< "> edit this post http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc-%28afr%29/rns/trading-statement-and-operations-update/201301210700069619
http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc--afr-/rns/2012-full-year-results/201303250700107200A/

In an attempt to cut down the header page,i've transferred some of the older news to Page1 post No.3.

http://www.oil-price.net/index.php?lang=en
http://www.ft.com/home/uk

http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201111020700081674R
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201111150700250723S
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201112010705051251T
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201201170700146472V
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201201230701479690V
http://www.moneyam.com/action/news/showArticle?id=4323758
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201204170700164488B
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201205140700212304D
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201205210700407032D
http://www.moneyam.com/action/news/showArticle?id=4430164
http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc-%28afr%29/rns/significant-new-seychelles-3d-seismic-programme/201212120700052973T/
http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc--afr-/rns/2013-half-yearly-results/201308230700063334M/
http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc--afr-/rns/ogo-drilling-and-resources-update/201311190700083404T/
http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc--afr-/rns/trading-statement-and-operations-update/201401280700096280Y/
http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc--afr-/rns/interim-management-statement/201405200700135209H/
http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc--afr-/rns/interim-management-statement/201410300700116483V/
http://www.moneyam.com/action/news/showArticle?id=4942625
http://www.moneyam.com/action/news/showArticle?id=4943375

Fantastic news... why is sp down???

my thoughts too,

prob selling on the news and switching into FI stocks ..... i think production may be a bit lower than forecast too

The forecast is the average.....many will have mixed that up with current production and this new discovery should send the sp back up....I bet some people were cursing this morning with stoplosses being broken......luckily mine were a long way down !....unfairly knocked down in my view....

AFR tends to react to the POO which is down,check top line of post 1(header.

200 dma is at 119, and albeit that it is currently on a down trend, it may well provide a support and bounce point

Tenuous. Now 115.95p

Cazenove summary:
"Production, capex and net debt are broadly inline with Bloomberg consensus although 2012 production of 42-46 kboepd is slightly below our forecast of 50 kboepd. We will revert with any changes to our core NAV of 150p post the CMD although do not expect any material changes given lower net debt than we had forecast.
Operational highlights: Afren’s 2011 production of 19.2 kboepd is slightly ahead of our estimate of 18.5 kboepd. However, 2012 production guidance of 42-46 kboepd is below our estimate of 50kboepd, partly due to slightly later than expected first production from Barda Rash, where first oil is expected in August 2012.
Financial highlights: 2011 sales is expected at c.$600m, slightly below consensus of $642m. Capex for 2011 was $550m, inline with our model. Capex in 2012 is expected to range between c.$450-500m, below our forecast of $575m. Net debt at year end was c.$548m, inline with consensus of $558m.
2012 busy with exploration: Following the Okoro East discovery, announced on Tuesday, Afren has a number of high impact wells scheduled for 2012. The JS-2 exploration well on Ain Sifni (Kurdistan) is drilling ahead on schedule. Two exploration wells on Ebok North and OML 115 are also planned, along with wells in Tanzania, Kenya, and the JDZ. We estimate the 2012 programme could add c.244p unrisked (43p risked)."

The 150 people and policemen murdered in Nigeria over the weekend probably didn't help either .

cynic as you suggested good strong bounce off 200 dma today, 150p next stop?

ah well, call things right sometimes, just like predicting spaceships for lifting oil out of uganda!

resistance may be a bit below 150, but longer term that may look a fairly piffling price

Should go a lot higher.....patience.....150p.......soon....

Almost 1m traded in the first 15 mins, very good going for us.

Good test results due soon from Okoro East should give the sp upwards momentum.

not surprised red here today after yesterday's mail article suggesting peeps sell afr!

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/money/investing/article-2093157/MIDAS-UPDATE-It-time-sell-Afren-shares-double.html

The best bit is the comment at the bottom of the Midas article

Alternatively, it could be a good idea to look at the company fundamentals, research the business, consider what's changed since 2007, think about whether that growth is fairly reflected in the price, check the current net asset value, examine it's exploration prospects for this year, take into consideration its cashflow has doubled in the last 12 months then run a sliderule over what cash generation is likely to be in 2012 to 2013, check the 2p and 2c development pipeline, try to work out the likely impact on share value of a company targetting quadruple bbpd exit rates by 2017...... in fact, do all those things this article doesn't even begin to do.

- Grahame P, Bristol, 29/1/2012 00:13

In fact it's a buy.....

the mail article makes no difference to my opinion on afr which is buy - i was just saying expected red as the article suggested selling here - some of the herd were bound to follow that advice

Not selling any of mine.