Amities . l have been discreetly buying this stock since it was 39p . And the more i learn the bolder are the positions i take . .....Floated in Dec 2004 it was oversubscribed and before costs the required $15 million was raised. At the helm is ex BP head of Global exploration and Resavoir management . Furthermore a success story at Global Expo . Now Nick Johnstone wants to set up on his own . And after speaking to him l am not at all surprised . He is like a "Who s Who " of the hydrocarbon world ...He has ALL the prerequisites for success so why work for some other lackey ! .. namely connections from his ertwhistle employers . He has assembled a first class management team from ex colleauges at BP ; and is his business model is simple . AFR farms in on "Big Oils " inception upstream ; and with its scale of economy it works closely with "Big oils" fields on the look out for excellent workovers oppertunities .... Already lt has via a complicated j/v a percentage of the Sao Tome and Principe acreage -Located between the oil rich waters of Nigeria and those of Sao Tome and operated by Texaco / Chevron and Esso; and believed by many to be the new North sea . . 3D Seismic testing and magnetic graphic imagery and satellite imaging has located a labyrinth of channels leading to a main resavoir which is believed to14-15 mmbbls of oil and which would leave AFR with its share of 120/140 million barrels for NO cash outlay .To ensure early cash generation Afren has entered into a production sharing agreement in the developed Ogedeh field { adjacent to the BP operated Olowi marin field which is believed to yield 180 mmbbloe. Furthernore AFR has agreed to drill the lbekelia project for Ascent resources which is expected to produce 2,500 b/pdoe to satisfy AFR percentile share ,ln addition it is a believed resouce of several years . .. , .Not a bad start for a company with little more than six months in the making . ....and well worthy of investigation !! .....@+ J

took a deep breath and also bought another slab at 32.75, and so far so good as a bit of a recovery under way.

with a twitchy market and fiscal y/e looming, there's plenty of trading profits to be made if one is lucky enough to get the timing and rhythm correct - and also avoid the pitfall of GREED

Sometimes i take a deep breath cynic when i see your name against one of the stocks wondering whether its positive or negative comments -) and glad now i can rest easy,, good look with the trade

you are too easily scared - lol!

RF nervous at 33p just think of those who bought at 46p, you should be thankful for the retraction "thats why you got them so cheap"? Could go 30p so what its where they finish up to, long term??
cyril

.

I expect a bumpy day tomorrow but a good recovery next week!

hard to call all round for tomorrow .... that is why i have traded very actively for the last few days, and over all, have taken quite a lot of money off the table so that i have the wherewithal to jump in if something suddenly looks tasty

had another 3 top ups today, is it just me or is this the best buy on the market.

more and more of my portfolio is getting sucked in here as the value screams out, lets hope it doesn't implode for all our sakes.

gl everyone.

i'll let you know by noon on monday!

Morning Richard, I'm all topped up as well and looking forward to results and beyond.

Lost loads elsewhere so am using this as one of my recovery plays.

"Oilbarrel.coms 24th conference in the City of London coincided with the mass anti-globalisation, anti-capitalism, anti-everything protests that preceded this weeks G20 summit. But oilbarrel.com delegates are a hardy bunch and it takes more than a few thousand protestors to keep them from hearing a good investment case. Im so glad to see you have found your way through the crowds of anarchists, said chairman Barney Smith as he greeted yet another packed conference room, with latecomers going to the video-link overspill room downstairs. (Our genial host then risked a mini-riot, however, as he cautioned that thirsty delegates would have to pay for their next tipple once the free lunch time wine ran dry).


Fortunately, Galib Virani, head of acquisitions and investor relations at Afren plc, was on hand to divert the crowd with an update on the AIM firms operations. Afren is the first company to have presented five times at an oilbarrel.com event and those five presentations have marked milestones in the transformation of this start-ups fortunes. The company listed on AIM in 2005 and since then it has made good on its ambitions to be a fast-moving, pan-African independent. Afren currently produces around 27,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day from its fields in Nigeria and Cote dIvoire and has built a diversified asset base that stretches across six West African countries. In just four years, the company has proven its ability to not only deliver what it promises, hitting its IPO production target last year when the Okoru Setu field in Nigeria came onstream in May, but also to exceed expectations: production is currently running 47 per cent ahead of the 15,000 bpd guidance set by the company and output from the Cote dIvoire fields has increased by 10 per cent since Afren assumed control from the previous operator Devon Energy.

The rising production profile means the company is strongly cash generative. We are profitable and resilient at the current oil price, said Virani, adding that the firm has all of its Cote dIvoire production hedged at US$83 a barrel and 17 per cent of its Nigerian output hedged at US$55 a barrel, providing some comfort on future revenues in the face of oil price volatility. The company has a robust financial position and its 2009 work programme is fully funded.

Even so, the company is taking care to cut costs headcount is down by 10 per cent, for example and the portfolio is being high-graded towards the very promising Ebok field in Nigeria and away from the small marginal field developments that were the companys initial footsteps in that resource-rich nation. Afren partners local companies in Nigeria in order to capitalise on the favourable fiscal terms and project opportunities available under the countrys policy to foster an indigenous oil and gas industry. On this basis, the company is enjoying a fairly healthy netback of US$20 a barrel from the Okoru Setu field, a greenfield development that Afren turned around in just two years.

It is now planning a similar fast-track development at Ebok, which it signed up to in May 2008 and quickly drilled the successful Ebok-4 appraisal well just six months later. Ebok lies in OML 67 in the eastern Niger Delta, some 50 km offshore in 135 feet of water. The field is surrounded by ExxonMobil fields that pump some 850,000 bpd, testimony to the quality of this acreage. The Ebok structure, covered by 3D seismic and four wells, is reckoned to hold some 150 to 180 million barrels of oil in place, of which 52 million barrels are thought to be recoverable with each well expected to produce at rates of 3,500 bpd. The company is planning to bring this onstream via an Early Production System in early 2010 at a rate of 15-25,000 bpd, ramping up to a full field development of 35-50,000 boepd by the end of 2010.

