.

LOL - you are funny :)

Which all goes to show that f**k all of any meaningful sort is happening re this share and it would be best to put this thread (and Mrs P as she surely is) into hibernation until nearer the results of a drill (probably sometime close to Christmas).

Considering the upper targets at Loligo are most likely gas, and the lower ones probably oil - here is the result I am hoping for from the 5 targets to be drilled at Loligo.


T1 = 9 TCF recoverable gas on a P50 basis.

T1 Deep = 3.8 TCF recoverable gas on a P50 basis.

Trigg and Trigg Deep is 969 million recoverable barrels of oil - P50.

Three Bears = 1588 million recoverable barrels of oil - P50.

This gives a 4.7 bboe figure in total (4.7 billion barrels of oil equivalent, if you convert the gas to boe and add on to the oil barrels).


That result would give 12.8 TCF recoverable (well over the 5TCF recoverable minimum for economic development in the South Falklands and also well over the 10TCF level at which development becomes very attractive for gas).

On top of that for short term there would be circa 2.5 billion barrels of oil for quick development.

I'm hoping for one trillion recoverable barrels of oil - P10 (from my back garden).

Where on earth do you dream up these ridiculous figures? You're not right in the head! Lol

They are the official company estimates for Loligo reservoirs.

Try reading the Edison note - 4.7 billion recoverable barrels of oil equivalent (4.7bboe) for Loligo as P50.

http://www.edisoninvestmentresearch.co.uk/search/Falkland%20Oil%20&%20Gas

The only ridiculous thing around here is people trying to say its not true............

http://www.fox-davies.com/media/35357/sfbupdate160712.pdf

Fox Davies

He lives in a little fantasy world of his own chuckles,all he does is cut and paste the same carp on every B&B

The only thing in the SFB found is some gas and a ruddy big coal mine in the middle of no where.

Back down me mine to feed the pit ponies

P50 = 50% chance of finding anything - they think ....... if they get the right bit of "i think" then it'll be case of just how much of anything have they found ...... and i see prostate is back on the (baby)oil tack once more

Cynic, Marky... what if they strike lucky.....ok Prosels ramps a bit but you have to admit that there is a big chance of them hitting something commercial based on the firm's seismics.....five targets in one well is not to be sneezed at !...he does put some good stuff on here, perhaps too repeatable....but let's give him credit.....he's a good blogger (never know whether you put one g or two for the spelling) to have around...

Prolific blogger, rf, not necessarilya good blogger! But can't fault the enthusiasm.
Am happy to hold FOGL and will trade in & out when the drilling starts! The P? figure is just wishful thinking, imo and is only (semi) useful to long term holders.

Big chance of them hitting some thing RF......not at 15% chance of success it aint.

Very misleading cynic.

P50 means its the median estimate for the size of any discovery - should a discovery be made. It has nothing to do with the chances of finding gas or oil.


cynic - 29 Jul 2012 17:40 - 1081 of 1084
P50 = 50% chance of finding anything - they think

Its a sign.............. 4 targets good and 1 bad from the Loligo 5

http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/olympics/18907147

.

Rig is now underway, moved about 50km over night in the direction of Loligo.


http://www.marinetraffic.com/ais/default.aspx?mmsi=308243000&centerx=-58.13182&centery=-53.6912&zoom=10&type_color=9


The fun now begins for FOGL..............

i'm moe than happy to be corrected or are you just moving words about?

P50 means its the median estimate for the size of any discovery - should a discovery be made. Now thats a statement for splitting hairs!!

I prefer Cynic's 50% chance as its more realistic that anything will be found at all. No point thinking about this is terms of estimated size of 'find' when 'find' has yet to be 'found'...

Pro is right, there is a difference between the probability of finding (the CoS), and the estimated amount of oil (a volume somewhere between the P10 and P90 values).

ie. with poor sesmic and no field history, you might think there's a small chance (low CoS) of finding a certain quantity of oil (a P10-P90 range of possible volume), but with good sesmic and an established oil field, another well might target the same P10-P90 range, but the CoS would be much higher.

But putting it another way..
you could look at any well as a black/white 50-50 split...
either it's commercial, or it's not.

Pro is right to the text book, I didn't think Cynic was being 'very misleading' in his earlier post but more technically incorrect. All the same Pro's posts highlight the chances of the size of discovery when I think the chances of finding anything at all is more relevant. This is an unchartered field, no history and you can argue the quality of data. Probability estimates are better suited to established fields with history and I think are misleading when used against new drills on unchartered fields.

2010 was a good year for year end AIM stocks rally. 2011 was a bad year. Hoping 2012 is another August to April AIM stocks rally on lots of ECB and US Fed stimulus. They have talked the bad stuff, now its time to talk everything up again.

If 2012 follows 2010 and an August 12 to April 13 rally, it will be good.

Below is the FTSE AIM for 2010/11 and 12 so far, looking like a repeat of 2010 imo so far. Its on the support line of 2010 and 2011 - should be primed now for a surge upwards into year end.



.

and to clarify further .... using my "meaning", P90 = bugger all chance of finding anything, whereas as P10 is what should prick up the ears - rather than prick up the arse with P90 ..... i guess that makes P50 little more than flaccid - i.e. of fuck all interest!

So cynic you won't be bothering to invest in FOGL then?..