how do you see the dow index going today Dow Jones and S&P commentary: Signal Watch Dr Bob Hard Right Edge Raptor Research Charting by Snoball: Dow Chart S&P Chart Drinks & Break Time at: GD's Famous Tea Room & Watering Hole"

DOW JONES @ LIVECHARTS

Just watching the dow atm. no positions open.
Closed the cable long in good profit. so that will hopefully make for a good weekend and any quick scalps if possible on the dow will be bonus for the slush fund.

rgds
zarif

Tom Hougards thoughts for todays market.
rgds
zarif
Good morning,



Thursday was a bit of a disappointment for the bulls but there was no real damage done to the chart. I hope some of you caught the 18:00 turn which came in bang on time. We are still bullish above 1132 and this can now be extended to 1138. I think we are in the quarter-end mark up period but I dont think institutions intend to take stocks too much further. There are 4 days left of the quarter. Today can go either way and I will favour the long side above 1138. There are clearly some items on the exogenous agenda that can and potentially will shake the market a little. The FED meeting is next week, and the Iraq handover is taking place. You also got the Russell 2000 re-weighting in this major index which will require some adjusting of the big portfolios.



I will keep todays analysis short. I dont see any real reason to be bearish right now. It was mixed bag yesterday but stocks like Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, Citi Group and Lehman all had good reversals and the strength in the financials is usually a good sign for the general market.



For today I got another 18:00 UK time turn. I wont be trading of course as I will be warming up shouting and cheering for Denmark. J



Have a nice weekend.



Tom

Hi guys/Gals.
I have added the Live charts link above and it is a mine full of information on indices,currencies etc etc.

rgds
zarif

- Indexes closed mixed, poised for next week.
- GDP pulled lower by surging imports, Michigan sentiment rises.
- Fed ready to raise rates, but cautious of Japan lesson.
- Good finish to a solid week as semiconductors come to life.
- Big week, market ready to run ahead of the actual news.
Stocks hold gains ahead of important week.

The major indexes finished mixed with semiconductors, techs and smaller caps closing higher, DJ30 and the large cap SP500 closing lower. In the end they all closed around the highs for the week, mostly maintaining the solid gains that occurred when the market suddenly found volume on Tuesday and Wednesday. Not blowout volume, but a return to solid trade after a couple of months of low volume drift.

Why are we not throwing Friday volume into that mix? Because volume was snoozing until the close. It was the final day for the rebalancing of all of the Russell indexes, however, and though funds had 10 days to accomplish the feat, it appears that they, much as teenagers writing a term paper, waited until the night before to do their homework. NASDAQ volume was a sleepy 1.2B with less than 30 minutes left. It finished at 2.67B. NYSE experienced an uptick as well, coming in at 1.8B. Stocks went wild at the close with massive market on close orders sending stocks down, up and then back to where they were just moments before.

That volume left things looking different at the close versus 20 minutes earlier. Before that influence, however, stocks were mostly holding steady on lower volume, down from the session highs but holding up as they moved into another weekend filled with high anxiety about the stepped up Iraq violence. After a nice move Tuesday and Wednesday, stocks stood by their gains as they took a breather, and are poised to move higher Monday and Tuesday ahead of the FOMC meeting and the Iraq handover. If stocks do continue the move as we anticipate, that will put NASDAQ near the April highs. At that point and when the anticipation becomes fact, the market may have a bit of a struggle.

That is one reason we issued several alerts taking some interim option gains that were building up nicely as stocks had moved up well last week but started to falter over lunch. It was worth locking in some solid gain ahead of the weekend and we will look at doing the same ahead of the mid-week headlines on a further move. We still anticipate a move up into that news barring any major Iraq or other geopolitical event, and that will rack up more gains that we will look at banking ahead of the news.

THE ECONOMY

Final Q1 GDP 3.9%, below 4.4% expected.

It all depends upon where you get your news as to what view you have of the economic data that comes out. Many stories we saw on GDP only talked about how it was below expectations and down for the second straight quarter (4.1% final in Q4). That of course is not the best news for the economy, but it is not the negative impression that many of the stories left you with as they left out key facts that complete the picture.

