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Retail Decisions - The only decision you need to make is when to buy! (RTD)     

overgrowth - 13 May 2005 16:36

Retail Decisions are market leaders in an industry which continues to grow exponentially. They produce payment fraud systems solutions for major blue chip clients globally, though the bulk of the business is currently coming from the major reatilers both in the UK and US. They are a Techmark 100 company which means that there will always be a level of institutional interest in the company. However, on top of this "forced" interest from the tracker funds there has throughout 2005 been sustained large buying from no other than Goldman Sachs and Barclays. These institutions together now have an investment of tens of millions of shares in RTD !

Shares Magazine had a cover feature back in early April entitled "ATOMIC! - Small is about to get VERY, VERY BIG - 7 stocks for the new technology revolution". It was no surprise to see Retail Decisions as part of the selection.

Here's what Shares had to say: "Retail Decisions is a specialist software developer aimed at preventing credit card fraud. It owns a database of several million dodgy credit and debit card numbers against which it crosschecks transactions, but also has developed clever software which can spot strange patterns in your spending. This system is perfect for stopping phony credit card transactions. Investors could not ask for a better pure play on rising credit card crime. Perhaps the company's biggest challenge is scale but chief exec Carl Clump is attempting to address this with aquisitions, even if opportunities seem to be few and far between. In the meantime, Retail Decisions remains concentrated on developing in the card-not-present arena, where it already has fantastic experience and technology. The drive to win new customers should also be helped by the fact that it already serves so many blue-chip customers including Marks & Spencer, T-Mobile and, most recently, Federated Department Stores, the US owner of Macy's and Bloomingdales. Let's not forget, too, the company's highly profitable fuel-card business in Australia which grew 30% last year, making this year's forecast low single-digit earnings growth look on the conservative side."

Retail Decisions have continued throughout 2005 to rake in very healthy profits from the Oz. fuel card business thanks to the "bonus" of high oil prices and favourable exchange rates. In addition, the extra revenue streams from new major US corporate clients will be starting to filter through. In the US, Retail Decisions appear to be chosen on many occasions over their main rival Cybersource which indicates just how well this company is doing. The demand for card-not-present (i.e. internet/phone shopping) fraud software is going to continue to grow and grow so RTD presents guaranteed success in this arena - backed up with the cash cow fuel card business which is being extended into locations other than Australia and we have a real gem of a company. Longer term target 1+.

Chart.aspx?Provider=Intra&Code=RTD&Size=Chart.aspx?Provider=EODIntra&Code=RTD&Si

Douggie - 27 Jan 2006 16:57 - 588 of 1009

and another flat week passes by.........................!

I wish I had 1 for every time ' be patient' has been said of RTD it would have been a very good income +50%on my weekly pension ;-\

Douggie - 31 Jan 2006 10:17 - 589 of 1009

sod the be patient.........this is exaspiration ........ :-[

Douggie - 31 Jan 2006 13:18 - 590 of 1009

OH! heck............. ;-/

pachandl - 31 Jan 2006 14:13 - 591 of 1009

Heck indeed. I have not heard anything that would cause this drop so I am assuming that the MMs have waited until volume has dropped off (post trading update) and have started to see exactly where the strength lies in terms of resistance levels.

Douggie - 01 Feb 2006 09:46 - 592 of 1009

Mourning All ....retrace started early this year ???????????? ;-/

pachandl - 01 Feb 2006 13:46 - 593 of 1009

Seems to have hit a short-term resistance level. Let's hope it now consolidates in the 145-150p range over the next few days before moving forward.

55011 - 01 Feb 2006 14:11 - 594 of 1009

Month's chart shows a rise off higher lows. Bullish.

Douggie - 02 Feb 2006 11:25 - 595 of 1009

;o\

Fred1new - 02 Feb 2006 12:21 - 596 of 1009

Wait for company update. SP has increased 35% over last 3/12.

