Results out soon in August.

Broker recos look very bullish and why not on a P/E of just over 6 to 2011.....

Thomas Cook Group PLC

FORECASTS 2010 2011
Date Rec Pre-tax (�) EPS (p) DPS (p) Pre-tax (�) EPS (p) DPS (p)

Panmure Gordon
02-08-10 BUY 319.00 27.10 11.30 338.00 28.70 12.40

Exane BNP Paribas
02-08-10 BUY 116.00 26.62 10.75 319.00 28.87 11.66

Numis Securities Ltd
02-08-10 ADD 324.20 27.60 11.25 357.10 29.90 11.81

Oriel Securities
02-08-10 BUY 330.40 28.40 11.40 363.50 31.30 12.10

KBC Peel Hunt Ltd
30-07-10 BUY 301.06 25.22 10.75 313.36 26.23 10.93

WestLB
30-07-10 SELL 28.81 11.52 29.91 11.96

Shore Capital
30-07-10 HOLD 312.00 26.50 11.80 347.00 29.50 13.00

Charles Stanley Securities
15-06-10 HOLD

Evolution Securities Ltd
11-02-10 None

Investec Securities [R]
09-02-10 BUY 327.00 27.30 11.74 352.23 29.39 12.49

Fyshe Horton Finney Ltd
25-01-10 BUY

Collins Stewart
24-12-09 BUY

Nomura Research Institute
25-09-09 RED

2010 2011
Pre-tax (�) EPS (p) DPS (p) Pre-tax (�) EPS (p) DPS (p)

Consensus 316.42 26.98 11.36 342.50 29.39 11.96

1 Month Change 1.07 -0.22 0.01 3.43 -0.14 -0.14
3 Month Change -11.92 -1.09 -0.05 -11.79 -1.00 -0.44


GROWTH
2009 (A) 2010 (E) 2011 (E)

Norm. EPS 2.76% 0.38% 8.92%
DPS 14.03% 10.80% 5.26%

INVESTMENT RATIOS
2009 (A) 2010 (E) 2011 (E)

EBITDA �574.90m �589.69m �613.90m
EBIT �372.50m �420.55m �447.05m
Dividend Yield 5.38% 5.96% 6.27%
Dividend Cover 2.62x 2.38x 2.46x
PER 7.10x 7.07x 6.49x
PEG 2.57f 18.55f 0.73f
Net Asset Value PS -240.80p 224.47p 240.43p

My neighbours are always complaining about not having enough money - "oh no, we couldn't possibly contribute to repairing the fence" - but they have already booked their usual two week holiday to Turkey with the children during the Summer holidays. I think Joe Public will just put other expenses on the back burner so that they can go on holiday.

Does TCG quote forward bookings.

At the rate the pound is drifting against the Euro I have a feeling the number wandering abroad for holidays in the short term will be lower than usual. That applies to the highs and lows of society.

Maybe wrong but I feel lucky that I traded in and out, but going back to watching for a while.

DOW up 140 points at the moment Fred, if you are trying to trade this share I think you should have traded back in on the dip the last couple of days. imo

Talking of having enough money to take a break with TCG, I have just received an e-mail from TCG-Sport for a round trip to Milan to see Spurs play!

http://www.thomascooksport.com/

I never even knew they had a dedicated web site for sports fans! (and no, I won't be going before anyone asks! Prefer F1 to footy if I have to spend big money!).

I take it you are a Milan fan Harry :-)

Sunday Times.........

Thomas Cook plots sell-offs

HARRIET GREEN is considering a spring clearout of Thomas Cook businesses.

As part of her shake-up of the company, the holiday giant’s chief executive is examining whether to sell Thomas Cook Essentials, which offers extras such as insurance and airport parking; Thomas Cook Sport, a provider of packages to events; and Elegant Resorts, which offers upmarket trips.

Green has already earmarked Neilson, the ski holiday specialist, for possible sale, as revealed two weeks ago by The Sunday Times.

Insiders stressed that no decisions on the future ownership of the various Thomas Cook businesses have been taken. Some may be retained.

Analysts at Morgan Stanley have suggested the holiday company could raise between £100m and £150m from sell-offs, but cautioned that this would affect revenues. Thomas Cook has debt of £1.6bn.

Green, who arrived in July, is to present her plans for Thomas Cook’s revival to investors on March 13. She is expected to announce an offloading of non-core businesses but is unlikely to identify which will be sold.

Thomas Cook should be getting added to the FTSE 250 on Wednesday. Has anyone any experience of what historically, generally happens to a companies share price when this happens. Do they get a spike upwards in the share price on the day they enter?

Review of French Business
We have now concluded the review of Thomas Cook's French business and following this process we have taken the decision to retain the business within the Group and implement a specific Transformation programme for France to improve performance. The business will now come under the direct responsibility of our Continental European segment with Reto Wilhelm, Managing Director West and East, taking overall responsibility for the business from 1 April. The French leadership team will report to Reto Wilhelm.

Peter Fankhauser, CEO UK & Continental Europe, said:

"This is a positive move forward for our customers and employees in France as we implement our plans to return the business to profitability under the leadership of our senior French team, working closely with Reto Wilhelm, a skilled and experienced European travel executive."

think weve been promoted if I rember the rules right.

Thats to FTSE 250.