The primary story is how GDP is calculated. GDP measures production here in the US. In Q1 consumers bought a lot of imported goods. A lot. Imports are deducted from GDP because they are not created domestically. The US consumer, however, buys foreign and domestic goods with equal enthusiasm when he or she feels confident about the future. IN Q1 the import purchases were much greater than expected, so much so that they were the primary cause of the fall in GDP from 4.4% to 3.9%. Without the imports, GDP would have been right up with expectations.

This always causes a lot of angst with economy watchers who refuse to factor in consumption of foreign goods as an indication of a strong domestic consumer. In addition there are other indications than the consumer; the big surge in imports masks them in final GDP. Thus the headlines about a weak GDP are somewhat disingenuous, but when you are in a political campaign year, the 'facts' are often adjusted to fit the purposes of the writer.

Not that the economy is surging, but it is not crumbling either.

ECRI's weekly leading index slid again the past week, continuing the string of lower indications the past month. As noted last week, this does not mean the expansion is over, it just means it is slowing from a very solid pace. New home sales surged in May, existing home sales (84% of the market) jumped 2.6%, corporate profits were up 2.1% in Q1 over Q4, much better than the 1.4% reported in May. That was slower than the huge 7.6% jump in Q4, but the pace is still solid overall.

It is important to remember that the economy moves ahead in spurts and then pauses, all the while maintaining its trend. In our society of instant information, we spend way, way, way too much time looking at not just the trees, but the individual twigs and leaves as well. The daily, even hourly, economic reports tend to obscure the bigger picture if we don't keep grounded in the bigger picture.

We continue to see signs of slowing ahead, but not a catastrophic drop in the economy. There is some uncertainty as to the future with the Fed about to embark on a rate hiking move, and that has, based on our surveys of businesses, put a bit of a slowdown on future investment. It has not stalled it, but uncertainty is the hemming in the strength of the expansion as some plans for investment and hiring are put off a bit longer just to see what happens. The Fed's history of killing off expansions casts a long shadow

The Fed's tightrope walk.

While the world is certain inflation is rising in the US, there are many undercurrents that the Fed has to be concerned with, and from what we hear from our friends at the central bank, the Fed is aware of them.

High energy cost paradox.

One that we have discussed in the past month is the paradox of higher energy prices. Oil prices have finally hit a peak and are hovering between $36 and $38/bbl. All of that production has had some impact and we anticipate it will continue to weigh on prices a bit more. They are still high, however, high enough to crimp the economy. Higher energy prices can pass through to consumer prices at some point. They have not in the last few price spikes, but that is always a threat. Higher consumer prices caused by rising energy prices can be called inflation, but it is not the textbook definition, i.e., more dollars chasing fewer goods. Energy price hikes are different from other price increases, however, because they work to slow the economy. Thus if the Fed raises rates because prices rise as a result of rising energy prices, that has basically a double if not even further magnified slowing effect on the economy. Just ask the 1970's Fed that raised rates to combat rising energy prices. All we got were incredibly high interest rates to go along with an incredibly depressed economy.

The Japan lesson.

The Japanese depression is the other undercurrent the Fed has to factor in. We swung from deflation fears to inflation fears in just about record time. Deflation was still a topic de jour the second half of last year, even among FOMC governors. Now it is not mentioned. Much.

Not many remember or ever knew or cared, but before Japan really went down the rat hole in the 1980's it looked as if it was recovering. After the first stock market bust similar to the US market's April to May 2000 plunge that took NASDAQ down 40%, the Japanese economy slumped as well, but then stabilized and appeared to be rebounding. The Japanese central bank was ready to stave off inflation that could crimp the recovery, so it hiked interest rates gradually. Problem was, the economy was not nearly as strong as they thought. The problems that gave rise to the collapse were deep rooted; the secular downtrend was in place, and the apparent recovery was just a bounce back in a bigger downtrend. The rate hikes simply put a few more bullet holes in an already declining economy.

