overgrowth
- 09 Feb 2005 20:52
Dowgate Capital (DGT) are sitting
in the middle of a goldmine!
This company through
their sole trading arm City Financial Associates are looking to take full
advantage of the "booming" AIM market this year.
Dowgate provide NOMAD (NOMinated ADvisor) services to AIM companies
and also have full Corporate Broker status which means that they can fund
placements on behalf of the companies they represent.
|
|
On first sight, the
fact that Dowgate exist in the often veiled financial services sector
makes you think twice about investing in company such as this because
it would be impossible to understand what they were doing - however, think
again!
DGT bring new companies
to the AIM (Alternative Investment Market). For each new company "floated"
on AIM, they take arrangement fees when acting as NOMAD. After the company
is launched then for a nice steady earner DGT get another healthy chunk
of cash every year for looking after them (note that all AIM companies
must have a nominated adviser - thereby securing a ready source of recurring
income).
Because DGT also act
as a Corporate broker they can get a very healthy percentage for arranging
placement of shares with insititutions before a new company floats. In
addition, because placements come outside the sphere of yearly NOMAD work,
they can also gain healthy percentages of placements which companies may
need to make throughout the year when they need a quick injection of cash
to speed growth.
Current NOMADships:
28 companies represented (gives recurring income of approx 480,000
per year)
Current on-going Brokerage
agreements: 19 companies (income depends on placements)
For flotations, depending
on the size of a company, fees charged will be anything from 50,000
to 100,000+
For placements (the real earner), DGT get anything from 3% to around 12%
of the TOTAL AMOUNT RAISED - For example a new company raising 3M
though a placement will earn DGT anything from 90,000 to 360,000
!
These figures are indicative as actual deals all differ due to circumstances
and DGT sometimes take payment in shares - they still have a tasty chunk
of Setstone shares and when this Russian exploration company comes back
to AIM, predictions are that the share price will rocket.
Note that the amount that this little company can earn in fees is huge
and every new deal that comes through we know will contribute another
healthy chunk into the bottom line. The good news with every new floatation
means that it's another chunk of recurring revenue which could go on for
years, with DGT having to do very little.
New clients gained in 2005 are:
Mediazest
(NOMAD & broker) Elite Strategies (NOMAD) Process Handling (NOMAD) Poland Investment Fund (NOMAD) Nanotech Energy (NOMAD & broker) Archimedia Ventures (NOMAD & broker) Red Leopard Holdings (NOMAD) Alba Mineral Resources (NOMAD & broker) Intandem Films (NOMAD & broker) Motive Television (NOMAD) IncaGold (NOMAD) Sportswinbet (NOMAD & Broker) Infoscreen Networks (NOMAD & Broker) Mark Kingsley (NOMAD & Broker) Croatia Ventures (NOMAD & Broker) Pantheon Leisure (NOMAD) Firenze Ventures (Ofex Advisor) FlightStore Group (NOMAD & Broker) Euro Capital Projects (NOMAD) Pearl Street Holdings (NOMAD) Worldwide Natural Resources (Ofex Advisor) Dovedale Ventures (Ofex Advisor) Other 2005 work completed:Neptune-Calculus VCT offer for subs of up to 12 million
Advisory work for TGM on London Bus disposal for 20.4M
Advisory work for Creightons on property disposal
Advisory work for Hampton Trust on company restructuring
Advisory work for Interbulk Investments on acquisition of
Inbulk Advisory work for Fundamental-e
Investments on two disposals Advisory work for Designer
Vision re: Design Rights against Centurion Electronics
Click Here for fundamentals and profit projections.
|

markusantonius
- 07 Dec 2006 19:48
- 2564 of 2787
0.60p in Dec. 2006 was not quite The Spring forecast, was it, Eric? :o(
Has SD, yourself or anyone else done a recalc. of the figures lately - just wondering how they stack up as we approach 2007?
EWRobson
- 07 Dec 2006 20:08
- 2565 of 2787
Hi Markus. sd gave his forcast a few days ago of 1.25 pbt and a pe of 5.4. Low estimate could be 1m and a pe of 6.8. He also commented that an exit pe on takeover would be not less than 10. Indeed you could argue that the pe should be not less than 10 implying an sp of around 1.1p.
Despite the takeover of Seymour Pearce, the share is still under the radar of the institutions. The interest generated by the takeover has long since expired. So unlikely to move significantly ahead until we approach the finals; possibly starting to move January for March results. This is the pattern of the last couple of years. There is also some concern about the AIM market. However the interim pbt was 485K and that was without an SP contribution. The current price is below the acquisition price. This suggests that the price is unlikely to fall further, or, if it does, it will attract buying. Looking to go back in myself on the arrival of funds.
Eric
markusantonius
- 07 Dec 2006 20:22
- 2566 of 2787
Thanks, ERW. Will continue to monitor.....
stockdog
- 07 Dec 2006 22:46
- 2567 of 2787
Remember my forecast of 1.25m profit was pro forma, as if DGT had owned SPE for the whole year, not just from October. So actual profit will be made up of 12 months of DGT and 3 months of SPE - approx 770,000 after tax.
EWRobson
- 07 Dec 2006 22:57
- 2568 of 2787
Last year SPE had pbt of 617K; sounds as if figures are down this year but still positive. Lets work on your combined 1m fugure which may now be a bit optimistic for CFA alone but reasonable with SPE. Suggests that a price of 1p is attainable with possibility of breakthrough that psychological barrier; presumably a resistance level because launched at that price (I believe).
markusantonius
- 07 Dec 2006 23:27
- 2569 of 2787
OK, very informative posts, guys, thanks. So guess I should check back here in mid January to see where things are heading...?
