This sums up much of my thinking - I hold a few and swing trade a few and even trade intraday sometimes ......

I think there is a lot of slack that management can cut out of the costs and would also anticipate sector consolidation ..... good value currently and have been holding their own in a falling market. Lot of US interest.

ains


Edited by Dominic White
(Filed: 08/02/2003)


Texting makes MmO2 sexy but it's also risky

More and more Britons are discovering the joys of textual intercourse. In the month of December, we fired off more than 50m mobile messages a day, and next Friday (that's Valentine's Day, folks, in case you'd forgotten) we'll send considerably more than that.



It emerged this week that the chief beneficiary of this craze is MmO2 . BT's former mobile phone division revealed that it gets a higher proportion of revenues from texting than any of the other three operators.

Revenue from messaging grew at its fastest rate ever in the last quarter, up 19pc, and data services as a proportion of MmO2 's revenue rose to 17.7pc from 15.6pc.

More good news was the rise in MmO2 's average revenues per customer. ARPUs, as nerdy analysts like to dub them, grew by 5pc to 243 in the UK and by 9pc in Germany to 212.

MmO2 now has 19.1m subscribers and in Britain it may be the smallest player, with 11.9m users, but it is growing faster than its rivals - testament to the success of its rebranding from BT Cellnet.

Only 114,000 of its 503,000 new UK subscribers were higher-spending contract customers, but MmO2 claims its pre-pay customers have started spending more than before.

Customer growth in Germany, which continues to be dominated by T-Mobile and Vodafone, is less impressive and the MmO2 share price ascribes little or no value to this part of the business.

That seems unfair, given the fact that the group has attracted higher-spending customers and has made a decent fist of turning the operation around. An eventual sale or merger is almost as inevitable as a disposal of the Dutch unit, which is losing customers.

MmO2 's larger rival Vodafone is trading on a free cashflow yield of 6pc, while at 49p this week, MmO2 's equivalent valuation remains negative. It might not have Vodafone's scale or profitability but there is room for upside. A risky buy.

snippet from Times



MmO2 put on 2p to 56p as Smith Barney raised its price target on the mobile operator from 65p to 70p ahead of full-year results on May 21. After this months sale of its Dutch operation, the US broker believes the case for the sale of its German business, which it thinks attractive to trade and private equity buyers alike, is overwhelming.

Nice articles. What's today's prediction for OOM & VOD. L2 for both please. Thanks.

I think a 58p close subject to no fallout from US later - currently nas up 3 points


ains



Buy orders Sell orders
Num(%) Num Vol(%) Vol VWAP Vol Vol(%) Num Num(%)
1% (55.88%) 19 (61.79%) 2,939,287 57.04 - 57.94 1,817,633 (38.21%) 15 (44.12%)
5% (54.55%) 24 (63.28%) 3,924,474 56.88 - 58.06 2,277,700 (36.72%) 20 (45.45%)
10% (47.54%) 29 (56.18%) 4,710,835 56.64 - 58.44 3,673,949 (43.82%) 32 (52.46%)
15% (54.93%) 39 (57.22%) 4,914,535 56.49 - 58.44 3,673,949 (42.78%) 32 (45.07%)
50% (54.05%) 40 (57.86%) 5,114,535 56.24 - 58.53 3,724,641 (42.14%) 34 (45.95%)
100% (55.84%) 43 (57.96%) 5,134,655 56.16 - 58.53 3,724,641 (42.04%) 34 (44.16%)
all (54.43%) 43 (57.93%) 5,134,655 56.16 - 58.63 3,728,941 (42.07%) 36 (45.57%)






Buy orders Sell orders
Num(%) Num Vol(%) Vol VWAP Vol Vol(%) Num Num(%)
1% (43.24%) 32 (56.28%) 8,108,281 125.39 - 126.71 6,297,594 (43.72%) 42 (56.76%)
5% (31.54%) 41 (34.50%) 8,606,794 125.27 - 127.51 16,338,253 (65.50%) 89 (68.46%)
10% (27.83%) 59 (28.74%) 10,067,994 124.58 - 128.50 24,965,876 (71.26%) 153 (72.17%)
15% (35.69%) 96 (32.85%) 12,853,766 122.81 - 128.80 26,279,380 (67.15%) 173 (64.31%)
50% (39.56%) 125 (32.66%) 13,249,637 122.47 - 129.24 27,317,568 (67.34%) 191 (60.44%)
100% (48.78%) 200 (35.41%) 15,124,658 120.20 - 129.51 27,589,652 (64.59%) 210 (51.22%)
all (48.08%) 200 (35.38%) 15,124,658 120.20 - 129.70 27,624,800 (64.62%) 216 (51.92%)

O2's very strong @58. Wish I had it. What's your opinion on VOD close. Have the L2 VOD sales been executed now hence the upturn or is further downturn likely. L2 now?