The Fed is aware of what happened in Japan. Here in the US the pundits like to say that the US reacted differently, lowering rates rapidly and injecting fiscal stimulus into the system with tax cuts. That is true. As we noted during the recession and slow recovery, however, the Fed was behind the curve in lower rates, never getting ahead of real rates to the downside and thus providing incentives to borrow until after the fiscal stimulus had come into play. That helped prolong the decline and mitigated the recovery.

Now we are now 21 months from the market bottom, the true measure of when to start the clock for an economic recovery. We have had some very strong economic growth rates and the economy has expanded nicely, but we also have major problems facing us. We are at war, we have the threat of nuclear attack here at home, federal spending remains out of control. It is sickeningly ironic that our leaders ask us to sacrifice when their proposed highway bill has so much extravagance and pork in it. They say the entrepreneurs must sacrifice but at the same time funnel tax dollars to feed the fat man as President Reagan called the federal government.

The point: while everyone is concerned about inflation, we see signs of slowing economic activity down the road. Just look at commodities prices. The CRB peaked in March and has been trending lower since. The CRB industrials index did likewise. Commodities indicate that China has in fact slowed its economy, and as we are arguing, the US economy is slowing as well. Right now it is not an immediate problem, but with sustained higher energy costs that are working to slow the economy already, a series of rate hikes could accelerate the slowing already occurring. The growth rates have been impressive, but we have come through some very strange times. Stock prices started out at relatively high P/E's when the recovery began. There is another world war of sorts ongoing, and that has a way of bleeding economies. While there may be signs of near term price increases that need to be recognized and addressed, there are also big macro currents that raise the possibility of another undulation lower. Thus clamping down on growth by rate hikes is not the way to rectify the perceived price problem. Instead, actively promote supply with incentives to continue investing in the US. That way you address the price issues by increasing supply, and you also build up economic activity to help stave off any bigger picture macroeconomic downturn.

For now that is not even a consideration. There are two different camps in this political fight: making tax cuts and current stimulus current or cut it back, redistribute it, and then increase federal spending even more with national healthcare, etc. Both sides need to figure out spending is the real problem and slash federal spending. Cut the spending and let the taxpayers decide where their money should best be spent. The way both sides are racing to spend our money, that won't happen anytime soon.

THE MARKET

Stocks fought off the weaker GDP number and showed some early strength. While they backed off by the close, they did not roll over and they did not give up their higher volume gains from earlier in the week. The large caps and blue chips had a harder time late in the session, but overall stocks are poised to continue the move that started mid-week on rising volume.

The big difference in the market last week was the resurgence of the semiconductors. They rallied off some support at 450, paused after breaking the 50 day EMA, and are now heading toward the 200 day SMA (488) where they failed twice in the past month. Another good rally puts SOX right at that resistance. Whether it breaks through or fails will key the rest of the market's move. We anticipate the rally to resume ahead of the FOMC and Iraq handover Wednesday, and that would put SOX at the 200 day SMA and perhaps a bit beyond toward 500. Just as with the April highs on NASDAQ and SP500, that won't be easy for SOX to break through, at least on the first try. Volume will have to be even better than last week to clear those next levels.

Again, it is set up to move higher to try the next levels early this week, but moving significantly past those levels will be difficult unless there is a true change of market character.

Market Sentiment

Bulls vs. bears: Bulls backed off last week to 54.6% after hitting over 56% the prior week. 55% bullish advisors is a bearish sign, but the market rallied in any event. As noted last week, there was the 'indicators don't work anymore' feeling on the floor, and that is often the signal that at least near term there is enough pessimism to start a move higher. With bulls still near the 55% level and bears still low at 18.6% (20% is considered bearish), sustained upside will be hard to come by. Still, remember that these are secondary indicators. Price and volume action along with leadership stocks are the primary indicators as to the market's next move. Last week saw a good volume resumption of the rally that has some more upside in it.

VIX: 15.19; +0.38
VXN: 18.96; -0.4
VXO: 14.89; +0.5

Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 0.68; +0.02

NASDAQ

One of the market leaders last week, NASDAQ posted another gain Friday, just eclipsing the early Junee highs. In good position to make a run at the April highs heading into the FOMC meeting.