I stand to be corrected.

Are you using the "royal we" there goldfinger!

UK Business Transformation Update
As part of its ongoing Business Transformation, Thomas Cook Group plc today began a consultation process to restructure its UK business.

Subject to that consultation, this process would see the Group's UK workforce reduced by 2500 full-time roles, mostly in back-office functions and its retail network, including some store closures. The Group currently employs 15,500 across the UK & Ireland. The cost benefit of these changes, and the costs of achieving them, have already been included in the cost-out numbers previously announced.

Peter Fankhauser, CEO Continental Europe & UK, commented:

"It is never easy to make decisions that impact directly on our people, but we also owe it to our customers to shape the business effectively and ensure that, when they book their holiday with us, our administrative costs are as low as possible. As we improve and develop our online capabilities, maintaining a strong presence on the High Street is an important part of our omni-channel strategy. Even after these changes we will still have one of the largest retail networks in UK travel.

It is essential that we operate with the right number of people as we move forward into the next era for our company, allowing us to meet the future needs of our customers more effectively. These proposals will mean a stronger Thomas Cook that continues to be a major employer in the UK dedicated to providing excellent holiday experiences to our 23 million customers. We are in consultation with our Unions and employee representative bodies to minimise the impact of these changes and I am speaking personally to all employees today to provide information and support through this period of consultation."

The market seems to like this news.

Correction, market initially seemed to like it - but now having second thoughts! Perhaps the view is that the cuts are not tough enough. Don't know, I'm just guessing.

SP moving up now.

Sky News;

Holiday firm Thomas Cook says it is planning to axe 2,500 UK jobs to "secure" its future.

It plans to consult on proposals to close 195 of its 1,069 high street travel agencies, with the details being announced at a later date.

Thomas Cook is also planning to shut its Accrington office in the North West in a move impacting around 100 roles.

Administrative and managerial jobs are also at risk across its head office in Peterborough and its Preston site.

The job losses amount to 16% of its 15,500 workforce in the UK and Ireland.

In a statement, the company said: "As Thomas Cook UK & Ireland continues to focus on the turnaround of the business it has today entered a 90 day consultation process with a number of its UK employees on the next phase of the three-year programme to transform its operations.

"The need to evolve the UK business has been a clearly stated goal, accelerated by the appointment of Peter Fankhauser, an experienced Thomas Cook leader as UK CEO.

"The UK business needs to reduce cost to ensure back-office costs are not passed on to customers and that the necessary operational changes are made to reflect evolving customer needs, and purchasing requirements."

It continued: "The company has 1,069 stores in the UK, making it the largest high street travel retailer. A number of these stores do not meet the performance targets of the business and are in communities where Thomas Cook has more than one retail outlet.

"This consultation aims to address excess capacity, without compromising the 'omni-channel' customer experience."

Mr Fankhauser added: "Thomas Cook is a much loved brand that needs to make the proposed changes to secure our future and provide continued employment for many thousands across the UK and better meet the needs of our customers going forward.

"It is essential that we operate with the right number of people as we move forward into the next era for our company.

"It is never easy to make decisions that impact directly on our people, but we also owe it to our customers to operate efficiently and ensure that when they book their holiday with us our administrative costs are as low as possible.

“We firmly believe these proposals will mean a better – more profitable – Thomas Cook that continues to be a major employer in the UK and offer the widest range of holidays for travellers and voyagers in the future.

"We are already consulting with our Unions and employee representative bodies to minimise the impact of these changes and I am speaking personally to all employees today to provide information and support through this period of consultation."

Thomas Cook's transformation plan was blamed for deeper losses in its last financial year.

The 171-year-old company reported a statutory loss of £590m for the 12 months to the end of September - worse than the £518m loss recorded the previous year.

Thomas Cook was under pressure to tighten its purse strings at a time of a slowdown in consumer spending and had already cut planes, stores and other costs ahead of today's announcement.

ITV news coverage of the story a disgrace - made it sound as if the company was on the brink of collapse instead of on the road to recovery. I wouldn't like to be in their shoes if Harriet was listening!!

07 Mar Thomas Cook Group... TCG Oriel Securities Buy 84.63 86.00 - - Retains

Majority of customers eshewing high street agents, says TripAdvisor

As Thomas Cook announced it was to close 195 more high street stores and shed a further 2,500 jobs (see story), TripAdvisor claimed only 7% of holidaymakers went into a travel agency to book their last holiday .


The online travel review site said its TripBarometer survey found that globally the majority of holidaymakers (27%) booked via web-based travel agencies. A further 23% booked direct with the accommodation's own websites.


However, as the survey was carried out online, from December 2012 to January 2013, it's perhaps not surprising that the majority of the 35,000 people surveyed were more inclined to book on the internet.


Travel Counsellors chairman David Speakman, who last week was quoted saying the "the high street is dead", claimed there had been a 700% increase in the use of the internet and mobile phone subscriptions over the past 12 years. "You cannot expect that this expansion in customer access to the web will not have an effect," he said.


"The high street is in decline but the travel agent is not. Agents are defined by what they do and who they are and not where they work."

Thursday, March 7, 2013

Just a reminder for those still in :-

March 13th - Pre-close trading update and capital markets day

Heavy selling today if the buy/sell ratios are to be believed.