I don't trade VOD ...... I prefer OOM as a fall backk is the idea of M+A activity. They are too big imho and size isn't everything. OOM can be more nimble in changing strategy - for the ST and long time imho


ains




Buy orders Sell orders
Num(%) Num Vol(%) Vol VWAP Vol Vol(%) Num Num(%)
1% (43.24%) 32 (56.28%) 8,108,281 125.39 - 126.71 6,297,594 (43.72%) 42 (56.76%)
5% (31.54%) 41 (34.50%) 8,606,794 125.27 - 127.51 16,338,253 (65.50%) 89 (68.46%)
10% (27.83%) 59 (28.74%) 10,067,994 124.58 - 128.50 24,965,876 (71.26%) 153 (72.17%)
15% (35.69%) 96 (32.85%) 12,853,766 122.81 - 128.80 26,279,380 (67.15%) 173 (64.31%)
50% (39.56%) 125 (32.66%) 13,249,637 122.47 - 129.24 27,317,568 (67.34%) 191 (60.44%)
100% (48.78%) 200 (35.41%) 15,124,658 120.20 - 129.51 27,589,652 (64.59%) 210 (51.22%)
all (48.08%) 200 (35.38%) 15,124,658 120.20 - 129.70 27,624,800 (64.62%) 216 (51.92%

L2 info just provided is unchanged from the previous one? Because levels not hit?

ooops .... it may not have refreshed


here is latest



Buy orders Sell orders
Num(%) Num Vol(%) Vol VWAP Vol Vol(%) Num Num(%)
1% (52.13%) 49 (57.47%) 9,471,165 125.55 - 127.16 7,010,041 (42.53%) 45 (47.87%)
5% (35.58%) 58 (36.48%) 9,955,165 125.50 - 127.88 17,332,924 (63.52%) 105 (64.42%)
10% (35.27%) 79 (33.06%) 11,460,878 125.00 - 128.70 23,205,768 (66.94%) 145 (64.73%)
15% (40.83%) 118 (37.57%) 14,677,650 123.21 - 129.01 24,385,052 (62.43%) 171 (59.17%)
50% (43.64%) 144 (37.18%) 15,067,746 122.91 - 129.49 25,456,644 (62.82%) 186 (56.36%)
100% (52.48%) 222 (39.77%) 16,948,542 120.83 - 129.75 25,672,744 (60.23%) 201 (47.52%)
all (51.75%) 222 (39.73%) 16,948,542 120.83 - 129.95 25,707,892 (60.27%) 207 (48.25%)

Is L2 stronger now for both stocks ahead of US open which is at its strongest.

Sorry was out ....



Buy orders Sell orders
Num(%) Num Vol(%) Vol VWAP Vol Vol(%) Num Num(%)
1% (49.48%) 48 (51.94%) 12,207,013 125.62 - 127.05 11,294,321 (48.06%) 49 (50.52%)
5% (34.36%) 56 (36.99%) 12,631,345 125.57 - 127.68 21,517,204 (63.01%) 107 (65.64%)
10% (34.82%) 78 (34.10%) 14,169,058 125.15 - 128.42 27,380,048 (65.90%) 146 (65.18%)
15% (40.48%) 117 (37.84%) 17,385,830 123.61 - 128.69 28,559,332 (62.16%) 172 (59.52%)
50% (43.33%) 143 (37.50%) 17,775,926 123.34 - 129.12 29,630,924 (62.50%) 187 (56.67%)
100% (52.25%) 221 (39.71%) 19,656,722 121.51 - 129.34 29,847,024 (60.29%) 202 (47.75%)
all (51.40%) 221 (39.68%) 19,656,722 121.51 - 129.52 29,882,172 (60.32%) 209 (48.60%)