Douggie - 02 Feb 2006 17:36 - 597 of 1009

thats true Fred ........ but sp should never have been back down there

wish I'd had some cash to take up offer ..but ALL my cash bin here for 30 mth now

please don't let it retrace as last 2 yrs ;o/

55011 - 02 Feb 2006 18:41 - 598 of 1009

You should keep a closer watch on company news releases, Fred. The following was released by RTD on 17th January 2006.


Retail Decisions plc

Trading Statement

"Results Expected to Exceed Expectations"


Retail Decisions (ReD), the payment card issuer and a world leader in card fraud
prevention and payment processing, is pleased to announce trading has been
better than expected in the final quarter of its financial year and that the
initial results from the two recent acquisitions are also both ahead of
forecasts.

As a result, the Board expects the Group's profit before tax (for the year to 31
December 2005) to be in excess of current market expectations.


Current Trading

Trading in ReD's Australian Fuel Card operation has remained very buoyant with
the strong organic performance reported in the first half continuing into the
second half. This operation has benefited from ongoing growth in the number of
its fuel cards in issue and also from the continued high fuel price (which
increases ReD's commission on card sales).

ReD's Fraud Prevention & Payment Processing operation had a slightly better
second half of the year compared to the first half. The focus has continued to
be on the newer higher margin e-commerce and mobile telephone 'top-up' Card Not
Present (CNP) area, where excellent progress has been made.


Update on Recent Acquisitions

ReD made two acquisitions in late 2005 for a total of #36.7m. Fuelserv, the
UK's second largest operator in the independent fuel card and 'bunkering'
sector, was acquired in November for #23.8m. E Com Industries, Australia's
largest pre-paid gift card operator, was acquired in December for #12.9m.

In the seven weeks since completing the acquisition of Fuelserv the business has
performed ahead of the Group's expectations. Since completion, work has
commenced on increasing the network of sites that accept the Fuelserv payment
card and on improving its marketing and branding.

E Com has demonstrated some encouraging signs in the brief period since its
acquisition by ReD was completed on 5 December 2005. Transaction volumes in
December (traditionally the busiest month of the year) were more than double
those in the same period in 2004.

The integration of E Com into ReD's existing Australian Fuel Card Operation is
progressing as planned. In line with ReD's aim to migrate E Com's pre-paid card
offer into other ReD geographic regions outside Australia, the first UK card
launch (for Harvey's World Travel) was announced on 28 December.


Commenting, Carl Clump, Chief Executive of ReD said:

"We are very pleased with the strong trading performance achieved by our
established businesses as well as the contributions from our recent
acquisitions, which are better than expected. The last three months have seen
striking developments in our business. ReD is now a dramatically larger and
different company to what it was a year ago and as a result it is well
positioned to maintain the considerable growth seen in our first six years."


ReD intends to announce its Preliminary Results in early March.


-ENDS-

Notes to Editors:


ABOUT ReD

Retail Decisions (ReD) is a payment card issuer and a world leader in card fraud
prevention and payment processing.

ReD is international - based in the UK, US, Australia and South Africa with
representation in Japan and South America - and has over 17 years experience in
the fraud prevention market.

ReD is a specialist supplier to the payments industry worldwide and is a
recognised industry leader with a blue-chip international client base. ReD's
customers come from the telecommunications, retail, travel, petroleum, banking
and the broader e-commerce sectors.

ReD's international blue-chip clients include: Wal-Mart, Macy's, Bloomingdale's,
Tesco, Texaco, Shell, Asda, Comet, Travelocity, T-Mobile and Virgin Mobile.



ReD has Fuel Card Operations in Australia, the UK and Europe and Pre-paid Card
Operations in Australia.

In Australia, ReD's Fuel Card operation is the largest multi-branded card
business in that region. 'Multi-branded' - can be used in more than one brand
of filling station. ReD's cards are accepted at almost all of the 6,500 fuel
stations throughout Australia and at around 8,250 other outlets that provide
services for business drivers.

In the UK and Europe, ReD's fuel card business is the UK's second largest
operator in the independent fuel card and 'bunkering' sector by fuel volume with
over 65,000 cards in issue and around 6,300 live customer accounts. Clients
include DHL, Norfolk Line and P&O Ferry Masters, amongst others. The UK and
European fuel card business (Fuelserv) was acquired in November 2005.

