.

i don't, but my guess has far shorter odds than yours!

I would, as I have said before, be very happy to see the S2 fan (some 40+ sq km in size) with net pay and be a new discovery.

If Sea Lion S1 P10 is not good but S2 comes in, then this to me is very good news.

A brand new discovery, a new deeper system and one that is nearly as big as the S1 fan.

I would take S2 good news :)

Bought a few more.....still think that a rebound above today's price will happen regardless of a negative result...

Alphaville comments from the "sector watcher":

http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2011/02/10/484906/markets-live/

...............No news yet on RKHs big step-out appraisal well currently drilling on the Sea Lion discovery, although the market appears to have taken the view that the well will not succeed. The shares fell a further 8% to 339p yesterday, making a 12% fall since Monday. Not entirely sure why the market has taken this view, given that it cannot possibly know how the well is progressing, and is still 11 days away from its predicted completion date.

As a bulletin board favourite the group is used to volatile moves in its price, which probably explains some of the movement, but I also sense a slight shift away from the exploration stocks by institutional investors. Sentiment has not been helped in recent days by perceived negative drilling results from HOIL, GPX, COV and NPE/PMO/EO, and an ambiguous one from BLVN.

However Id caution against being overly negative on RKH at these levels the current well has the potential to make a material difference to valuation, which is already well underpinned by the Sea Lion discovery. Our current NAV for RKH is 494p/share assuming an oil price of $70/barrel long-term, whilst this rises to around 630p/share if we assume $85/barrel. This is based on P50 reserves of 170m barrels from Sea Lion, whilst the P10 case is a mammoth 670m barrels with success at the current well potentially going some way to proving this up. Hold your nerve on RKH the risk/reward remains compelling.

alphaville of course being no more than a poster on a BB, so intrinsically knowing sweet FA - just like the rest of us!

cynic sp sinking towards 300p in the absence of positive news,if we have a duster then where to next?

i would not expect 300 to be breached other than on knee-jerk

With the downside being no more than a maximum of 50p...but upside of several pounds...no contest as to being in this share or not....with cfds and spreads, caution is needed....but this could be very rewarding with precious little markdown in the event of a hydrocarbon no show ....

Well, today is the end of the CMC Markets issues with AIM stocks and so, all focus next week moves back into buying the ones that are undervalued, and RKH is one of those.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/3544e9f0-3530-11e0-9810-00144feabdc0.html#ixzz1Db3a2bF7

10th Feb.

Rockhopper Exploration

eased 0.9 per cent to 336p, taking losses during the past week to almost 8.5 per cent. However, Canaccord Genuity said it was not sure why investors had turned bearish.

However wed caution against being overly negative on Rockhopper at these levels - the current well has the potential to make a material difference to valuation, which is already well underpinned by the Sea Lion discovery, is said.

And for those that think the FT Alpha Sector Watcher was wrong in saying this is an appraisal, it is in some ways, but lets be clear.

It is not an appraisal of the Sea Lion discovery area which is located in the S1 fan. The 170MMBO Sea Lion discovery is not being tested here at all. This drill is a massive 8km away.

It is not going to intersect the existing Sea Lion Lower fan at all, and will pass through the P10 area of S1 Sea Lion Main fan.


It is an appraisal of the Sea Lion structure, as it is penetrating the S2 fan which is new, and the S1Lower teardrop structure potential, which is new. It may also penetrate S3, S4 etc....

The Sea Lion structure is said to be "up to" 7 stacked fans, those being S1 Main, S1 Lower, S2, S3, S4, S5, S6

So in some ways this is appraising the structure, its certainly not appraising the existing S1 discovery, that is the next well.

So much information potentially to be found out on this exploration well it is no surprise at all that it is taking much longer to complete drilling and testing.

Whats the betting there will be a "bear raid" today ? A big push down to allow shorters to close out on the stop loss triggers and panic and then it rises and goes blue this afternoon ?

Remember what happened in the past......Place your bets please, will it happen again ?

pp sp nearly down to 200 DMA, will it bounce?

Charts mean nothing, this is all about drill results....... and if no news on dumping Friday then perhaps its wonderful news Monday ! :)

Who knows, certainly the market does not know.

And the result was a big raspberry.

Complex, but encouraging - there is a surprise. S2 updip interesting.

Off to appraise the Sea Lion discovery now then, jolly good.

There is oil there....we have one major commercial discovery.....I presume there will be more....

The big news is of course it appears we have found the same pressure gradient of the main sea lion, same here as the discovery area.

So the oil/water contact is in the P10 to P20 area.

I would settle with Sea Lion being the P30, or around 500MMBO of oil recoverable :) !!

I am buying more RKH now ! :)

This is a great chance to buy....350p here we come during the next well or thereabouts....

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