Buy orders Sell orders
Num(%) Num Vol(%) Vol VWAP Vol Vol(%) Num Num(%)
1% (45.16%) 14 (36.96%) 1,249,579 57.35 - 58.13 2,131,208 (63.04%) 17 (54.84%)
5% (45.95%) 17 (39.69%) 2,083,817 57.10 - 58.41 3,166,608 (60.31%) 20 (54.05%)
10% (45.10%) 23 (47.67%) 2,977,636 56.65 - 58.45 3,268,312 (52.33%) 28 (54.90%)
15% (54.84%) 34 (49.47%) 3,200,336 56.41 - 58.45 3,268,312 (50.53%) 28 (45.16%)
50% (53.85%) 35 (50.61%) 3,400,336 56.03 - 58.55 3,319,004 (49.39%) 30 (46.15%)
100% (55.88%) 38 (50.75%) 3,420,456 55.91 - 58.55 3,319,004 (49.25%) 30 (44.12%)
all (54.29%) 38 (50.72%) 3,420,456 55.91 - 58.67 3,323,304 (49.28%) 32 (45.71%)

Wow did you see that downturn. Has their been any change to L2 strengh. Vod should close <125.5 signalling further downside tommorrow unlike +ve OOM. US has just turned marginally -ve which believe me was v.difficult with better than expected consumer confidence figs which caused US to spike up 80 pts ~8560 and S&P 924.25.

Like I said earlier - it would depend on the US situation


Buy orders Sell orders
Num(%) Num Vol(%) Vol VWAP Vol Vol(%) Num Num(%)
1% (43.33%) 13 (46.34%) 1,780,387 57.22 - 57.97 2,061,964 (53.66%) 17 (56.67%)
5% (44.74%) 17 (54.67%) 2,923,785 57.00 - 58.05 2,424,349 (45.33%) 21 (55.26%)
10% (43.10%) 25 (49.74%) 3,856,084 56.66 - 58.43 3,896,053 (50.26%) 33 (56.90%)
15% (52.17%) 36 (51.15%) 4,078,784 56.47 - 58.43 3,896,053 (48.85%) 33 (47.83%)
50% (51.39%) 37 (52.02%) 4,278,784 56.17 - 58.51 3,946,745 (47.98%) 35 (48.61%)
100% (53.33%) 40 (52.14%) 4,298,904 56.07 - 58.51 3,946,745 (47.86%) 35 (46.67%)
all (51.95%) 40 (52.11%) 4,298,904 56.07 - 58.61 3,951,045 (47.89%) 37 (48.05%

Buy orders Sell orders
Num(%) Num Vol(%) Vol VWAP Vol Vol(%) Num Num(%)
1% (33.33%) 26 (37.29%) 5,132,598 124.36 - 125.93 8,629,977 (62.71%) 52 (66.67%)
5% (29.69%) 38 (24.62%) 5,961,111 124.19 - 126.62 18,255,366 (75.38%) 90 (70.31%)
10% (22.98%) 54 (19.03%) 7,337,138 123.46 - 127.50 31,227,086 (80.97%) 181 (77.02%)
15% (30.98%) 92 (22.46%) 10,277,248 121.40 - 128.13 35,487,796 (77.54%) 205 (69.02%)
50% (34.31%) 117 (22.34%) 10,507,954 121.15 - 128.48 36,535,984 (77.66%) 224 (65.69%)
100% (44.14%) 192 (25.17%) 12,382,975 118.57 - 128.69 36,808,072 (74.83%) 243 (55.86%)
all (43.57%) 193 (25.16%) 12,382,976 118.57 - 128.84 36,843,216 (74.84%) 250 (56.43%

L2 strong? Finding support @57. S&P/DOW futures marginally lower. Prediction?

Interesting one today ..... recovered after the early morning dip - seem to be following the overall market trend - sector down around half a percent - market a tad less - US nas down 3.5 points

With little news at this time I guess a small negative - maybe 57/57.5p although vols are high which is always interesting




Buy orders Sell orders
Num(%) Num Vol(%) Vol VWAP Vol Vol(%) Num Num(%)
1% (50.00%) 17 (46.15%) 1,947,689 57.03 - 57.92 2,272,358 (53.85%) 17 (50.00%)
5% (46.51%) 20 (45.02%) 2,423,731 56.93 - 58.04 2,960,285 (54.98%) 23 (53.49%)
10% (42.42%) 28 (44.10%) 3,122,964 56.60 - 58.31 3,959,034 (55.90%) 38 (57.58%)
15% (46.84%) 37 (40.80%) 3,310,388 56.41 - 58.78 4,803,321 (59.20%) 42 (53.16%)
50% (47.62%) 40 (47.10%) 4,322,575 55.19 - 58.85 4,854,013 (52.90%) 44 (52.38%)
100% (50.00%) 44 (47.25%) 4,347,595 55.09 - 58.85 4,854,013 (52.75%) 44 (50.00%)
all (48.89%) 44 (47.23%) 4,347,595 55.09 - 58.93 4,858,313 (52.77%) 46 (51.11%

this is good news


30 Apr 2003 11:25 BST

EU clears T-Mobile and mmO2 network sharing

BRUSSELS (Reuters) - Telecoms operators T-Mobile and mmO2 have won European Commission approval to share networks for third generation mobile phones in Britain.
Heavily-indebted telecoms operators are increasingly resorting to sharing their infrastructures to slash costs and speed up the rolling-out of long-awaited 3G services.

