570,416 51.92 - 56.24 5,357,065 (33.63%) 62 (51.24%)

fyi


Eire Cuts

38,000 go live! in Ireland

Vodafone Ireland has signed up 38,000 live! subscribers since the service was introduced on 6 November. Since then, more than 800,000 picture messages have been sent over the Irish network.

In addition, 50,000 Java games and 200,000 polyphonic ring tones were downloaded by customers to their handsets. There have been more than five million GPRS 'calls' to the Vodafone live! menu and 800,000 e-mails sent via Vodafone mail.

The Irish network's contribution to the group total is four per cent, which was hailed by Paul Donavan as a "tremendous achievement", indicating higher mobile usage levels in Ireland, compared with the rest of Europe.

A recent study of Irish mobile brand awareness by Millward Brown placed Vodafone at the top, with an 88 per cent total for spontaneous awareness, just 12 months after rebranding from rcell.

The survey showed that Vodafone was the best recognised brand - 'top of the mind' with 55 per cent of the sample (O2 achieved 23 per cent, and Meteor five per cent).

O2 scales back 3G roll-out

O2 ireland is proposing to cut its 3G roll-out costs in rural areas by adding EDGE technology to its existing infrastructure, reserving 3G for urban and other highly populated areas where bandwidth use is expected to be profitable.

There has been no response from regulator ComReg to the O2 submission, but it is unlikely to be enthusiastic at its attempt to modify a primary 3G licence obligation at such a late stage in the game - effectively reducing customer choice in rural areas. O2 Ireland is expected to achieve margin improvements in the second half of its financial year to 31 March 2003.

Pre-tax earnings from the Irish division rose 22 per cent in the six months to September. Turnover rose 11 per cent, helped by 43,000 new connections in the last quarter of 2002, bringing the number of customers on the O2 Irish network to 1.25 million.

Meteor queries roaming rule

Hot on the heels of O2's submission to ComReg over modifying its 3G roll-out, Meteor Mobile is unimpressed that it has not received a response concerning incumbent networks providing national roaming.

Meteor has called again for the regulator to look at the issue. The proposal is that Meteor would have access to competitors' rural networks. In return it would provide bandwidth to these networks in urban areas to relieve congestion.

"They don't want to admit it, but Vodafone and O2 have capacity problems", said Meteor Mobile corporate affairs director Andrew Kelly.

Meanwhile, Meteor has launched a media campaign and marketing offensive to change the perception of Meteor as a network with only urban coverage. Print and TV commercials are already running, but these appear to be more brand awareness-driven than an attempt to sell the network to potential customers.

Analysts suggest that Hutchison 3G is considering an acquisition of Meteor's GSM network as a base for future activities in the Republic, but the networks themselves continue to deny the idea. Meteor Mobile has just four per cent market share.

Mayo partnerships

C&C Cellular, claimed to be County Mayo's largest mobile retailer, has announced a partnership arrangement with O2 Ireland.

C&C has six retail outlets in Mayo - operating from Ballina, Westport, Ballinrobe, Swinford, Castlebar and Claremorris. O2 will continue to invest in improving mobile communications in Mayo with a view to sustaining growth and innovation in the region.

3G lands in N Ireland

Three counties in Northern Ireland now have access to 3G services; Antrim, Down and Derry. Hutchison 3G's 3 network is providing its high bandwidth video services across most of Belfast, as far south as Lisburn along the M1, and north along the M2 to Antrim town.

Derry also has primary coverage within the city, but this presently hands over to the O2 GSM network, as service between Derry and Belfast is not contiguous. Like the UK, congestion is unlikely to be a problem. A quick poll of Ulster dealers revealed nobody had handsets in stock. Coverage in the south of the province is not expected until December at the earliest, according to Vodafone's Paul Donovan.

Rugby texting

O2 has launched a text initiative designed to generate a million 'good luck' messages for the Irish Rugby Team. The person who sends the most creative 'good luck' text will win a trip for two to see Ireland play Australia in Perth on June 7. O2 will contribute 17c to the IRFU Charitable Trust for every text message received.

Fans text the word PERTH, followed by 53101. Each message sent will cost a maximum of 61c. O2's Gerry McQuaid, commented:

"We are proud sponsors of Irish Rugby at both national and local levels and we expect our initiative will generate over a million 'good luck' messages for the Irish team between now and May 24".





Buy orders Sell orders
Num(%) Num Vol(%) Vol VWAP Vol Vol(%) Num Num(%)
1% (45.45%) 15 (50.84%) 2,373,376 54.19 - 55.14 2,295,229 (49.16%) 18 (54.55%)
5% (40.00%) 20 (53.98%) 3,472,712 53.99 - 55.33 2,960,855 (46.02%) 30 (60.00%)
10% (46.25%) 37 (66.48%) 6,575,220 53.35 - 55.47 3,314,802 (33.52%) 43 (53.75%)
15% (48.57%) 51 (67.36%) 9,092,920 52.82 - 56.35 4,405,276 (32.64%) 54 (51.43%)
50% (50.91%) 56 (70.00%) 10,277,990 52.34 - 56.35 4,405,276 (30.00%) 54 (49.09%)
100% (51.72%) 60 (70.79%) 10,798,110 51.97 - 56.45 4,455,968 (29.21%) 56 (48.28%)
all (50.85%) 60 (70.77%) 10,798,110 51.97 - 56.54 4,460,268 (29.23%) 58 (49.15%)

moving ahead quite nicely now as the FTSE gets going northwards

This was from earlier this morning .....

Williams de Broe takes a negative stance on European mobile phone stocks with sell ratings for Orange, mmO2 and Vodafone

This seems to have overcome morning weakness & getting really strong. Does L2 +ve?

seems to be a pattern




Buy orders Sell orders
Num(%) Num Vol(%) Vol VWAP Vol Vol(%) Num Num(%)
1% (38.71%) 12 (39.06%) 1,179,180 56.13 - 56.93 1,839,449 (60.94%) 19 (61.29%)
5% (42.11%) 16 (38.48%) 1,425,034 56.03 - 57.04 2,278,013 (61.52%) 22 (57.89%)
10% (56.06%) 37 (60.95%) 4,344,568 55.17 - 57.23 2,783,493 (39.05%) 29 (43.94%)
15% (61.45%) 51 (64.55%) 5,101,576 54.82 - 57.25 2,801,797 (35.45%) 32 (38.55%)
50% (59.77%) 52 (64.23%) 5,301,576 54.64 - 57.65 2,952,489 (35.77%) 35 (40.23%)
100% (61.96%) 57 (65.59%) 5,626,596 54.21 - 57.65 2,952,489 (34.41%) 35 (38.04%)
all (60.64%) 57 (65.55%) 5,626,596 54.21 - 57.78 2,956,789 (34.45%) 37 (39.36%