Stats: +9.9 points (+0.49%) to close at 2025.47
Volume: 2.671B (+55.72%). Huge volume in the last few minutes made it look like an accumulation session. Before that surge, however, volume was 1.2B, well off pace from earlier in the week.

Up Volume: 1.728B (+968M)
Down Volume: 904M (+24M)

A/D and Hi/Lo: Advancers led 1.41 to 1. Not bad breadth for a slow session.
Previous Session: Advancers led 1.09 to 1

New Highs: 168 (+41)
New Lows: 84 (+54)

Once again rallied over the Junee high (2024) to 2033 before backing off at the close. Held the break over the Junee high but it was hard to quantify the action with the huge late volume surge. Before that surge volume was light, so the move was pensive. It has, however, left the NASDAQ in good position to continue the break higher. The initial targets are the late April high (2059) and early April high (2079). From there it is a matter of whether the move can gain additional strength.

The large cap techs put together a decent move itself though volume again eased, coming in well below average on QQQ. NDX, the full strength measure of the large cap techs showed solid volume heading into the weekend. QQQ and NDX have formed nice patterns and are ready for a break higher early in the week.

S&P 500/NYSE

The large cap names along with the blue chips took the hardest beating, falling back hard late as a lot of money moved around in the Russell rebalancing.

Stats: -6.22 points (-0.55%) to close at 1134.43
NYSE Volume: 1.817B (+30.29%). Huge volume jump late in the session. With less than a half hour left volume was just over 1B. Thus the selling was not distribution.

Up Volume: 841M (+240M)
Down Volume: 938M (+158M)

A/D and Hi/Lo: Advancers led 1.22 to 1. Very modest breadth but still positive even on a downside session.
Previous Session: Advancers led 1.06 to 1

New Highs: 149 (-56)
New Lows: 30 (+7)

Again cleared the early Junee high (1142) on the high, but was unable to hold the advance. It was holding up well until when it fell off the table with all of the market on close orders. It managed to hold roughly at the 10 day EMA (1134) and the 2004 down trendline. Despite the late dump lower, this leaves it in good position to move higher early this week. A 16 point move to April high (1150) with the January to March highs (1158-1163) realistically in range as well given NASDAQ still has plenty of upside before it gets to hits April high.

DJ30

The blue chips were hammered on the close similar to SP500 with the likes of GE and XOM getting clubbed. It fell through the 10 day EMA (10,390), but it is hanging on in the recent range. Unlike NASDAQ, it gave back its gain from mid-week. It is still holding up and ready to move with the rest of the market if SP500 and NASDAQ can recover and resume the break higher.

Stats: -71.97 points (-0.69%) to close at 10371.84
Volume: 308 million shares Friday versus 214 million shares Thursday. Big volume on both upside and downside moves, again with much of the volume and movement coming at the close basically requires you to toss out the volume for this index as well.

THIS WEEK

Big week in all respects. The market broke higher on solid volume last week, paused, and is set to resume the move ahead of the Wednesday FOMC announcement regarding interest rates and the Iraq handover. The latter is not like, say Y2K, that was over on a date specific. It is an important date, however, for the effort in Iraq. The economic data is also huge with ISM, personal income and spending, consumer confidence, and the June employment report. All of this comes before the July 4 three-day holiday, another date brought up as a possible terrorist threat.

That is a lot to digest at any time. We still anticipate stocks moving higher in anticipation of the Wednesday events as they continue to price in the possibilities on the idea of the events. Once they are here we have to see how the markets react. Key resistance lies ahead at the April and January highs; again, volume will have to be much improved for the indexes to take those levels out and continue higher.

In addition, the second half of July is never really kind to stocks. They move up into earnings, rally some on the first solid results, but then run out of steam. Q3 estimates are being written higher toward 26% already, so guidance will have to be good to keep stocks moving higher. We don't see anything to change the pattern this time around, but as always, if the market shows strong volume pushing higher, we will let the market lead the way.

