.

WTFC! ...... now pay as much attention to the downside ..... you'll soon be throwing money at RRR, RRL and the ilk with the same loony logic

It's a notion of risk......and there is another well coming up after Loligo....

Upside downside.
Yes of course there are both, but the only one thing that we should be looking at as investors or potential investors is this.
Is the upside looking better than any downside
If yes, invest.
If no don't.

Whilst I appreciate the above is obvious, I state it because we can go over and over the pro's/cons re Fogl, but we have to accept that what looks attractive to some does not look so to others, (wife should have gone to specsavers).

I think we have discussed, such pros/cons in depth now, and the only thing that will prove who is right or wrong will be the drill results.

I am invested and have just increased my holding, so to me the gamble is worthwhile, and yes it is a gamble.

"Is the upside looking better than any downside
If yes, invest.
If no don't."

The downside is always greater than the upside, hence the c20% or less chance of hitting oil with most wells.

Hi Harrycat,

Fully agree, thats why I look at the odds, like any 'bet'.

I am betting that the odds of the upside will make it a worthwhile gamble, with a good result at least tripling my money.
I have also limited my investment to what I can afford to loose.

Anyone better their house or pension on this, is to my mind taking a ridiculous risk.

He who dares, does not always win!

greek - i bet you haven't invested a large slab of your portfolio in this spiv stock though, and to my mind, that is the prudent approach even for those who are not intrinsically risk averse

No I haven't, but I don't class any stock that has Fogls potential as a 'spiv' stock.

SPIV.........
1 One usually unemployed, who lives by one's wits.
2 One who shirks work or responsibility; a slacker.

Not FOGL!

must be me i was talking about :-)

When investing in exploration stocks you have to look on it as very risky and to only invest money you're prepared to lose, but you have also to look at the upside as well as the downside, ie if Loligo is a duster(what all 5 levels?) then expect the s/p to fall by between 45-55%, but if its a commercial success on the majority of levels then a 200-300%+ is more then a posibility, so i believe its well worth the risk, timing is also important...

MONEYTALKS - 26 Jul 2012 13:00 - 102 of 102

Sandown
3.05 Savanna La Mar
Good luck all.

Thanks to Moneytalks for the tip.
Put your money on this nag, better chance of winning than Fogl finding commercial quantities of oil!

Put your money on this nag, better chance of winning than Fogl finding commercial quantities of oil!

Depends on the odds for both!

No it doesn't, chance of success odds for these drills are based on nothing but some geologist's opinion. As you've seen with BOR for example they're never accurate in the same way as something where true odds can be calculated.

Well did it win?.

Came in Second to mine (Roz @28/1)

With Roger (33/1) a length behind.

There you go then, an each way bet brings home the money, more than can be said for the FI oilies, excepting RKH of course, which kind of defeats my argument :)

horses and true odds and bookies do not cohabit

So not much good then, will stick with what i'm doing, you can keep your horses.

You stick with losing money old bean, I'll stick with making it. Hope your luck changes with the next drill.

Instead of comparing this stock to gambling (how stupid is that?) How about you wish those with money in FOGL some luck? Why do I feel like the select few are just circling like sharks, waiting to strike if Lolligo is a duster...this is simply one variation of trolling with all this negative posting and 'de-ramping' and i think alot of people need to grow up.