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mg - for you from FXCM

FX USD/JPY

The US dollar faltered against most of the majors on Friday amidst the release of softer-than-expected core CPI, however, USDJPY continued to prosper after the Bank of Japan left rates on hold and signaled a more extended pause on monetary policy action. In fact, the pair has been reaching new 4 year highs as the carry trade remains the preferred position of the markets. While a break of 124.00 almost appears unavoidable, the release of the NAHB housing market index could slow the ascent. The figure is anticipated to hold steady, but there is substantial risk of a decline given the widespread weakness throughout the sector. A major disappoint could lead USDJPY down towards the 123.00 level, but it would take a major event (very hawkish BOJ commentary, Chinese trade/yuan news) to take it much further. On the other hand, a steady NAHB reading or an improvement would support further gains for the pair to the 124.00 level.

Thanks SC
Preparing for big sulk and withdrawl from positions. As suggested 124 seems unavoidable :(

Anyone still trading Cable out there...looking for 1.9850 here with possible extension to 1.9900

foale
Have finally bitten the bullet on YEN - for about net -50. Agree that cable looking good for 1.9850 - no position whilst I lick my wounds :(

Well nothing like a +50 on cable to ease the pain elsewhere...

Good luck anyway..

mg

You might have been a little early on your Yen exit; although agreeing that 124 is inevitable, the pair has looked overbought for quite a few trading days yet, the MACD 1hr has crossed down, the 2hr is in the process of doing so and the 4hr is on the turn. May all be false signals of course, but perhaps a retracement is in order before the next push?

pth

Pete
Yeah, dontcha just hate it when that happens. I've been watching the MACD on 60,120 and 240 but they haven't helped so far so thought I'd throw in the towel - just as easily spike to 124 and the MACD still cope ..... before maybe behaving themselves :(

I don't happen to think that a simple ma crossover of the macd is the most reliable of signals, meggers. It's position in relation to the zero line is more important, imo.

Plus, I don't see any great reason to buy the Jappy at a time when the greenback is in an uptrend as there's fcuk all carry.

Fair comment Hils - don't seem to think straight where the Jappy is concerned - am watching 'cos I want those points back and it would give me great pleasure to get them from the in-screw-tables.

Having said all that, there seem to be those out there who have been forcing the moves - highest in 4 1/2 years etc.......

Went short again @ 12345.6 - silly but I'm in that kinda mood. Next short set @ 12332.1 ...... going for the numerologist's approach to technical analysis :)

Like your style ;)

Cable 1.9820-40 ...staging post or destination ?

still holding for min.. 1.9855-60 or even 1.9910
get down $$$$$...

might need some MPC memmber sayinf another 1/4% next month highly likely

Hi all, Was finca sitting for a friend last week and had internet problems! Lovely spot in the hills. Just put a small short on usd/yen, will exit if i think i'm premature(as I was with my usd/chf last week)

Hilary

I was not suggesting that any one particular aspect of an indicator should be regarded as a buy or sell signal, merely mentioning the progress of the MACD and that when taken in context with the other over-bought indicators a drop might be due, which is in fact what happened; although I admit the Yen was starting to fall as I posted!

Goforit

I have a positive genius for opening positions entirely at the wrong time and normally entirely in the wrong direction, however, added to a short Yen position prior to your post. Please don't take any comfort from this fact ;)

pth

I can't, for the life of me, work out why you guys don't just go with the trend instead of continually trying to pick tops and bottoms. USD/JPY turned back up again at 2pm and it's just made a fresh high, so why short it??????????

I probably sound condescending, but I'm only trying to help.

pth - your not the only one! Just saw the divergent spike on the four hourly and there seems to be divergence in most time frames. was watching this pair on friday with interest.

Hilary,

You generally do sound condescending, but I'm equally sure you are trying to help. There is more than one way to skin a cat, your preferred trading style appears to be to identify a trend and stick with it, I prefer to trade it both ways which entails picking tops and bottoms, perhaps one day I will get the hang of it.

pth

pth,

I've just got some simple rules that I stick to religiously.

When I abide by the rules, I make money (not every time - I hate whipsaws); When I try to think (ie pre-empt moves before they happen), I invariably lose money. To counteract the risk of losing money, I no longer bother trying to think and just say and do it it as I see it.

Hilary

I am learning not to pre-empt moves (although some way to go). I use trend lines, whether support or resistance and attempt to judge in conjunction with indicators whether the price will fail or suceed at a particular point. The short opened at 71 this afternoon was taken following a second failure to penetrate rising resistance, in conjucntion with a turning 10 min MACD and of course the much longer time frame picture (1,2 & 4 hr indicators) which continue to display considerable 'over-boughtness', although with room yet for more upside. On this ocassion the trade could have been closed for +7 and although not a huge amount of pips, the profit is clearly dependant on the size of the bet. To be honest, larger bets on smaller moves suit my erratic trading style much better than the longer term moves, although I wish I could develop the patience to adapt!!

pth