What we are going to focus on this week are stocks that have made good moves and in the softer market Thursday and Friday have pulled back to test those moves. When they start back up they have proven the breakout as they have passed the test. Those show very good support and often cruise right on up in a rally. We won't turn down good patterns of any sort, but with the market already having run well and with the potential to run up to the big news Wednesday and then pullback, we don't want to into too many new positions that don't have much time or room to run.

Again, we won't pass up great patterns making strong moves, however. Why? Because leading stocks making strong moves in good patterns are one of the top indicators of what the market is going to do. Further, those stocks move farther and faster, and hold up better if the market does hit some rocks. It all goes back to seeing the big picture of what can happen and what is likely to happen, but also being smart enough to know that the market is the final decision maker. Take what the market gives and be happy with that.

Support and Resistance

NASDAQ: Closed at 2025.47
Resistance:
2024 is the June high. Not totally broken here.
2050 represents some prior price points and has stopped NASDAQ the last time it tried that level.
April high is 2080.
2089 is the February closing high. 2112 is the early January high.


Support:
2000 is the top of the late 2003 base.
1998 is the January/April down trendline.
The 18 day EMA (1992)
The 200 day SMA (1975).
1925 is some support.
1900 to 1890.
The April lows (1880, 1878).

S&P 500: Closed at 1134.43
Resistance:
1142 is the June high.
The April and January highs (1150 to 1155).
Next is 1159 (February highs) and 1160 to 1175 the highs in that double top that spanned late 2001, early 2002.

Support:
The March/April down trendline at 1133.
The 18 day EMA (1130).
1125 is key support.
The 50 day EMA (1124) and the 50 day SMA (1119).
1106 is a May 2002 top and represents some early 2001 lows. 1096 to 1100.
The 200 day SMA (1096)

Dow: Closed at 10,371.84
Resistance:
Late April peaks at 10,478 to 10,512
10,570 is the early April high
Price consolidation at 10,600 level
10,747 is the February high

Support:
The 18 day EMA (10,348)
The January/April down trendline at 10,315
The 50 day EMA (10,294) and SMA (10,255).
Price support at 10,250
The 200 day SMA at 10,148
March low at 10,007. Then 9900-9850.

Economic Calendar

These are consensus expectations. Our expectations will vary and are discussed in the 'Economy' section.

June 28
- Personal Income, May (08:30): 0.5% expected and 0.6% prior
- Personal Spending, May (08:30): 0.8% expected and 0.3% prior

June 29
- Consumer Confidence, June (10:00): 95.0 expected and 93.2 prior

June 30
- Chicago PMI, June (10:00): 64.5 expected and 68.0 prior
- FOMC Meeting (2:15): Expecting a 25 basis point rate hike as forecast by the Fed funds futures contract.

July 1
- Auto Sales, June: 5.6M expected and 5.7M prior
- Truck Sales, June: 8.0M expected and 8.5M prior
- Initial Jobless Claims, 06/26 (08:30): 349K prior
- Construction Spending, May (10:00):.5% expected and 1.3% prior
- ISM Index, June (10:00): 61.2 expected and 62.8 prior

July 02
- Non-farm Payrolls, June (08:30): 240K expected and 248K prior
- Unemployment Rate, June (08:30): 5.6% expected and 5.6% prior
- Hourly Earnings, June (08:30): 0.3% expected and 0.3% prior
- Average Workweek, June (08:30): 33.9 expected and 33.8 prior
- Factory Orders, May (10:00): 1.5% expected and -1.7% prior

insider trader:
A very good morning to you and thanking you for your comprehensive report.Please keep posting and all comments good/bad are welcome.
rgds
zarif

Tom hougaards thoughts for today

Good morning,



There are a couple of things on the agenda today and this week which can influence the market or will influence the market.



The Iraq handover has been completed. I dont know if this will have an effect but the markets seem to like it. The US futures are pricing in a rise on the open today. (I got today as a positive day and most of the week points higher).