This would put Afren on track for an exit rate of 65-70,000 boepd by the end of 2010, a number that puts it in line with City darling Tullow Oil and ahead of E&P stalwarts like Cairn Energy, Venture Production, Premier Oil and Dana Petroleum. This would likely coincide with a move to LSEs main board, with the company also considering a listing in Nigeria to strengthen its Nigerian ownership and put it in line to benefit from indigenous terms on its own right. This was a lively presentation from a company that knows where it wants to go and shows every sign of getting there"

hi old son; hope you are keeping well, to make a bad pun! ..... where have you been? .... hiding in a "duster"? ....... i can tell you all about losing money on the markets, though i am not quite as unerring at it as maestro! ..... in fact, the last several weeks have treated me very well and have recouped quite a bit

Is maestro still living in his caravan?

My trouble is that I keep setting too high targets and seem to miss profit taking chances. Mind you I would prefer that to missing out completely.

Been keeping well myself, wife and family reasonably happy, and grandchild no 2 is on the way in October, and all seems to be going along honky dory at the moment.

Been reading a lot on the other side lately on adv.....fn as I find the boards a lot more informative because there are a lot more posters.

Cheers blanche, asome points from the above OB presentation.
Cutting costs head count down 10%
Profit of $20a bo with some hedged at $83bo
Within 12 months 15/25,000bopd from Ebok
Could rank along side TLW and better than Cairns Dana and VPC???
TLW is something like 40 times our M/Cap.
Looking rosy for the future, seems we have to get by today and with results Monday "SKYS THE LIMIT" saya with tongue in cheek??
cyril
PS I did say possibly another TLW

Cheers blanche, asome points from the above OB presentation.
Cutting costs head count down 10%
Profit of $20a bo with some hedged at $83bo
Within 12 months 15/25,000bopd from Ebok
Could rank along side TLW and better than Cairns Dana and VPC???
TLW is something like 40 times our M/Cap.
Looking rosy for the future, seems we have to get by today and with results Monday "SKYS THE LIMIT" saya with tongue in cheek??
cyril
PS I did say possibly another TLW

Cheers blanche, asome points from the above OB presentation.
Cutting costs head count down 10%
Profit of $20a bo with some hedged at $83bo
Within 12 months 15/25,000bopd from Ebok
Could rank along side TLW and better than Cairns Dana and VPC???
TLW is something like 40 times our M/Cap.
Looking rosy for the future, seems we have to get by today and with results Monday "SKYS THE LIMIT" says with tongue in cheek?????
We can all dream a little "sometime". lol
cyril
PS I did say possibly another TLW

HERE WE GO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

This is not going to be below 40p for much longer imo

Blanche ;yes this does look positive now(38prange)the OB article is imo making the difference. I think i will start a new thread come the weekend,as we need a chart.
cyril

POSTED ON ANOTHER BB
From Upstream newspaper today

West Africa-focused independent
Afren is set to award a contract
by the end of June for the
provision of a floating production,
storage and offloading vessel at its
ebok field off Nigeria.
Chief executive Osman shahenshah
said that the competition is
now down to two or three contenders
from the five companies
originally invited to bid for the
lease contract last year.
He said the aim is to award a
contract this quarter and discussions
are under way.
shahenshah declined to name
the FPsO bidders but one wellplaced
industry source suggested
the Norwegian trio of Aker
Floating Production, BW Offshore
and Fred Olsen Production may
all be in the running.
However, the same source also
believed that Oceaneering may
get a look due to recent personnel
changes in Afrens project team.
Malaysias Bumi Armada,
which supplied the FPsO on
Afrens first Nigerian project,
Okoro-setu, is not thought to be
a key contender.
the exact specifications of the
FPsO are unclear while Afren
evaluates whether to go for a
smaller early production system
and later either modify this unit
to boost its capacity or replace it
with a larger FPsO.
Alternatively, the operator and
its Nigerian partner Oriental
energy could perhaps go straight
for a larger vessel.
If an ePs is selected, it could
begin handling between 15,000
and 25,000 barrels per day of oil
early next year from five or more
horizontal production wells and
one water injector drilled in two
of eboks fault blocks.
An expanded project would
involve drilling at least eight more
development wells and increasing
production to between 35,000 and
50,000 bpd by the end of 2010.
Afren recently completed the
ebok-4 appraisal well and,
according to reservoir specialist
Netherland, sewell & Associates
(NsA), the field could hold likely
in-place reserves of 148 million
barrels in the two fault blocks.
Recoverable reserves are estimated
to be just over 41 million
barrels.
An additional 21 million barrels
of contingent reserves and 33 million
barrels of prospective
resources have been assigned by
NsA to other areas of the field,
including the ebok West and
ebok North fault blocks.
Afrens view is that the first two
fault blocks to be exploited hold
178 million barrels of in-place
crude and 52 million barrels of
recoverable reserves.
the ebok-4 well flowed 1450
bpd of 20 to 25 degrees API oil but
the operator believes a rate of
about 3500 bpd per well could be
achieved.
Due to these better-thanexpected
results, Afren has decided
to drill the ebok-5 appraisal
well as part of the shallow-water
fields development drilling programme.
shahenshah said a development
plan will be submitted to
Abuja shortly.
ebok lies about 50 kilometres
offshore in OML 67 where Afren
holds a 40% stake, leaving Oriental
with 60%.