"This decision strikes the right balance between infrastructure competition in the 3G market and the immediate consumer benefit of faster and wider roll-out of advanced 3G services," European Competition Commissioner Mario Monti said in a statement.

The companies had asked the Commission in February for approval of a cooperation accord to share their sites in Britain and Germany.

The Commission granted approval for the British part of the accord and said a decision on the network sharing in Germany would be announced in the near future.

Hi Ains. Do you use GNI for your trading? I noticed the comments you made on the short selling topic & the associated criticisms. I gather you don't short stocks.

Hi stv ..... I tend not to short stocks as I am not convinced about the need. YOu can still trade shares that are falling on a longer term basis. I use a number of brokers for trading incuding several web based peeps like selftrade/comdirect/brokerline and idealing. I prefer to deal off sets and use the sets prices for gaining an improvement. Its rare I pay the touch price regardless of the tight spreads. You pay a one off 10 a trade and I use a cheap rolling ovrerdraft facility rather than trade on margin. stamp duty is only on one side of the bargain




Buy orders Sell orders
Num(%) Num Vol(%) Vol VWAP Vol Vol(%) Num Num(%)
1% (51.85%) 14 (61.05%) 1,505,507 56.71 - 57.50 960,469 (38.95%) 13 (48.15%)
5% (39.47%) 15 (40.52%) 1,854,616 56.58 - 57.83 2,722,892 (59.48%) 23 (60.53%)
10% (37.50%) 24 (37.20%) 2,297,816 56.27 - 58.14 3,878,526 (62.80%) 40 (62.50%)
15% (42.31%) 33 (40.69%) 3,252,227 54.93 - 58.65 4,740,113 (59.31%) 45 (57.69%)
50% (41.98%) 34 (41.88%) 3,452,227 54.65 - 58.72 4,790,805 (58.12%) 47 (58.02%)
100% (44.71%) 38 (42.06%) 3,477,247 54.52 - 58.72 4,790,805 (57.94%) 47 (55.29%)
all (43.68%) 38 (42.03%) 3,477,247 54.52 - 58.80 4,795,105 (57.97%) 49 (56.32%

Thanks Ains. It's obvious short squeezing has affected prices significantly since last yr & I for one have lost more than anyone for sure. US futures despite earlier spiking are again lower so probably will not go above S&P 925. L2 weaker!
Do you have a tel number I can ring you on late evening for friendly discussion?

You have to learn to live with and profit from them .... makes for more volatility ... US news is mixed but generally not very + ..... US futures are fairly constant and marginally off. Sector as before but general market better than evens .... going to put my neck out here and assumming no new news we will see 58p.


By all meands give me a call - mail me at ainsoph@blueyonder.co.uk


ains



Buy orders Sell orders
Num(%) Num Vol(%) Vol VWAP Vol Vol(%) Num Num(%)
1% (30.77%) 8 (18.77%) 819,428 56.56 - 57.29 3,546,865 (81.23%) 18 (69.23%)
5% (25.00%) 9 (17.95%) 1,167,069 56.39 - 57.52 5,334,239 (82.05%) 27 (75.00%)
10% (33.90%) 20 (20.62%) 1,640,669 55.97 - 57.74 6,317,339 (79.38%) 39 (66.10%)
15% (35.14%) 26 (21.55%) 1,762,493 55.75 - 57.78 6,415,868 (78.45%) 48 (64.86%)
50% (35.06%) 27 (23.28%) 1,962,493 55.16 - 57.83 6,466,560 (76.72%) 50 (64.94%)
100% (38.27%) 31 (23.51%) 1,987,513 54.94 - 57.83 6,466,560 (76.49%) 50 (61.73%)
all (37.35%) 31 (23.50%) 1,987,513 54.94 - 57.89 6,470,860 (76.50%) 52 (62.65%)