The Russell 2000 re-weighting of stocks plays havoc with the market. At least that is what we saw on Friday. Certain Dow stocks dropped a full dollar in seconds going into the close (our chief dealer was furious as we settle Dow bets according to the cash price, and the Dow kept ticking away for another 10 minutes after the close). The Dow dropped 30 points after the closeJ. The re-weighting may continue for the rest of the month, i.e. next 3 days.



The end of the quarter is coming up and this will almost always bring about attempt to push prices higher to mark up portfolios.



Finally we got the FOMC meeting this week which should bring about some decent volatility.



As for the technials we got a lovely mixed picture. The NASDAQ looks strongest of the lot while the SP500 and the Dow got some catching up to do. However, as long as the SP500 holds above 1132 I will lean on the bullish side. Below 1128 in the SP500 will be a bearish development for the index. We are coming into a strong period of the year and I have this week mapped out to be mostly rising prices. You should also be aware that the month of July and August historically is the strongest of the year together with December. As we are in an election year this should be even more evident.



Tom

If anybody is interested in attending the Yorkshire traders group meeting which is run by Tim Leleux (aka THE PRIEST).the details are below.

This months meeting is Thursday July 1st at 7:30pm, Crowne Plaza, Wellington Street, Leeds

managed a quick long and short the dow so far. Also had a good long on the cable and have put in a short now.

rgds
zarif

Will do Zarif.

Insider Trader:
Look forward to meeting you on Thursday.
rgds
zarif

Tom Hougaards thoughts for todays market
rgds
zarif
Good morning,



I will readily admit that I was surprised in a major way by the weakness yesterday evening. I dont know what caused the market to reverse like it. It doesnt really matter. Maybe there is liquidation of a portfolio or maybe it is the rebalancing of the Russell 2000 index. One thing I know is that support is 1132 and this will have to hold otherwise I will lean back on the short side.



The Fed meeting is tomorrow evening and maybe the selling was related to this. Either way we should know today if there is any more selling coming because if it is liquidation the seller will have to get the selling done over the next 12 trading hours. The US futures dipped down to 1127 overnight so we could see more downside today. Usually someone knows something and they will sell ahead to hedge themselves or front run the market. A lot depends on how weak Europe will open up in 20 minutes time.



I am cautiously optimistic that we will see higher prices as long as we can hold this area around 1132. For today I do have a dip near the open and a turn later on today. I suspect volume will dry up going in the FOMC meeting tomorrow, but I also know for a fact that institutions will do anything to keep prices afloat ahead of the 30th June mark-to-market cut off date. As the funds have to be fully invested I will bet that they will hold the market higher. As I stated over the weekend the market favours dip buying this week.



The good news in my mind is that the quarter-end is nearly over and I suspect we will see a 2-3 week straight line move beginning in early July.



Good luck today



Tom

Not trading indexes, but long csco, and looking at hnz and intc for longs and aa short, should get some movement when the movers and shakers get back from their indulgent lunches :-)

Saxo bank analyis and views on the market for today
rgds
zarif

Published: Jun. 30 2004,
This market is whipsawing bulls and bears as FOMC is imminent.


Latest action reverses yesterday's bearish top and looks to higher levels - but still plenty of data on tap.





Note: I'm filling in temporarily for Mr. Robert Balan, who will return to this space on Monday, July 5. I will publish this column once daily in early US hours. - John Hardy

June 30, 2004 - New YorkImportant Data this week:

Today: Chicago PMI for June (US) at 14:00 GMT, FOMC Rate Decision (US) at 18:15 GMT, Tankan Survey for June (Japan) at 23:50 GMT
Thursday: Manufacturing PMI (Europe), ECB Announces Rates (EU), ISM Manufacturing (US)
Friday: Unemployment Rate and Nonfarm Payrolls (US)
My stab yesterday at predicting a weak Consumer Confidence number based on recent Bush approval ratings was a misstep indeed, as the confidence reading surged to the highest level in 2 years. Apparently the falling of prices at the gas pump and perception and headlines about job growth are having a bigger impact than I would have expected... This helped spark a rally that reversed the previous day's sell-off and gave many traders, including myself, a case of whiplash.

