Will this increase or decrease the likelihood of terrorist actions in America, Europe and the rest of the world?

If you were a member of a family murdered in this conflict, would you be seeking revenge?

Should Tzipi Livni and Ehud Olmert, be tried for war crimes if or when this conflict comes to an end?

What will the price of oil be in 4 weeks time?

N.

Posting 4206 in response to02 Feb 2011 10:13

A little late, but I promised reply,

My posting Sometimes because the "ideals" are too "high", "patience" runs out, or greed takes over.
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F - can you put a value on 'ideal'? Isn't it just 'ideal' rather than high or low?

It is that 'ideals' differ from one to another, not that any is 'higher' or 'lower' than any other, as it is a subjective concept - is that not correct?
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Perhaps, I should have used expectancies rather than ideals.
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At the moment, I am surprised of the momentum, or enthusiasm for change which seems sustained in The Square .

Although the proposed bribe of increase in salaries may tempt some away.

Sad.


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Egypt's new Vice President Omar Suleiman or to be precise General Omar Suleiman has been head of intelligence since 1991 and is widely ragarded having been more violent to dissenters over the years than even Murabak. He is hated across Egypt for the actions of the secret police. Although the 1.3 million police nominally come under the Interior Ministry, in practice they actually just obey Suleiman.

"Documents leaked Monday say Egypt's new vice-president Omar Suleiman was Israel's prime candidate to succeed Hosni Mobarak and he communicated with the Israelis on a daily basis.

The secret US documents dating back to 2008 says David Hacham, a senior advisor from the Israeli war ministry, named Suleiman to assume the presidency in a number of cables.

The document passed by Wikileaks to the London-based Telegraph newspaper said Hacham praised Suleiman and hotlines between the Israeli ministry and Egyptian intelligence were used daily.

Hacham said the Israelis believe Suleiman will at least serve as interim president if Mubarak dies or incapacitated, according to the document.

"We defer to Embassy Cairo for analysis of Egyptian succession scenarios, but there is no question that Israel is most comfortable with the prospect of Omar Suleiman, the document quotes Tel Aviv diplomats as saying."

I have to admit that I think Mubarak and henchmen are playing their hands cleverly.

They dealt themselves their own hands and although I think within a six month period they will be out of power.

The problem is that the leadership being "corrupt" also appointed the administration.

If you cut off the head of the beast the body remains and may putrefy the whole system.

How, with what appears disorganised "opposition" parties and no defined leadership do you organise the state?

It will evolve, but will the process of change resemble the chaos of Iraq, subsequent to the American "abolition" of the "state's administration"?

i think you are too pessimistic as there are not the deep tribal divides that exist in iraq .... however, any transition is bound to be "lumpy", even if it is controlled by USA (how could that be??!!) with the army colluding (one hopes)

i think it is reasonable to expect an acceptably democratic election +/-end year

Cyn,

I would think the majority of the high ranking officers of the military forces were appointed by the "establishment", who then appointed their own "kin".

How do you utilise the system which is in place to keep Law and Order?

If the state's administration is not too corrupt then it is feasible, but when the administrators can only lose, it seems more problematical.

(A bit like hanging your own family.)

Mind!

saddam hussain had no problem with that! .... more seriously, the army has stayed remarkably neutral through all this trouble, so seemingly mubarak does not have the grip that he (and you?) might think ..... also, guess who would be happy to switch colours if the wind was blowing against

The Egyptian economy and power system is even worse than that. The military leaders usually end up in government at some stage. Most large companies are state owned; banks, energy companies etc. Military leaders that don't go into government, join the large companies at the top as do members of the government when they get fed up with governing. This system supports corruption as it means that the senior military have no incentive to change anything because they get their cash and huge pensions when they join the government owned companies.

When I started this thread I posed the question, "what would be the price of oil in 4weeks time?".

At that time it was about $40 /barrel.

Now it is over $!00 a barrel!



Thanks G and MM for answering my questions.

