.

Hey....I was nowhere near so loud as I have been promoting FOGL for some time now....I said Borders was a punt...it was.....the big difference is that I'm heavily invested in Falklands Oil and Gas !....I just think that oil will be found sooner or later here......the crazy thing is that I would almost prefer them to drill Scotia or Nimrod first before Loligo but this is the well they have chosen and it does look like there is something there....gas perhaps but oil might be present below the first targets,.....it's a risk for small investors like ourselves but then....the stockmarket is risky...if it comes right : you have earned it by jove !.....ooopppsss...perhaps Cinners rants were for Prosels....

RF - those who have no holding are always the loudest against the stock and the first to shout that people are ramping.

They normally try to hide this by saying "I have some FOGL".......... but they do not you can be sure of that.

Many people are waiting for the first rumours from the rig, or the first RNS of a discovery and then they will buy in.

Until then they will be saying bad things about the chances, saying they hold "some" (which they do not) and calling everyone positive who is holding a ramper.

They claim to have "some" so that if the news is good nobody can call them a fool for missing out on the big rise - and of course if its bad news they will claim the "some" was really just a couple of shares as it was all just a punt.

This is normal for life on the bulletin boards..................

you really do protest too much ..... as with far too many of your posts, the latest is based on pure supposition ...... further, what may be a modest number for some will be significant for another, and vice versa

much more to the point, though i still hold "some", i have no inferiority complex that demands that i put on a macho front by being desperate to claim that i even want to be in at basements levels, let alone with what i would call lunatic numbers .... indeed, those levels far too often prove to be a rotten ice-bridge over an abyss

I hardly buy or sell at all now.......such a bad market.....I probably have too much invested in this one company but you have to admit that the upside could be huge Cynic......

WTFC! ...... now pay as much attention to the downside ..... you'll soon be throwing money at RRR, RRL and the ilk with the same loony logic

It's a notion of risk......and there is another well coming up after Loligo....

Upside downside.
Yes of course there are both, but the only one thing that we should be looking at as investors or potential investors is this.
Is the upside looking better than any downside
If yes, invest.
If no don't.

Whilst I appreciate the above is obvious, I state it because we can go over and over the pro's/cons re Fogl, but we have to accept that what looks attractive to some does not look so to others, (wife should have gone to specsavers).

I think we have discussed, such pros/cons in depth now, and the only thing that will prove who is right or wrong will be the drill results.

I am invested and have just increased my holding, so to me the gamble is worthwhile, and yes it is a gamble.

"Is the upside looking better than any downside
If yes, invest.
If no don't."

The downside is always greater than the upside, hence the c20% or less chance of hitting oil with most wells.

Hi Harrycat,

Fully agree, thats why I look at the odds, like any 'bet'.

I am betting that the odds of the upside will make it a worthwhile gamble, with a good result at least tripling my money.
I have also limited my investment to what I can afford to loose.

Anyone better their house or pension on this, is to my mind taking a ridiculous risk.

He who dares, does not always win!

greek - i bet you haven't invested a large slab of your portfolio in this spiv stock though, and to my mind, that is the prudent approach even for those who are not intrinsically risk averse

No I haven't, but I don't class any stock that has Fogls potential as a 'spiv' stock.

SPIV.........
1 One usually unemployed, who lives by one's wits.
2 One who shirks work or responsibility; a slacker.

Not FOGL!

must be me i was talking about :-)

When investing in exploration stocks you have to look on it as very risky and to only invest money you're prepared to lose, but you have also to look at the upside as well as the downside, ie if Loligo is a duster(what all 5 levels?) then expect the s/p to fall by between 45-55%, but if its a commercial success on the majority of levels then a 200-300%+ is more then a posibility, so i believe its well worth the risk, timing is also important...

MONEYTALKS - 26 Jul 2012 13:00 - 102 of 102

Sandown
3.05 Savanna La Mar
Good luck all.

Thanks to Moneytalks for the tip.
Put your money on this nag, better chance of winning than Fogl finding commercial quantities of oil!

Put your money on this nag, better chance of winning than Fogl finding commercial quantities of oil!

Depends on the odds for both!

No it doesn't, chance of success odds for these drills are based on nothing but some geologist's opinion. As you've seen with BOR for example they're never accurate in the same way as something where true odds can be calculated.

Well did it win?.

Came in Second to mine (Roz @28/1)

With Roger (33/1) a length behind.

There you go then, an each way bet brings home the money, more than can be said for the FI oilies, excepting RKH of course, which kind of defeats my argument :)