Volume and breadth was nothing to write home about yesterday, but it was interesting to note the kind of stocks that outperformed: semiconductors, Amazon.com, and the like. A very risk-willing market indeed. And the Russell 2000 index, another good risk-willingness measure, managed a new two-month high before retreating slightly at the close. But the broader market will also need to join in if we are to see this rally continue for much longer.

The pivot point today is, of course, the FOMC meeting, with the rate announcement (we STRONGLY believe in a 0.25% hike, which is also the market expectation - a 0.50% hike is a true longshot) coming at 18:15 GMT. The accompanying statement will be one of the most closely scrutinized ever, with signs of more hawkishness than expected the feared scenario - making a dovish tone (for example, a simple repeat of the existing statement) the surprise. I suspect the Fed will adjust it to a slightly more hawkish tone with an adjustment of a word here and there, but will not come out with guns blazing. The market will likely find this acceptable, but the market will be extremely volatile on stronger than expected language, or a 50 basis point move..

The latest action has me expecting the blow-off top scenario sooner rather than later, but I have little confidence in the market's (or my own!) predictability at this point. I'd still like to see how things look on the other side of Friday.

Equity Technicals:

Technicals in this section refer to the September futures for each instrument.


- DAX Index - The DAX is maintaining a tight range after making a marginal new high above 4100 today. The outlook is bullish barring a fall back through 4050, with 4200 the first upside target.

- FTSE 100 Index - The action on the FTSE remains uninspiring, but if there is enough strength elsewhere, it may be able to stave off a fall below 4470 minor support and drift back towards 4550 area resistance.

- S&P 500 - The index rallied after three days of selling off, but still needs to break free of 1150 area resistance to get the bullish theme fully back on track, a scenario that seems favored barring a dip below 1130 again.

- Dow Jones Ind Ave. - The Dow survived its test of the 10300 support area and bounced strongly. That bounce may continue towards 10800 if 10300 is not revisited on the downside.

- NDX 100 - The Nasdaq defied gravity and rallied strong despite the previous day's massive sell-off on the gap higher opening. This is giving trader's whiplash, but the force of the upmove still points upward toward the 1550 top unless 1490 support is taken out once again.

managed a good long on the cable and am short at the moment and in profit will close it soon then wait till fed time.
My thinking is as follows:

Fed days usually follow the pattern of tight range into 19:00 and then move back into 19:15, followed by 2-3 spikes and then the direction....


so going to harass the kids for a while and a cuppa tea.

rgds
zarif

my list of about 10 nas/amex equities just seems to be chopping about with no real progress just yet. have learnt to my cost to leave it alone when its like this so i'll come back tomorrow when the market has sorted its head out...

hi all:
Just closed a good short on the dow and am getting ready to go to leeds for the yorkshire traders meeting.
I think we will see the market go northwards around 19.00-19.30hrs and then make a trek downwards to follow on tomorrow.
just my opinion-yours may be different.

rgds
zarif

Ym on holiday today and so i am downing tools for today aswell.

Went to a seminar by Tom Hougaard on Saturday at Oulton Hall, Leeds and must say thoroughly enjoyed it.

Going to read through all the material again while not trading today.

rgds
zarif

The Future pre-open have done a U turn and are negative. I wonder at open if we are going to dive down or have a trek northwards as usually the !st week in July is and upwards after July the 4th holidays. As they say all will be revealed soon......
rgds
zarif

managed a good short on the dow and long cable came good aswell. Just watching the dow atm as it seems to be making a "U " shape of sorts -well i hope it does than maybe take a quick long scalp. Will wait and see.

zarif

Afternoon all: We had the dow closing in negative territory yesterday and so were most of the bourses in europe aswell.
Today the futures are mildly positive so far the nasdaq is crossing the 200/50day ma and showing weakness. Are we going to have a bounce up or ski down. Usually after a steep drop the market consolidates in a range so better to watch the 10190-10250 range and let the market decide our actions.

ps: no posters on the thread at all lately -is it me or my aftershave?

rgds
zarif