This sums up much of my thinking - I hold a few and swing trade a few and even trade intraday sometimes ......

I think there is a lot of slack that management can cut out of the costs and would also anticipate sector consolidation ..... good value currently and have been holding their own in a falling market. Lot of US interest.

ains


Edited by Dominic White
(Filed: 08/02/2003)


Texting makes MmO2 sexy but it's also risky

More and more Britons are discovering the joys of textual intercourse. In the month of December, we fired off more than 50m mobile messages a day, and next Friday (that's Valentine's Day, folks, in case you'd forgotten) we'll send considerably more than that.



It emerged this week that the chief beneficiary of this craze is MmO2 . BT's former mobile phone division revealed that it gets a higher proportion of revenues from texting than any of the other three operators.

Revenue from messaging grew at its fastest rate ever in the last quarter, up 19pc, and data services as a proportion of MmO2 's revenue rose to 17.7pc from 15.6pc.

More good news was the rise in MmO2 's average revenues per customer. ARPUs, as nerdy analysts like to dub them, grew by 5pc to 243 in the UK and by 9pc in Germany to 212.

MmO2 now has 19.1m subscribers and in Britain it may be the smallest player, with 11.9m users, but it is growing faster than its rivals - testament to the success of its rebranding from BT Cellnet.

Only 114,000 of its 503,000 new UK subscribers were higher-spending contract customers, but MmO2 claims its pre-pay customers have started spending more than before.

Customer growth in Germany, which continues to be dominated by T-Mobile and Vodafone, is less impressive and the MmO2 share price ascribes little or no value to this part of the business.

That seems unfair, given the fact that the group has attracted higher-spending customers and has made a decent fist of turning the operation around. An eventual sale or merger is almost as inevitable as a disposal of the Dutch unit, which is losing customers.

MmO2 's larger rival Vodafone is trading on a free cashflow yield of 6pc, while at 49p this week, MmO2 's equivalent valuation remains negative. It might not have Vodafone's scale or profitability but there is room for upside. A risky buy.

By Marian Liu

KNIGHT RIDDER NEWS SERVICE

Friday, April 25, 2003

Cell phones will carry the commercials of the future.

"It's a marketer's dream," says Nihal Mehta, creator of technology to send mass messages to cell phones.

Mehta uses SMS, or short message service, to send text messages to thousands of cell phone users about the latest music, store discounts or movie updates.

It's not spam, insists Mehta, 25, founder and CEO of Ipsh.net in San Francisco.

"These are all opt-in campaigns," he said. "It's not like we're spamming a lot of random numbers." But Mehta admits it is technically "very possible" to send mass messages to randomly dialed cell phone numbers.

Marketers contract with Mehta's company to distribute their message. Cell phone users, for example, can give their numbers to the Web site of an entertainer, such as Nelly or Madonna, if they want to receive information or updates. In Madonna's case, her label, Warner Bros., launched a campaign in advance of her album released Tuesday.

Users give their number and that of a friend and receive a text message about the album. With the push of a button on the phone, they dial in to receive a sound clip, Mehta said.

"Text messaging is going to be the next thing," said Tanya Boyden-Yarkoni, director of business development and marketing at the independent music company Giant Step.

About 59 percent of people in the United States ages 12 and older own mobile phones -- roughly 140 million people -- according to a study by Upoc Inc. and Frank Magid Associates. Of those, 27 million receive text messaging, up from 18 million in 2002.

Advertisers see the potential. Universal Records used text messaging to increase airplay for Nelly's video "Air Force Ones" on BET's viewer participation show, 106 & Park.

Mehta sent 29,178 messages to cell phone users who provided their numbers to Nelly's Web site. The message included Nelly's voice message and an option to directly call BET to vote for Nelly's video. The message got results -- 67.8 percent dialed in to listen to Nelly's voice message. Then, more than half of those fans called BET to vote for his video. The video shot to No. 3 within days.

"This technology is a great way to bridge the gap between the artist's label and the fans," says Dorothy Hui, marketing manager in new media for Universal/Motown Records. "It also gave the fans a way to easily and directly show support to the artist just by pushing a button on their cell phones."

Before founding Ipsh.net, Mehta worked on PowerPoint at Microsoft's Macintosh unit in Mountain View, Calif. As a second-generation Indian American, he said he struggled with his parents about joining the family business in potpourri, but he told his father, "You got to achieve the American Dream; I want to do that, too."