EWRobson
- 08 Dec 2006 13:23
- 2570 of 2787
Dangerous to take your eye off the ball, as you know from golf! MACD turning up. If volume increases I suspect the share will start moving; unlikely to be selling on any scale so that would probably imply buying pushing the sp up to get holders to relinquish.
markusantonius
- 08 Dec 2006 16:48
- 2571 of 2787
Of course!
stockdog
- 08 Dec 2006 23:33
- 2572 of 2787
Eric - think SPE had PBT of 617k for H1 2006, but seemed to have a 50% tax charge, don't know why. So I've taken 300k X 50% PAT for Q4 2006. Plus (485k H1 + 400k H2) less 30% tax for CFA = 620k. So total of 770k PAT for combo. This is a pro forma (full 12 months combo) of 1,228k.
With 1.114bn shares in issue the pro forma EPS is 0.11p for a PE of 5.45. Net of the cash on the BS this is ann enterprise PE of about 4.5. Fair value at PE of 10 in an uncertain AIM market still producing cash profits suggests an SP of 1.1p. This is consistent with all that's been written by those who've done the analysis to date.
Only problem is - what will be the mechanism by which the re-rating is recognised? It's such a tiny stock the instis won't even see it let alone look at it. Perhaps a dividend could help change this - but still so tiny - if AR could be persuaded to leave a few crumbs after his bonus!
My own belief currently is - as organic profit growth dwindles as the cycle turns down, a predator will be pursuaded that acquisition will achieve acquired growth, especially with a couple of million sitting unused on the BS.
EWRobson
- 09 Dec 2006 12:48
- 2573 of 2787
Thanks sd. Figures look realistic: perhaps conservative but there could have been a fourth quarter downturn (optimistic comments from TR re trading at takeover). Re the institutions, presumably TR, and perhaps particularly, those from Seymour Pierce must meet with city acquaintances responsible for funds management. There can't be many stocks which are both profitable and generating significant dollops of cash. I note you refer to 'organic growth dwindling' - the current sp doesn't even respect a level trading forecast.
Eric
white westie
- 12 Dec 2006 08:35
- 2574 of 2787
5 Million sold late last night and another 4M just gone through now sold before opening and no drop in the SP what the hell is going on?
someone must be mopping all these sells up maybe a big buyer in the background but if so why are you still being able to buy 2.5M on-line this morning?
something strange going on here i think its all very odd, anyone got any ideas?
ww
EWRobson
- 12 Dec 2006 13:23
- 2575 of 2787
See the sp has eased now so MMs presumably trying to off-load the stock they have acquired. Surprising to see 8 million sold at 0.4p half after hours and half before opening. Left at least 10K on the table. Likely to be a forced sale and poor chap taken to the cleaners. Could well be a good time to pick up the odd million!
Eric
Balerboy
- 12 Dec 2006 22:50
- 2576 of 2787
Hi all, just wondered if China real happens to be one of Dowgates companies introduced to AIM?? and will their suspension have an effect on Dowgate?
China Real Estate Opportunities SA
08 December 2006
CHINA REAL ESTATE OPPORTUNITIES S.A.
The Board of Directors of China Real Estate Opportunities S.A.announce that the
shares of the Company have been suspended from trading on AIM with effect from
10.00a.m. today at the request of the Company. A further announcement will be
made shortly.
This information is provided by RNS
The company news service from the London Stock Exchange
PUPQUBR
canary9
- 19 Dec 2006 10:15
- 2577 of 2787
Buy at 0.52p!..........getting interesting now!
markusantonius
- 19 Dec 2006 11:21
- 2578 of 2787
Where do you see support/resistance, Rod?
canary9
- 19 Dec 2006 14:18
- 2579 of 2787
Last year during January I was able to buy at .45p, and the company has made progress since then, although activity for CFA in the 2nd half is not as strong as the 1st half. I had a "dabble" today at .52p in case there is a trading statement, but will likely have a bigger bet in January if I can get a price less than 0.5p.
EWRobson
- 20 Dec 2006 17:22
- 2580 of 2787
markus Theoretically (usually the case) support level at 0.65p as that was the palcing price for new chares for acquisition; argument that there was buying support at that level, the issue was fully subscribed and therefore there is likely to be more money at that price. What happened was that the price fell through that level and was then steady at 0.6p for a while; so any buying at that elvel was balanced by selling, possibly profit making from those in at a lower level. The sp has now fallen away from that level; lowest mid-price of 0.54p so Canary has done well to get in at 0.52p. Comments above of a fairly large stake (relatively) at 0.4p which looks like a forced sale.
Cap. is now down to 6m or so which looks remarkably low given that Seymour Pierce looks somthing like a cash cow to support Dowgate, approaching shooting star status. The downside risk may be associated with queries re the AIM market but the underliying cost base is pretty low; a great deal of costs come from bonuses. On balance, i would argue that we are repeating the last two years when the OOSOOM phenomenon is giving buying opportuntiies in Dec/Jan before the run up to the results. Could be at 1p by March against relatively low downside risk. DYOR of course - and share results with us please!
Eric
stockdog
- 20 Dec 2006 18:35
- 2581 of 2787
Eric
Talking of OOSOOM syndrome, I'm now off for the hols and plan to get OOMS on several occasions!
Happy Christmas everyone!
EWRobson
- 20 Dec 2006 21:07
- 2582 of 2787
sd I was wondering whether those should be ZOOMs but probably the zzzzzzzzz will follow the OOM bit! And a happy Christmas to you too.
white westie
- 31 Dec 2006 12:06
- 2583 of 2787
Has this board closed down?
No one seems to use it anymore the last post was 11 days ago.
All the activity on Friday but still no one had anything to say.
If anyone is still around and looks in i would just like to say,
A HAPPY NEW YEAR TO YOU ALL.
Hope this gets to 1p and beyond very soon.
WW