Thread designed to record set-ups and targets on index and FX pairs.
'A market is only your enemy until you understand it, then it becomes your best friend.'








Any questions, please feel free to ask.

From time to time i may openly state an opinion regarding direction of a set-up and wish to add that in no way am i recommending a trade. I am sometimes only in trades for a matter of minutes and can't always update as to entry/exits taken.
As always, markets are dangerous places to be and must be respected as such. Always use stop losses and never over-leverage; 3% of your pot as a maximum per trade. As always, YOU are responsible for your own trades! Happy pip hunting!

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Something was bugging me earlier. The GbpJpy usually correlates to the markets and as my charts suggest, i reckon there is a good blast north around the corner. However, i have also posted i expect the markets to tank shortly. Well, its possible we will have a couple more days or so yet and end up with an irregular correction on the Dow, ('B' wave making a fresh high), with 'C' a slightly LL and probably a flat for the £/yen. All three that i watch correlate closely together with this particular count which involves the Dax and the Dow reaching a 1.62 fib extension of their 'a' of the 'B' wave.

Here's all three charts;

(as prev posted), £/yen;



the Dow plan;



and the Dax;



all three give us probably into the middle of the week for more gains before a major turn, with the £/yen in particular looking good for some great gains. Well, its only analysis at this stage, but at least with a plan i can now look on smaller timescales to see if it works out and of course trade it accordingly.

Chris, i reckon you stand a very good chance of winning the M&S vouchers this month mate!

Well it would be a first Davai, I'll believe it when I see it mate :O)
As regards Monday never mind next month I haven't got a clue where the indeces are going. To be honest just wish it would stop bloody raining so I could play some golf. Good luck with your trading.

Just got a feeling it might add 30 odd points on Monday, but lets see! Have a good weekend!

So, bit surprised by todays moves, still biased for upside soon and am wondering if its looking for the 1.62% level of 'a' for the target. Decisive break of this and its a completely different count entirely, with another fib level at 12890 being the 61.8% retrace of the recent move up. As it is, its just back to how i envisaged it last week;



last week;

So, the alternative count. Although i would even consider this a more natural looking corrective move, (retracing 50/61.8% of wave 1) for wave 2, i struggle to accept the final part ('c') of the 'B' wave being the recent 'abcde' expanding triangle move, (although it is in 5 waves). It also appears massively out of symmetry. So i will try to see if its possible/likely,

Ok so reminder of the chart in post 69;



Now i can show a reversal which is ongoing from this fib level;

So, now in closer detail;

The reversal was easy to spot. Three 15min candles with a bit of impetus and on closer inspection gave me a fast 5wave impulse move, the pullbacks of each being so minor, it was clearly showing the way, (these i have listed as (i) through to (v) of '1'). Then follows another clear abc corrective move, before climbing up to trigger the set-up long on a break of point (v). Reading it as a 123 reversal; this is point 2. Stop is a pip below point 3. the ISM data did the rest;

Looking at the above again, but this time concentrating on the Fibonacci retracement levels, you will see how accurate they can be for expected reversal points. I have circled the more important ones in orange;

So you've realised that the £/Yen is my favourite pair for trading right now.
This may be repetitive from yesterday, but the count became clear from the overnight action, so i want to post the relevant charts and updates;

Expected reversal point from Mondays action;



update;



Updated update (with overnight action);



and in closer detail with the wave counts etc;



That is surely proof to any doubters that charts and Elliott wave do work!

Current thinking;

Arguments for long/short;

Could be a great set-up in progress. This is what i'm watching;

Next push for the markets imminent???



Better post this one on here as well i guess. Possibile alternative play on the Dax with a triangle in play. This shows far less upside before the drop;

Back to post 39;

Davai - 20 Apr 2012 21:34 - 31 of 78 edit this post

Poss daily count, Euro;



Update;



It all looks as though we are heading for some possible Euro strength soon.

This might explain why yesterdays pullback looked like it was in 3 (abc);

Confirmation of count;

Interesting to note this;

(from last night's analysis);

'Better post this one on here as well i guess. Possibile alternative play on the Dax with a triangle in play. This shows far less upside before the drop;'



Indeed, the 'E' wave was very short underlining the weakness of the markets today. Similar happened on the Euro, with a very short 'C' wave before the drop...

Fib levels of 'A' reproduced onto top of 'B'. Confluence is easy to spot;

Unfortunately, looks like more downside next week for index's (and thus strength for dollar). Getting close to some great long entries on a few pairs. The Loonie looks like it wants up from here...