Mehta is working toward sending commercials via cell phones for movie companies, candy companies and television shows, such as "Six Feet Under," even pharmaceutical companies.

Other companies are climbing on board.

"The media landscape is extremely fragmented," says Damon Bethel, associate media director of Earthquake Media, a New York new-media advertising company.

Bethel says users often tune out older forms of advertising, such as online ads. The benefits of text messages, he says, is that users can pass it along to friends with their names attached, and "who do you trust more than your buddies? It's not a marketer telling you to look at this; it's your friend telling you."

One of the initial campaigns to introduce text messaging is through voting on the "American Idol" television show.

"We saw it as a great opportunity to introduce the idea of text messaging in the U.S. because the show is already anchored in audience participation," says Danielle Perry, a representative with AT&T. "We are on the tip of the iceberg of this for this country."

Verizon also has extended text messaging to use in "Lord of the Rings" trivia contests, voting for MVP's during half-time in basketball games and fan reaction to sitcoms such as "8 Simple Rules for Dating My Teenage Daughter."

"It's the best medium to interact with television," said Brian Levine, CEO of Mobliss, a multimedia company.

Hi Ains Whats L2 like? Did you see Times speculation regarding VOD in Sat Times?

I read the times but missed the VOD story ..... what was that about?



Buy orders Sell orders
Num(%) Num Vol(%) Vol VWAP Vol Vol(%) Num Num(%)
1% (62.96%) 17 (66.61%) 3,185,310 55.25 - 56.00 1,596,498 (33.39%) 10 (37.04%)
5% (61.76%) 21 (66.51%) 3,927,484 55.11 - 56.10 1,977,961 (33.49%) 13 (38.24%)
10% (57.69%) 30 (61.19%) 4,397,240 54.96 - 56.40 2,789,406 (38.81%) 22 (42.31%)
15% (57.14%) 40 (61.94%) 5,952,706 53.89 - 57.24 3,657,576 (38.06%) 30 (42.86%)
50% (57.75%) 41 (61.96%) 5,957,606 53.88 - 57.24 3,657,576 (38.04%) 30 (42.25%)
100% (57.89%) 44 (61.72%) 5,977,726 53.82 - 57.35 3,708,268 (38.28%) 32 (42.11%)
all (56.41%) 44 (61.69%) 5,977,726 53.82 - 57.45 3,712,568 (38.31%) 34 (43.59%)

It said VOD may bid for Cauldwell Group. However, it didn't appear in Sun Papers? What's your outlook/prediction for OOM & VOD today given US futures are still +ve? Is L2 still strong? seems to be finding resistance @55.75 Should go higher then↓.

I think we will go higher today - as you say the US futures are marginally + at this time - Smith Barney has just raised their target price from 70p to 85p and says they are attractive to private and stategic buyers.




Buy orders Sell orders
Num(%) Num Vol(%) Vol VWAP Vol Vol(%) Num Num(%)
1% (51.43%) 18 (56.18%) 2,847,903 55.21 - 55.96 2,221,370 (43.82%) 17 (48.57%)
5% (51.11%) 23 (57.50%) 3,690,077 55.06 - 56.07 2,727,833 (42.50%) 22 (48.89%)
10% (50.00%) 32 (47.82%) 4,159,833 54.91 - 56.46 4,539,278 (52.18%) 32 (50.00%)
15% (51.22%) 42 (51.38%) 5,715,299 53.81 - 57.02 5,407,448 (48.62%) 40 (48.78%)
50% (51.81%) 43 (51.41%) 5,720,199 53.80 - 57.02 5,407,448 (48.59%) 40 (48.19%)
100% (52.27%) 46 (51.26%) 5,740,319 53.74 - 57.10 5,458,140 (48.74%) 42 (47.73%)
all (51.11%) 46 (51.24%) 5,740,319 53.74 - 57.17 5,462,440 (48.76%) 44 (48.89%)

Can you type the SSSB report. Commerzbank ↑ fair value estimate to 62p from 52p and raised to accumulate from hold. US Futures have turned marginally -ve now.

I will see if I can post it later - its on Market Eye but that's a subscription service


vols are quite low at the moment but note the share price dipped again in the early morning

Just appeared on FT. I think you got the price target wrong, should be 70p vs 65p.

