Results out soon in August.

Broker recos look very bullish and why not on a P/E of just over 6 to 2011.....

Thomas Cook Group PLC

FORECASTS 2010 2011
Date Rec Pre-tax (�) EPS (p) DPS (p) Pre-tax (�) EPS (p) DPS (p)

Panmure Gordon
02-08-10 BUY 319.00 27.10 11.30 338.00 28.70 12.40

Exane BNP Paribas
02-08-10 BUY 116.00 26.62 10.75 319.00 28.87 11.66

Numis Securities Ltd
02-08-10 ADD 324.20 27.60 11.25 357.10 29.90 11.81

Oriel Securities
02-08-10 BUY 330.40 28.40 11.40 363.50 31.30 12.10

KBC Peel Hunt Ltd
30-07-10 BUY 301.06 25.22 10.75 313.36 26.23 10.93

WestLB
30-07-10 SELL 28.81 11.52 29.91 11.96

Shore Capital
30-07-10 HOLD 312.00 26.50 11.80 347.00 29.50 13.00

Charles Stanley Securities
15-06-10 HOLD

Evolution Securities Ltd
11-02-10 None

Investec Securities [R]
09-02-10 BUY 327.00 27.30 11.74 352.23 29.39 12.49

Fyshe Horton Finney Ltd
25-01-10 BUY

Collins Stewart
24-12-09 BUY

Nomura Research Institute
25-09-09 RED

2010 2011
Pre-tax (�) EPS (p) DPS (p) Pre-tax (�) EPS (p) DPS (p)

Consensus 316.42 26.98 11.36 342.50 29.39 11.96

1 Month Change 1.07 -0.22 0.01 3.43 -0.14 -0.14
3 Month Change -11.92 -1.09 -0.05 -11.79 -1.00 -0.44


GROWTH
2009 (A) 2010 (E) 2011 (E)

Norm. EPS 2.76% 0.38% 8.92%
DPS 14.03% 10.80% 5.26%

INVESTMENT RATIOS
2009 (A) 2010 (E) 2011 (E)

EBITDA �574.90m �589.69m �613.90m
EBIT �372.50m �420.55m �447.05m
Dividend Yield 5.38% 5.96% 6.27%
Dividend Cover 2.62x 2.38x 2.46x
PER 7.10x 7.07x 6.49x
PEG 2.57f 18.55f 0.73f
Net Asset Value PS -240.80p 224.47p 240.43p

I have just booked a holiday in one of their 3 (I think) shops in Chelmsford for the first time in years as their in shop prices now match their on line prices. The shop was very busy and according to the sales person, thing have been very busy since new year. Also they had run out of some foreign currencies, which I think is a pretty high margin side business. I intend to hold my shares until the early Feb results and sell out then, H

About 11/- 2d in old money now!

Heading quickly now for the next resistance point on the chart and the shorters diving for cover again. Morgan Stanley target of 60p beginning to look a bit conservative.

probably wrongly, though it is never so, i have banked my profit here at 56.75 ..... it has risen almost in a straight line and must at the very least be due for some consolidation

I think it will probably consolidate upon trading statement 1st wk feb. Am considering banking profit earlier than that but still think there is mileage in the sp yet. Am going to try & squeeze 60p out of it!

Looks to have over ''cooked''

Is it time to book profits in Thomas Cook?

By Darshini Shah | Mon, 14/01/2013 - 10:37

2012 was the year of Thomas Cook Group (TCG); back from the brink of bankruptcy, and ending the year with a share-price rise of more than 270%. But is it time for investors to book their profits?

Holiday demand on the wane

Trading in 2012 benefited from the UK, which accounts for 32% of Thomas Cook's sales, experiencing the wettest summer on record.

But what goes up must come down. Findings from market research agency Explore highlight that 40% of British consumers are expected to spend less on holidays abroad in 2013. And earnings growth is expected to remain muted in the coming year given significant job insecurity and an ongoing need for many companies to limit their costs in a very challenging environment, resulting in low consumer purchasing power.

"In addition we have concerns over [Thomas Cook] using easyJet (EZJ) as a third-party flying partner as there must be a risk this will lead to customers on these flights constructing their own holiday in future years rather than booking a package," warns Simon French, analyst at Panmure Gordon.

Thomas Cook's other regions don't seem to be doing too well either.

In its latest presentation, in November, the company stated: "[The] Eastern European businesses experienced difficult market conditions with general economic uncertainty together with local over-capacity", while "West Europe has continued to be affected by the ongoing political unrest in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region and the economic uncertainty caused by the European debt crisis".

The Dutch and Belgian markets were said to be "very price competitive", with Belgium also characterised by flight over-capacities. A decline in performance in North America was attributed to "over-capacity in the market which drove down average selling prices" as well as "a very mild Canadian winter which impacted the performance during the peak holiday period".

Nothing has changed since then. The eurozone debt crisis is unsolved; the MENA region is still in upheaval following the Arab Spring; while North America is now likely to be overshadowed by the fiscal cliff crisis.