In December 2005, ReD acquired E Com, Australia's largest Pre-Paid card
operator. Pre-paid cards, such as gift cards, insurance claim cards and
pre-paid fuel cards, are one of the fastest growing areas in the payments
market. Pre-paid cards are those payment cards where the consumer can spend a
pre-determined amount that has previously been loaded onto the card. Pre-paid
cards can be 'single use' or 're-loadable' and can be designed for use at the
outlets of a single retailer or be used at multiple retailers (e.g. a shopping
centre might issue a card that can be used at each of the stores within it).

ReD's Fraud Prevention Operation provides services that maximise the
transactions that can be safely accepted by merchants (i.e. maximises profits)
while minimising a client's exposure to fraud. It also dramatically reduces
in-house fraud checking costs. ReD currently protects over 50,000 points of
sale globally.


Douggie - 03 Feb 2006 15:22 - 599 of 1009

YES 55011 all that good news + all the positives over last 2 years.....

and we are 20p up on 2years ago............;-/

be patient I am told ... well I have been ..no need to say more :-[

Fred1new - 03 Feb 2006 16:03 - 600 of 1009

55 Iwrote that!














8-)

boxerdog - 04 Feb 2006 17:57 - 601 of 1009

Have been a holder of rtd on and off since the card clear era. patience ran out and bailed out at 26.7p. Results due out in march and after so many false dawns i still find my self attracted and drawn to them.Am tempted to climb aboard yet again , would hate to miss the party ,would appreciate constuctive advice,encouragement just need a little push in the right direction.

Fred1new - 04 Feb 2006 20:45 - 602 of 1009

boxerdog, check analyst opionion on Digital and Barclays.
The opinions are favourable with suggestions of SP of about 200p.

The forecasted earnings would support a price of 200+.
I held these shares in the Tech bubble, just getting out of them before the bubble burst.

I was lucky enough to buy in again at about 5p. And bought again at various prices. Annoyed i didn't get out in September but believed the price was to low.


I think it is a safe bet but DYOH.

biffa18 - 04 Feb 2006 20:52 - 603 of 1009

iv bailed out as this just taking to long and money can be used elsewhere also unless figs are really bril i can see 1.90 tops anyway short term maybe wrong but anyone disagree with 1.90 or think alot higher,also company has announced results will be good so think that is in sh price already.......comments anyone !!

boxerdog - 05 Feb 2006 10:38 - 604 of 1009

Thanks Fred,homework already done ,in retrospect should never have sold but can never call it right all of the time.I will be rejoining you tomorrow and would be delighted to achieve 1.80+ short term.ps.any thourghts on KMR,holding large chunk at present.

optomistic - 05 Feb 2006 11:23 - 605 of 1009

biffa, I do agree with your comment about the good results being in the share price already. Overall RTD has the likelihood of having great potential, but I think it could be longer to realise than many of us had thought. Right now the sp looks to be in a slight downtrend which needs to change before further progress can be made.
boxerdog, hope you are right in your decision to re-enter tomorrow. Any further purchase be me will have to be preempted by a change in the short term trend.
opto

boxerdog - 05 Feb 2006 12:41 - 606 of 1009

optomistic,if my memory serves me correctly, around this time of year there occurs a definite surge in the sp.of RTD.Last year it traded as high as 37p. or 1.85.only to fall back upon presentation of results.If this years preformance has infact surpassed last years,might a figure off 1.80 be reasonably expected.Might there be news of a maiden dividend ? who know .

optomistic - 05 Feb 2006 12:59 - 607 of 1009

boxer, in the future I also think that 180p is on the cards, I just have my doubts as to the near term likelyhood of that.
Dividend? well we all must have our inner views on that. Certainly it would be a welcome move but personally I don't think it will arrive with these results. I would expect them to announce sometime (in the future) that we hope to announce that we will pay a dividend at '...........' Seems to be the way it is done and delays the payment of cash for that little bit longer.
opto
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