OOOooooooops your right ...... the font and color used made it read like 85p - blue on black rarely works well :-))


ains

Commerzbank says scope for cutting working capital and this will reduce debt + sees 43% upside based on forecasts being met



ains

L2 still strong? still finding resistance @55.75. S&P ↑ again but still < 905.

They are doing better than the sector and the market @ plus 2.28%

volumes still lowish



Buy orders Sell orders
Num(%) Num Vol(%) Vol VWAP Vol Vol(%) Num Num(%)
1% (52.00%) 13 (65.26%) 2,858,649 55.57 - 56.08 1,521,759 (34.74%) 12 (48.00%)
5% (48.57%) 17 (56.07%) 3,725,649 55.43 - 56.51 2,919,559 (43.93%) 18 (51.43%)
10% (50.00%) 26 (58.97%) 4,377,799 55.22 - 56.57 3,046,059 (41.03%) 26 (50.00%)
15% (50.75%) 34 (55.94%) 4,947,799 54.90 - 57.32 3,896,829 (44.06%) 33 (49.25%)
50% (53.52%) 38 (60.46%) 5,957,965 54.06 - 57.32 3,896,829 (39.54%) 33 (46.48%)
100% (53.95%) 41 (60.23%) 5,978,085 54.00 - 57.42 3,947,521 (39.77%) 35 (46.05%)
all (52.56%) 41 (60.20%) 5,978,085 54.00 - 57.51 3,951,821 (39.80%) 37 (47.44%

Bid has just 56. Is their sufficient support for this to rise further to say 57.

I think there could be when US clicks in later - nas is improving to plus 5.5



Buy orders Sell orders
Num(%) Num Vol(%) Vol VWAP Vol Vol(%) Num Num(%)
1% (57.89%) 11 (81.60%) 2,981,126 55.68 - 56.36 672,349 (18.40%) 8 (42.11%)
5% (60.00%) 18 (68.87%) 4,335,607 55.50 - 56.78 1,959,749 (31.13%) 12 (40.00%)
10% (56.52%) 26 (69.75%) 4,808,057 55.34 - 56.87 2,084,849 (30.25%) 20 (43.48%)
15% (57.38%) 35 (64.91%) 5,397,757 55.03 - 57.76 2,918,419 (35.09%) 26 (42.62%)
50% (60.00%) 39 (68.71%) 6,407,923 54.23 - 57.76 2,918,419 (31.29%) 26 (40.00%)
100% (60.00%) 42 (68.40%) 6,428,043 54.18 - 57.89 2,969,111 (31.60%) 28 (40.00%)
all (58.33%) 42 (68.37%) 6,428,043 54.18 - 58.02 2,973,411 (31.63%) 30 (41.67%

theres the 57p we talked about :-))

By Business Weekly, 28 April 2003,

Advances in nanotechnology mean that the lost or stolen mobile phone could become a thing of the past, according to technology research hothouse BTexact.



Ian Pearson, Suffolk based BTexacts futurologist



Advances in nanotechnology mean that the lost or stolen mobile phone could become a thing of the past, according to technology research hothouse BTexact.

Ian Pearson, Suffolk based BTexacts futurologist believes that the concept of active skin whereby incredibly small electronic circuits are inkjet printed onto the surface of the skin could become a reality by 2010.

This, he says, will open the way for the integration of electronic devices such as the mobile phones or televisions literally into the human body.

According to Pearson, circuits could be factory assembled in thin polymer membranes that adhere to the skin like childrens temporary tattoos and large-scale circuitry could be embedded in stick-on patches similar to plasters.

The combination of layers allows entire gadgets to be built, and permits links between the body and electronic domains such as the internet.

Semiconductor circuits can already be printed using inkjet printers, so it could also be feasible in the future to have circuits painlessly printed onto hands or arms, in somewhere like a local corner shop.

The idea is to use a five-layered architecture, with a few components deep in the skin that would stay there permanently, in contact with blood capillaries and nerve endings. They could communicate by infrared with others higher in the skin that would wash or wear away after a few days.

Cellphones, MP3 players, electronic diaries and other consumer electronics could be printed into wrists, arms or legs. A full keyboard could be embedded in a forearm but remain almost invisible until touched and then it would light up.

The circuitry itself would be made of dispersed groups of invisibly small devices, so that there would be more than a very slight colour change in that area of skin before the device is switched on.

Pearson says: By the end of this decade, it will be possible to build simple identifier, memory and processing chips, sensors, and short range communication devices, all smaller than human skin cells, which are about 10 microns across.

