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Presentation from Thursday 6th July 06 can be seen on oilbarrel !


Monterey appraisal well suspended pending Wintershall evaluation. 1/12/06
BLR and Kappa in dispute.
BLR to meet with Kappa within next two weeks 1/12/06

I am going to put new header with revised drilling for the year at top. This was discussed at oilbarrel presentation on Thursday 6th July 06.
Monday should see an RNS for Arce 4 testing or for sure next week.

Unfortunately it is going to be a bad news.Its is only my view and guessed it from this money raising tactic.If the new is going to be good,Do you think anyone in the right mind will try to raise money before the news is out--If the news is going to be good then the share price will go up and would be much easier to raise money without further dilution to existing issue.Therefore,what I think the news is going to be not so good and they don't want to loose the chance to raise money for furure plans.Be brave only the god knows the our futures will be---I am very tensed now-----------

Sorry to add my support that bad news is likely ...... take as an example VOG's latest report .... that canme out almost the last knockings of the timescale given ..... bad figures always take longer to add up than good.

You guys need to relax before you get an ulcer!The good thing about BLR is that they have a variety of regions to play with although I wish they would dip into the more risky regions like the Falklands were possible gains are huge and excite the market alot more.These so called safe spots are not producing alot of result!

Chav, the reason BLR isn't in the Falklands is because it would cost a lot of money that it just doesn't have. DES and FOGL are burning a lot of cash down there and it's going to be a long time before they produce any results. BLR very sensibly decided to go for overlooked projects that were near to production in order to produce near-term cashflow (in contrast to what they had going on in Australia a year or two ago, which was high-risk and produced nothing but dusters).

As for exciting the market, well, I'm afraid that at times both DES and FOGL have been overrated. The high SP's have been the result of a lot of speculation, and the realistion of the companies' vision just isn't there yet.

I would expect BLR to broaden its portfolio again once it starts producing in Colombia and/or the North Sea, as it will then hopefully have the cashflow basis with which to do so.

Re: the possible nature of forthcoming announcements: I'm afraid I can't give my backing to the pessimists all that easily. Greatsuccess, I have to wonder exactly what "good news" you might have been expecting. Arce has been, to a certain extent, a known quantity for a while. We know that there is oil there; we know that a typical well will flow around 30 bopd without stimulation such as steaming. So any announcement such as "Arce 4 has been drilled and is flowing 25-30 bopd" is within the realms of what was to be expected. They were never going to say, "Actually, Arce has surprised us all and is now producing at 15,000 bopd!" Of course, Arce 4 may turn out to be an abject failure, but I think it's unlikely. The greater excitement will come with news of successful steam testing, but thanks to BLR's excellent attention to detail in their presentation, it is now clear that the testing will take a while. It's also good to see the detail of the well-drilling programme for the rest of the field - which hopfeully augurs well for the economic viability of Arce, but we shall have to wait for the testing of wells 2 - 4.

I am not surprised that BLR has made another cash call, as they never have a huge amount of funds in the bank. In view of the SP activity (read: "instability") I think they have simply done the sensible thing and raised some more funds as and when needed, while the SP/placing price is still above 1p.

The news for the rest of the Las Quinchas Block looks good as well - maybe I've been asleep but I had not previously given consideration to the details regarding further prospects and leads on this block, i.e.:

Acacia (50-100mmbo*): heavy oil
prospect
South Lalinda (10 mmbo*):
heavy oil prospect
Rio Viejo/La Tolda (49 mmbo*):
light oil, 18,000 ft target depth
Morroa another deep Cretaceous
play

For my money, it looks like this one is heading in the right direction, but it could take time. It occurs to me also that BLR may have issued shares now at 1.1p out of respect for those who are involved in the placing - the company would become very unpopular if it issued stock at, say 2p on a price spike, only for the share price to drop back to current levels purely on volatility issues, and then there would be no more investors, no more placings, and no more Black Rock.

PS - Rutherford, thanks for updating the header and providing other useful info!

Chav - just a thought if you're keen on the Falklands. You may wish to check out Global Petroleum (GBP), which has about a 14% stake in FOGL, held as shares but has some diversity by virtue of its other portfolio interests. IMO, PDYOR.

Nobody likes dilution. But realistically it was always on the cards that BLR would need more cash to fund current ops... and the steaming delay only made that even more likely. Look on the bright side... if the placing has been fully taken up, then there are still some serious backers out there.

Sticking my neck out, I would guess that the end of next week will have seen little change in the sp. Come successful steaming and future benefits from Monterey, we may then see the sp do the right thing... but thats quite an assumption.

Judging by comments posted elsewhere, Soul, your anticipation of the Doc's return may prove to be spot on!

Ref below is a good Company Perspective

http://www.oil-barrel.com/conference/july/blackrock.pdf

If we get an rns about arce 4 testing results next week it should negate any negative sp movement due to dilution.
The instituions paid 10% higher than the last placing the other month.
The cash is now in place for Monterey and if successful it is the company maker rather than Arce which is the bankroll for future drilling like Bukhara and hopefully developement wells on Monterey. A good time to be in BLR IMHO.

Soultrader,DES didn't have any cash to kick off either but because the potential for huge reward is there they had no problem raising cash from people like me whereas BLR raise and fritter money at a lower rate.Sometimes you have to take the condom off to excite!
Falklands has proven world class source rock,very good tax regime,politically stable and being true Brits will continue to be friendly.I think their SP, if anythink, is undervalued given the possibilty of big finds.

I take the current SP as a cue to top up, and will do so at the next opportunity!

Possible drop on Monday as Tips ---Tom Winnifrith is saying sell now ?
Strange guy as he has been tipping them for over a year and now when something about to happen he is saying sell.
May get some cheap tomorrow although could be an RNS with test results which will move them on up a bit.
Anybodies guess for tomorrow?

Could Tom W now be shorting BLR? I wonder?

One hell of a gamble if he is!

the whole thing stinks doesn't it ?
hopefully, when, not if, we finally start getting good news RNS, it'll all be worth it !

Dont hold these but have been watching for days, and yes something does stink.

it's girm!

Thanks Tom for letting me add at a bargain price ;-)

moving up now.. should settle at placement price, or thereabouts once the MMs have fleeced the tim winnipeg muppets

Chav, good points, but I still think that the timescale involved provides too much opportunity for downside (at the risk of digging myself an even deeper hole, I'd add COP to the list; although it's not in the Falklands it's a good example of what I mean). For my money it's not so much a matter of taking the condom off to excite as of the risk that if you have to wait too long for things to gush then drooping inevitably sets in. (Your choice of metaphor makes me wonder precisely how you spend your spare time, though!).

At current levels, the Falklands exploration co's may be looking more attractive than previously, but given issues of rig availability (DES) and the long tail on seismic ops (FOGL), I wonder if maybe there's stilll some room for manoeuvre. Still, WDIK, PDYOR, etc.

Getting back on-thread, I'm not in the least worried by BLR's current gyrations. Bring on Colombia and Monterey! A word of thanks to DIYDave, post 425 and Rutherford post 426 for some good comments. Dave, you have definitely taken the sensible view in that you have to price in the potential for dilution when considering buying this share.