Results out soon in August.

Broker recos look very bullish and why not on a P/E of just over 6 to 2011.....

Thomas Cook Group PLC

FORECASTS 2010 2011
Date Rec Pre-tax (�) EPS (p) DPS (p) Pre-tax (�) EPS (p) DPS (p)

Panmure Gordon
02-08-10 BUY 319.00 27.10 11.30 338.00 28.70 12.40

Exane BNP Paribas
02-08-10 BUY 116.00 26.62 10.75 319.00 28.87 11.66

Numis Securities Ltd
02-08-10 ADD 324.20 27.60 11.25 357.10 29.90 11.81

Oriel Securities
02-08-10 BUY 330.40 28.40 11.40 363.50 31.30 12.10

KBC Peel Hunt Ltd
30-07-10 BUY 301.06 25.22 10.75 313.36 26.23 10.93

WestLB
30-07-10 SELL 28.81 11.52 29.91 11.96

Shore Capital
30-07-10 HOLD 312.00 26.50 11.80 347.00 29.50 13.00

Charles Stanley Securities
15-06-10 HOLD

Evolution Securities Ltd
11-02-10 None

Investec Securities [R]
09-02-10 BUY 327.00 27.30 11.74 352.23 29.39 12.49

Fyshe Horton Finney Ltd
25-01-10 BUY

Collins Stewart
24-12-09 BUY

Nomura Research Institute
25-09-09 RED

2010 2011
Pre-tax (�) EPS (p) DPS (p) Pre-tax (�) EPS (p) DPS (p)

Consensus 316.42 26.98 11.36 342.50 29.39 11.96

1 Month Change 1.07 -0.22 0.01 3.43 -0.14 -0.14
3 Month Change -11.92 -1.09 -0.05 -11.79 -1.00 -0.44


GROWTH
2009 (A) 2010 (E) 2011 (E)

Norm. EPS 2.76% 0.38% 8.92%
DPS 14.03% 10.80% 5.26%

INVESTMENT RATIOS
2009 (A) 2010 (E) 2011 (E)

EBITDA �574.90m �589.69m �613.90m
EBIT �372.50m �420.55m �447.05m
Dividend Yield 5.38% 5.96% 6.27%
Dividend Cover 2.62x 2.38x 2.46x
PER 7.10x 7.07x 6.49x
PEG 2.57f 18.55f 0.73f
Net Asset Value PS -240.80p 224.47p 240.43p

Down 7.25p on Friday, up 7.25p today - glad I didn't panic and sell on Friday, but that is easy to say in hindsight. I wonder what games the mm's will play tomorrow.

Expectation is very high among posters on other bulletin boards regarding the statement tomorrow. I seem to remember the last statement was positive and the market reaction was so,so until an RNS later in the morning announced all the Director buys and then the share price took off.

So maybe a small short then :-)

perhaps short with a tight stop.

skinny, I don't ever short shares - I just can't get my head around it! Trying to be objective here and I'm just wondering if the news is already factored into the current price. TT. going well today and still seem to have the upper hand in the travel market.

I sold out after the jobs news, having done pretty well.

I think tomorrow is a flip of a coin - good luck.

NEW GROWTH STRATEGY AND UPDATED PROFIT IMPROVEMENT PLANS

Financial Highlights

· Business Transformation gaining momentum. A further £50m of cost-out actions identified bringing the total profit improvement actions so far to £350m with more to come.

· Significant progress achieved in embedding improved working capital management practices contributing to c£150m improvement in average working capital.

· UK Turnaround on track; thorough UK restructuring underway to re-shape the organisation to meet customer need with a target to deliver UK EBIT margin in excess of 5% by FY15.

· Northern and Central Europe continue to build on their industry leading positions.

· Executing on one Group-wide Airline Segment, improving costs, quality, reliability and customer experience to build a stronger business.

· Transformed approach to hotel purchasing to utilise Group scale, already delivering tangible benefits.

· Non-core disposal programme underway with the opportunity to realise gross proceeds of £100- £150m.



Strategic Highlights

· A Strategy of simplification, focused on delivering trusted, personalised holiday experiences delivered through a high-tech, high-touch approach.

· New strategy has been based upon extensive research and analysis including a comprehensive, in-depth survey measuring the attitudes and changing needs of almost 18,000 travellers, validated against the experiences of many of Thomas Cook's own customers.

