Results out soon in August.

Broker recos look very bullish and why not on a P/E of just over 6 to 2011.....

Thomas Cook Group PLC

FORECASTS 2010 2011
Date Rec Pre-tax (�) EPS (p) DPS (p) Pre-tax (�) EPS (p) DPS (p)

Panmure Gordon
02-08-10 BUY 319.00 27.10 11.30 338.00 28.70 12.40

Exane BNP Paribas
02-08-10 BUY 116.00 26.62 10.75 319.00 28.87 11.66

Numis Securities Ltd
02-08-10 ADD 324.20 27.60 11.25 357.10 29.90 11.81

Oriel Securities
02-08-10 BUY 330.40 28.40 11.40 363.50 31.30 12.10

KBC Peel Hunt Ltd
30-07-10 BUY 301.06 25.22 10.75 313.36 26.23 10.93

WestLB
30-07-10 SELL 28.81 11.52 29.91 11.96

Shore Capital
30-07-10 HOLD 312.00 26.50 11.80 347.00 29.50 13.00

Charles Stanley Securities
15-06-10 HOLD

Evolution Securities Ltd
11-02-10 None

Investec Securities [R]
09-02-10 BUY 327.00 27.30 11.74 352.23 29.39 12.49

Fyshe Horton Finney Ltd
25-01-10 BUY

Collins Stewart
24-12-09 BUY

Nomura Research Institute
25-09-09 RED

2010 2011
Pre-tax (�) EPS (p) DPS (p) Pre-tax (�) EPS (p) DPS (p)

Consensus 316.42 26.98 11.36 342.50 29.39 11.96

1 Month Change 1.07 -0.22 0.01 3.43 -0.14 -0.14
3 Month Change -11.92 -1.09 -0.05 -11.79 -1.00 -0.44


GROWTH
2009 (A) 2010 (E) 2011 (E)

Norm. EPS 2.76% 0.38% 8.92%
DPS 14.03% 10.80% 5.26%

INVESTMENT RATIOS
2009 (A) 2010 (E) 2011 (E)

EBITDA �574.90m �589.69m �613.90m
EBIT �372.50m �420.55m �447.05m
Dividend Yield 5.38% 5.96% 6.27%
Dividend Cover 2.62x 2.38x 2.46x
PER 7.10x 7.07x 6.49x
PEG 2.57f 18.55f 0.73f
Net Asset Value PS -240.80p 224.47p 240.43p

Cyners if you look at chart above tha gap looks delicious. Not sure we'l get a pull back though.

Interesting that we are all prepared to invest in a company which has a market cap of approx £695m, but Q1 loss of £69.8m and total debt of £1.56bn ! Seems the appetite for risk is still there.

confess i fully expected sp to pull back sharply from 70, which is why it was not a hard decision to bank the profits at 66 (i recollect) ..... wish foresight was a foolproof as hindsight!

Happens too us all.

January traffic for Air France-KLM; TUI Q1 results show forward bookings strong, average selling prices up

DAVY VIEW
January traffics statistics continue to look positive. Although Air France-KLM's traffic numbers are affected by some adverse weather conditions, unit revenue (ex-currency) continued to progress versus the previous year. Thomas Cook and TUI Travel meanwhile are seeing increases in average selling price. TUI Travel is recording forward bookings in the UK and Nordic regions for summer 2013 ahead of last year, suggesting good demand.

http://www.davy.ie/davy/article.htm?id=Davy_Morning_Equity_Briefing_07022013_moneBLinkS0001C0001Sct.htm

not complaining ..... a banked good profit is exactly that!

Yep - looking good.

Massive opportunity here with that gap as you point out Skinny. Anyone thinking its too late think again imo.

Yes - I did expect more volume.

Thomas Cook Group plc Extends Multibagger Gain
By

Maynard PatonEmail .Published in Company Comment on 7 February 2013
1 comments The shares of Thomas Cook Group plc (LON: TCG) are up 469% since this time last year.

The shares of Thomas Cook (LSE: TCG) climbed 2p, or 3%, to 74p during early London trade this morning to extend their twelve-month gain to 469%.