Central Europe, West Europe, North Europe and North America account for 26%, 15%, 12% and 3% of sales respectively.

Single pricing a mirage

Bulls will say demand will pick up, as the tour operator offers uniform pricing across all three distribution channels of retail, online and phone.

However, there could still be variations in pricing across channels for components such as flight-only or room-only bookings. And French questions what the impact will be, "particularly when TUI Travel (TT.) continues to offer discounts on holidays booked online".

James Hollins, analyst at Investec, adds: "Uniform pricing should be well received by most consumers (less confusing and lower likelihood of a customer feeling they have overpaid relative to another), although some individuals used to getting the warm feeling of securing a discount online may not appreciate the strategy."

Poor track record of cost savings

Secondly, the group has outlined £100 million worth of cost savings, with more due to be announced in the spring. With an operating profit margin of just 1.6%, there is a clear need to reduce costs.

However, French points out that travel companies have a poor track record of cost savings being delivered to the bottom line, and believes that investors should be conservative when assessing how much of these should be included in profit forecasts.

He is assuming £60 million of UK improvement this year, and half of the £30 million of lost profits from bad publicity last year, will be recouped, along with all £13 million of the first year's cost savings. In years two and three, he forecasts only a third of cost savings will be delivered to the bottom line.

Rights issue on the way?

Thomas Cook has gross adjusted debt of £3.5 billion, with £540 million of EBITDAR.

French is of the opinion that the group needs to raise between £150 million and £300 million of equity to strengthen the balance sheet, which would reduce the 2014 pro-forma earnings per share from 3.9p to 3p.

Expensive valuation

Bulls attribute the share price reaction to the strength of new management, as well as a coherent and aggressive cost-saving programme being implemented that they say should ensure improved cash flow and earnings.

While there is some scepticism about how effective the cost-savings programme will be for the bottom line (see above), there is no doubt that Harriet Green as chief executive is an immensely impressive appointment for Thomas Cook.

However, it does appear that the hiring of the new management team, as well as any potential recovery, has been priced in. The stock is trading on a 2013 price/earnings (P/E) ratio of more than 20 times.

Next catalyst

Thomas Cook will unveil its interim management statement on 8 February.

Darshini Shah's article seems to be flying in the face of most of the latest financial press opinion about this share and the current demand for holidays in 2013. Looking at the chart, I agree with one of the best chartist in the business, who posts on another bulletin board, who says the immediate resistance level is 58p, then 75p, then 100p. Management statement is another three weeks away and the share price could well be testing 75p by then. jmop,dyor, etc.

No doubt the city like whats happening and have faith in the turnaround.
Thats all that matters - this will be the darling of the market this year. imho

quite possibly, but for now far enough - or at least so i thought a couple of days back .... nevertheless, sp is struggling quite badly to break through 58 and with dow heading south quite sharply today ......

TCG Thomas Cook Group


SHORTERS are closing.

here is the evidence.

When I posted this same chart about
a week ago 78 million was the figure
still in the stock.

Now you can see that the figure
is 70 million.

Thats a further 8 million closed out in
approx 5 working days.............

Still alot of shorters though. Would have been nice to see 70m closed out & only 8m still holding! ;o)

Yep now that would have seen some priice action UP.

Director/PDMR Shareholding

New news:-

Thomas Cook switches financial brief to FTI Consulting
Alec Mattinson, prweek.com, Thursday, 17 January 2013, 7:00am,

Package holiday group Thomas Cook has switched its financial PR adviser as the company strives to continue its revival from the brink of bankruptcy.


Period of change: Travel firm Thomas Cook
The UK-listed travel firm has appointed FTI Consulting to handle its City PR account, moving it from former incumbent RLM Finsbury.

The decision comes after a tumultuous period for Thomas Cook, which appointed new chief executive Harriet Green in July last year following a series of profit warnings and an emergency bank loan of £200m before securing its future in May 2012 via a £1.4bn refinancing package.

As well as the refinancing deal, Thomas Cook also restructured its comms unit last year.

It hired Jenny Peters for the newly created role of group head of comms in November as part of a major management restructure designed to re-energise its business.

Both Peters and Green were formerly at electronics firm Premier Farnell, where Peters was head of corporate comms. FTI also handles the financial comms account of Premier Farnell.

Peters confirmed to PRWeek that the firm had appointed FTI Consulting.

RLM Finsbury previously supported Thomas Cook through its 2007 merger with MyTravel. The agency had handled the group's retained financial brief since mid 2010.

Note out......

18 Jan Thomas Cook Group... TCG Morgan Stanley Overweight 55.88 54.75 60.00 60.00 Reiterates

Target SP 60p.

Gf, your shorters chart in post #329 has gone through the roof!

Yep and back down. Interesting.

Think their must have been a data glitch HARRY.

Taken some money off the table here today, it seems to be drifting atm.

25 Jan Thomas Cook Group... TCG UBS Buy 0.00 55.25 24.00 75.00 Upgrades

SP TARGET 75P UPGRADE.