We could painlessly print or blast these chips in significant numbers into the upper layers of the skin and, by using self-organisation technology, arrange them into useful circuits and consumer electronic gadgets.

The displays for these devices could be based on small organic LEDs. It could have a simple single indicator light, an active tattoo or an entire computer display. Having a TV printed onto the back of the hand might be quite appealing for TV addicts.

Pearson says active skin technology could also be used by the medical profession to monitor our blood chemistry remotely and enable hospitals to check up on patients via computers or mobiles.

These computers could also remotely control drug dispensers. It might even be possible to print special membranes with pores that can be electronically opened and closed and thereby dispense accurate dosages.

Citigoup Smith Barney raises its price target on the mobile operator, with an upgrade from Commerzbank also boosting sentiment, dealers said. Notwithstanding its outperformance over the past 12 months, Smith Barney raised its target price to 70 pence from 65 pence due to mmO2's lowly valuation. According to the influential broker, mmO2 trades at a discount of between 15-40% to its break-up value, which may entice an independent strategic buyer into making a bid for the group. A private equity takeover is also a distinct possibility, said Smith Barney. mmO2's improving margins, low debt levels and easily separable asset may prove "compelling" to a venture capital buyer, argued the broker, which has an 'outperform' rating on the stock.

Commerzbank also turned more positive on mmO2, upping its rating to 'accumulate' from 'hold' and raising its price target to 62 pence from 52. The German broker feels mmO2 will outperform the sector over next one to three months due to likely improvements in its working capital and encouraging first- and second-quarter key performance indicators. In common with Smith Barney, Commerzbank believes that the competitive threat from Hutchison Whampoa Ltd's new entrant, 3, has been exaggerated.

snippet from Times



MmO2 put on 2p to 56p as Smith Barney raised its price target on the mobile operator from 65p to 70p ahead of full-year results on May 21. After this months sale of its Dutch operation, the US broker believes the case for the sale of its German business, which it thinks attractive to trade and private equity buyers alike, is overwhelming.

Nice articles. What's today's prediction for OOM & VOD. L2 for both please. Thanks.

I think a 58p close subject to no fallout from US later - currently nas up 3 points


ains



Buy orders Sell orders
Num(%) Num Vol(%) Vol VWAP Vol Vol(%) Num Num(%)
1% (55.88%) 19 (61.79%) 2,939,287 57.04 - 57.94 1,817,633 (38.21%) 15 (44.12%)
5% (54.55%) 24 (63.28%) 3,924,474 56.88 - 58.06 2,277,700 (36.72%) 20 (45.45%)
10% (47.54%) 29 (56.18%) 4,710,835 56.64 - 58.44 3,673,949 (43.82%) 32 (52.46%)
15% (54.93%) 39 (57.22%) 4,914,535 56.49 - 58.44 3,673,949 (42.78%) 32 (45.07%)
50% (54.05%) 40 (57.86%) 5,114,535 56.24 - 58.53 3,724,641 (42.14%) 34 (45.95%)
100% (55.84%) 43 (57.96%) 5,134,655 56.16 - 58.53 3,724,641 (42.04%) 34 (44.16%)
all (54.43%) 43 (57.93%) 5,134,655 56.16 - 58.63 3,728,941 (42.07%) 36 (45.57%)






Buy orders Sell orders
Num(%) Num Vol(%) Vol VWAP Vol Vol(%) Num Num(%)
1% (43.24%) 32 (56.28%) 8,108,281 125.39 - 126.71 6,297,594 (43.72%) 42 (56.76%)
5% (31.54%) 41 (34.50%) 8,606,794 125.27 - 127.51 16,338,253 (65.50%) 89 (68.46%)
10% (27.83%) 59 (28.74%) 10,067,994 124.58 - 128.50 24,965,876 (71.26%) 153 (72.17%)
15% (35.69%) 96 (32.85%) 12,853,766 122.81 - 128.80 26,279,380 (67.15%) 173 (64.31%)
50% (39.56%) 125 (32.66%) 13,249,637 122.47 - 129.24 27,317,568 (67.34%) 191 (60.44%)
100% (48.78%) 200 (35.41%) 15,124,658 120.20 - 129.51 27,589,652 (64.59%) 210 (51.22%)
all (48.08%) 200 (35.38%) 15,124,658 120.20 - 129.70 27,624,800 (64.62%) 216 (51.92%)