The advance was prompted by a first-quarter statement that declared the travel agent's business transformation plan was "firmly on track".

Thomas Cook revealed underlying losses during October, November and December had reduced from £93m to £70m. Lower costs counterbalanced revenues that fell £137m to £1,724m.

The group also announced plans to reduce its costs by a further £60m a year, which will come on top of the £100m of cuts announced previously. Today's statement confirmed net debt stood at £1,559m, too.

Harriet Green, Thomas Cook's chief executive, said:

"As we continue to strengthen Thomas Cook and determine our profitable growth strategy for the future, the power of our brand remains key to the transformation.

We have seen stronger operating performances in our major markets - the UK, Germany and the Nordics. I am particularly pleased with the improved performance in the UK as the benefits of the turnaround plan are reflected in its operating results."

Looking ahead, the travel agent claimed future bookings were "robust" and "in-line with expectations" as the firm's "improved capacity management" led to higher sale prices and improved margins.

This time last year, Thomas Cook's shares were languishing around the 13p mark after a series of profit warnings during 2011 wiped more than 90% from the group's market value.

Today's market cap is £670m, which when added to the firm's average net debt level gives an enterprise value of £1.7bn. Assuming a margin of 3.5% -- achieved during 2008 and 2009 -- can be regained on last year's sales of £9bn, earnings might one day recover to £250m. That forecast could value the business at less than 7 times potential profits.

Of course, whether those projections are realistic -- and whether the shares can rally even further from here -- remain questions only you can answer.

http://www.fool.co.uk/news/investing/company-comment/2013/02/07/thomas-cook-group-plc-extends-multibagger-gain.aspx

Credit Suisse:

Extended cost savings drive upgrades
■ New 93p target price offers 30% upside: A solid Q1 and further £60m of
identified cost savings lifts our FY14 EBIT by £33m (EPS +29%). Our 93p
TP implies 30% upside potential, is consistent with a 34% PE discount to TT
(2009-12 avg), whilst post an equity raise of £300m (our midpoint scenario)
the Sept-15E PE would remain attractive at 5.9x – we retain an Outperform.
■ Q1 update and extended cost savings drive upgrades: The Q1 IMS
highlights: 1) +£23m improvement in the seasonal EBIT loss (40% of our
FY13 EBIT growth and vs CSe of +£20m) driven by operating cost savings;
2) improved gross margins (up 130bps); 3) sustained debt improvement
since Sept-12 supported by an increased working capital focus; 4) a £60m
extension to the cost saving plan bringing the total UK turnaround and cost
savings for FY13-15 to £240m. We factor in c50% of the extended targets,
raising 2014 EBIT and EPS by 8% and 29%.
■ Catalysts: Spring strategy update; May interim results (both dates TBC).
■ Target price raised to 93p; retain Outperform rating: We raise our TP to
93p based on a 3 year average PE discount to TUI Travel of 34% (applied to
FY14 and FY15 estimates – weighted 75%/25%). Using the midpoint of our
rights issue scenarios, the shares would trade on a post rights Sept-14E PE
of 7.0x falling to 5.9x in Sept-15E (TT.L equivalent PEs: 10.7x and 10.3x).

Worth a read....

http://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/53407/sunnier-outlook-for-thomas-cook--53407.html

http://www.iii.co.uk/articles/73769/falling-losses-dont-make-thomas-cook-buy?utm_source=iii.co.uk&utm_campaign=homepage_editors_pick&utm_medium=onpagelink&utm_content=editorial


Still not stopping it rising tho .. lol

Nar1, people who keep banging on and on about the debt just don't quite get it, they need to look at the bigger picture.imo Mind the gap - I like that chart Skinny.

Nar...........nar youve got it wrong and so as that editor up on iii Hes obviously just a fundys man and doesnt see the opportunity the TA on the chart presents.

Good luck tho.

I just posted the article as a FYI -

I just posted the article as a FYI -

FYI - ??? oh for your info?.

No probs.

That chaps got it wrong imo.

Might get a small pullback ist thing in the morning, then Ill add, but reckon itl go into weekend well up.

What ur realistic sp target? GF

122p by end of spring. Gap on chart filled.