· Clear metrics developed to measure and report on progress, with the following measures established:

FY15 Targets

o New product revenue > £500m

o Increase Group web penetration to > 50%

o Cost Out/profit improvement of £350m

FY15 KPI's

o Sales increasing at CAGR > 3.5%

o Underlying Gross margin improvement >1.5%

o UK EBIT margin >5%

o Cash Conversion of >60%



· The strategy will deliver on-going product and service innovation through four major initiatives:

o Expand our successful, proven international hotel concepts across our markets

o Creating a new portfolio of flexible, trusted, products and services

o Creating a single, consistent, omni-channel gateway for customers to access personal recommendations from our extensive range of products and services

o All underpinned by the powerful Thomas Cook brand and an integrated IT platform

those who are short might have preferred to have been burnt at the stake!

cynic swiftly taken out by g'teed stop!

Small short @101 - in the hope of profit taking.

good profit though, even if you were stopped out at nearer 98 than 104

Presumably you chartist guys now hoping the next gap up will be filled?

Funny mentals to consider now - (fund raising).

well done to all holders.

Yep well done to those who stayed in.

I think the fund raising issue has been put on the back burner for now, skinny. I need to read through the statement again, but I can't remember seeing any mention of one in the immediate future.

Amazing -

Panmure Gordon Sell 95.38 87.00 13.00 13.00 Reiterates

Shore Capital Buy 95.38 87.00 - - Retains

Numis Hold 95.38 87.00 70.00 90.00 Retains

Investec Buy 95.38 87.00 120.00 120.00 Retains

Oriel Securities Buy 95.38 87.00 - - Retains

but the clear implication is that at the present price, it's fully valued and more

Thomas Cook to hit 200p - analyst

By Darshini Shah | Wed, 13/03/2013 - 10:36


Shares in Thomas Cook Group (TCG) jumped 15% on Wednesday morning as it unveiled its new growth strategy and updated profit improvement plans.

The tour operator's strategy was revealed to be broadly based on four key targets: the expansion of in-house hotel brands and concepts; product and service innovation focusing on key areas of growth, such as winter sun; driving sales online; and investment in strong underlying brands.

Thomas Cook has identified a further £50 million of cost savings, with more to come, to generate cost out/profit improvement of around £350 million in 2015. Other tangible improvements include a c. £150 million increase in average working capital and a non-core disposal programme of between £100 million and £150 million of gross proceeds.

The group is also targeting a 5% EBIT margin in its UK business by 2015, implying £150 million of EBIT, compared to £1 million in 2012. Other targets for the 2015 financial year include new product revenue of more than £500 million, web penetration higher than 50%, a compound average growth rate of 3.5% for sales, underlying gross margin improvement greater than 1.5% and cash conversion higher than 60%.

Operationally, trading was reported to be robust, as summer trading progressed well with improved margins. The 2013 outlook was said to be "encouraging".

Analysts applaud targets

"Clear targets given to [the] market, which [the] company will now be measured on," cautioned Mike van Dulken, head of research at Accendo Markets, while James Hollins, analyst at Investec, stated the goals would "support both returns and an improving capital structure".

Hollins rated the stock a 'buy' with a 120p price target.

Share price to reach 200p?

"Announcements of this nature are always good news for shareholders with share prices benefiting from the prospect of better margins boosting profits growth and thus potentially dividends, and brokers likely upgrading consensus forecasts, ratings and target prices which can help with capital appreciation," commented van Dulken, predicting the share price would likely return to the 2009/10 levels of 200p.

He added: "Share test of 100p level [on Wednesday] is significant having left prior support at 170p behind in early 2011 in the wake of the Arab Spring which saw cancellations to North African destinations resulting in a profits warning just months later."

Potential equity issue

While Thomas Cook did not give an update on a potential equity issue or refinancing, Simon French, analyst at Panmure Gordon, pointed out that Sky News on Tuesday reported the group was planning to raise over £400 million via a placing in the next few weeks as part of a wider refinancing.

"The shares have rallied hard into this update and a capital raise of c. £400 million would be highly dilutive and make the current 2013 price/earnings ratio of 15.3 times look even more stretched," he stressed.

He reiterated his 'sell' recommendation and 13p price target.