Nevertheless it continues for me very interesting thread.

Basically the military have been in control since Faroukh was overthrown as Egypt's leaders have always come from them. There is obviously an underlying support for the military despite that as the population regard patriotism and the army as being inextricably linked. Of course populations identify with the military more if there is conscription. The difference with Turkey is historical as Egypt hasn't experienced a Kemal Ataturk. The emergence of such a figure would be hugely beneficial to a society like Egypt and would build a secular state guaranteed by the military. That might prove to be an evolutionary phase in such countries. Certainly in Turkey there appears to be a growing democratic civil society which is gradually trying to shift real power from the military to a stable civilian government which controls the military rather than the reverse. I can't say I personally like the Erdogan administration, but ultimately true democracies rarely wage war on their neighbours and that is to everyone's benefit.
I suspect the realpolitik in Egypt is that the Muslim Brotherhood realise they will not be allowed to seize power as the army will prevent the Islamification of society they would want. Of course it won't stop them trying so interesting times lie ahead - and I don't mean that in the Chinese sense of the phrase.

Mubarak,

Will he go?
Has he gone?
Where has he gone?
Who replaces him?

Will other dominoes fall?

It looks like he has left Cairo for his holiday home. He has apparently left with the head of the army. State TV says he will give speech this evening.

I suspect he will pass authority to the army supreme council and not to the VP. This could then lead to the dissolution of parliament and the end of the present government. The army would then act as caretakers until elections. The final nail looks to be the increasing demo sizes and a possible indefinite general strike.

I saw a story on one of the Arab channels that the army prevented Mubarak from handing power to his Vice President. The army says it has acted to preserve Egyptian security. They have summoned the army security council and have said it will remain in permanent session for the time being. That would suggest at least a temporary army government.

I have seen more reports on Arab channels that Murabak has already taped an announcement to be shown after he leaves the country by helicopter. They are saying that the head of the army has gone with him to make sure he leaves the country. where will he go - Saudi? Maybe he should go to Israel as they seem to be the only country that wanted him to stay.

i should imagine saudi is favourite, though with his sybaritic style, just perhaps AD or even dubai

Your hatred of Israel knows no bounds, hay crapper.
So is this a new adventure for you, watching Arab TV no doubt looking for anti-Israel material?
Try Press TV, you'd find it orgasmic.
Why don't you copy and paste videos here?
Or haven't you got beyond Control + C, Control + V ?
You sad, sad person.
You really should go and give your life for your anti-semitic beliefs, instead of spending your life spouting propaganda.
I believe self-immolation is the latest fashion.
You should try it.
You'd give so many people so much pleasure.

I have watched Arab TV for years. I have a steerable sat dish. I watched direct uploads from the first gulf war in 1991 before they were edited for UK TV. I used to see the journalists doing set ups for broadcasts while there were incoming missiles and Kate Aide getting her make up put on in the back of an armoured PC.

Once again I have no anti-semitic beliefs. Why would I? You seem to be the parrot. All you can repeat is "Nazi" or "Anti-semitic" with no evidence. I am anti Israel (actually VERY anti Israel), but not anti Jewish.

Press TV is mostly a lot of nonsense. Aljazeera is a good service though. They have many ex BBC and Sky staff.

surely an oxymoron ..... Press TV is mostly a lot of nonsense. Aljazeera is a good service ..... ????????????????

Why an oxymoron? Do you watch either of them. Press TV is a mouthpiece for Iran. Aljazeera is a very good channel.

You can watch Aljazeera here

http://english.aljazeera.net/watch_now/

sorry; thought you meant general tv coverage ..... never heard of Press TV and yes, i too listen to aljazeera from time to time especially when in m/e

Press TV is on channel 515 on SKY sat decoders just after Al Jazeera. It is not quite as bad as you might think. Apparantly 100 million people watch the Al Jazeera English broadcast version. You can watch it in the US and Canada apart from Europe and the ME.

http://www.presstv.ir/