.

It shows that short term traders/day traders are controlling the price, as the RKH and GKP charts for the short term are nearly the same.

Volume very low again today, not even 750K by lunch time.

Expectations anyone ?

Sea Lion Main Fan - some net pay but small amounts - will boost up the potential that an appraisal well slightly closer to Sea Lion 1 well yield good results and firm up the P50 figures.

Teardrop (Sea Lion Lower) - charged and with decent net pay.

S2 fans - new discovery, charged and with decent net pay - to be be appraised up dip

Lower potential fans under S2 - no idea at all, if they drill longer and deeper that the pre-drill estimated TD then I expect some will be charged and they will go as deep as possible wary of any HP gas.


And of course, it could all be done dry or full of Evian :)

The timing marker should be the S2 presentation being put up on the RKH website, I mean, no point loading it unless you have just been into it.

That would put depth at circa 2680M on 2nd Feb, if it were to be the case. There are possibly 4 more fans under that and so perhaps 3 to 4 days drilling IF they do not go deeper.

So possible that drilling will get to TD on Sunday or Monday and then wireline will be run.

So on that schedule and its all just opinion, then an RNS might be coming Wed or Thu next week, possibly Tue though depending on progress and actual depth at which drilling stops.

News might leak out......through supplies from Port Stanley......

Not at RKH. This is not DES.

L2 update. Basically the offer side is "noise" up to 373p. At 373p lies the seller happy to offload in volume.

A move past 373p bid with high volume is when you know the seller is clear, or something is afoot, as it stands now IMO.

Not even 750K volume by midday. Very low volume.

Chunky buy there (as sells as the seller sold into the buy orders)

Interesting, first signs of someone filling up a load.

Volume picked up, struggled to get to 1M and now nearly 50% again in a short time.

1st signs ?

Needs a few more waves of strong buying and price moving up to have a chance of being anything, otherwise its just someone getting a few in for the weekend and nothing more.

It was a sudden volume spike, if you like it was nearly 1 million shares in the last hour.

That would equate to over 8 million if on a full trading day and that is the kind of volume to be looking for for news coming.



.

I think we can summarize events as :

Nothing has leaked off of the rig. Nobody knows anything about the progress or targets.

Something on the logistic front was requested Friday afternoon and this has led to speculation the well will be suspended for flow tests later (as not allowed until after April).

Given that potential on the logistical front it has been assumed therefore that they have found something that may require testing.

However, one should note that the company will not make any decision until wireline is done.

There was a sudden volume spike on Friday late, with basically a million shares in an hour traded - that equates to over 8M on a full day should it have continued. Chart above.

I think many have hypothesized that as they have heard nothing then there is no news = bad news. I think that is very wrong as with the original Sea Lion drill nobody knew anything until the RNS was out (even though there were oil shows and stains during drilling it was totally kept secret - so RKH can keep a lid on everything). Even now the rumours are only due to suggested logistics requests - something that cannot be controlled.

Good luck all, and for sure do not buy or sell on the say so of some anonymous poster on a BB.

Interesting week ahead !

Post from Garbled at 13:30 on III


"........I swear on my life....the 7" has been shipped to the rig and I have no idea at the moment if it's still on the boat or the rig........"


.

Sea Lion 1

Exploration well was spudded at 00:50hrs BST on 16 April 2010

Depth 2744 metres / RNS states 34 days drill time.

http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201004160700152962K


12:000 hours 6th May wireline/logging suites done and declared a discovery.

20.5 days to drill to 2744 metres and run wireline/logging and declare.


-------------

Exploration well (current)

Spudded 17:00 hours on 13th Jan 2011.

Depth circa 3000 metres / RNS states 38 days drill time.

http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201101140700054605Z


So far 23.5 days.

Pending how drilling and coring operations went, how many times they cored, timing could have been correct for an initial wireline run on Friday with a strike confirmed on Saturday.



Each to their own - I am not holding out any hope of a good find until the RNS comes out and says so in no uncertain terms - this is exploration and the chance of failure is very high. The next well is appraisal, not this one.

So expect failure and let any success be a wonderful surprise, thats the way I look at it.

An alternate theory on timing may be that :

They are down to say circa 2800M and have had shows in the S2 fan, confirmed by running wireline. Decision made to flow test S2 fans later on in April/May hence the need to suspend the well.

However, they also wish to test the deeper fans now that the deeper and older S2 fan has been shown to be charged and with net pay.

Decision made to run casing down to protect the well bore and then continue on to a new depth of 3xxx meters.

That would allow an interim update (as they are not at TD yet) to come out informing us of events and that they will soon be drilling ahead but for sure will be suspending the well for future flow test of S2 fan in April/May.

That would be able to link in with rumours of "going deeper" as I could only see them going deeper if the S2 fan was charged and with net pay. That would give them confidence that the deeper fans under S2 might also be charged and be viable.

Anyway, there, a bit of fantasy speculation for Sunday.....

And you have probably guessed, I want the S2 fan to be a hit with net pay.

That brings in a new oil discovery not associated with Sea Lion Main/Lower fans and as S2 is being drilled downdip, it likely means a lot of oil updip over that 45 sq km that is S2.

Ahead of any news from RKH on the S2 fan its worth noting.

The Sea Lion area may have up to 7 stacked fans, these being :

S1 Main (otherwise known as Sea Lion Main)
S1 Lower (otherwise known as Sea Lion Lower)

These are the only two drilled (with and RNS result) so far.

However there is also ;

S2
S3
S4
S5
S6

This ongoing drill will penetrate S2 and depending where TD is it might penetrate a couple of others.

S2 is not small, its 45 sq km in size and could be rather large if its thick. S2 is older than Sea Lion Main/Lower (S1) fans.

At this juncture I would also note something else. Sea Lion type plays can only be "seen" with 3D seismic.

Argos (ARG) have yet to do 3D and so their prospect list is rather small as its limited only to play types defined by 2D.


However, and this is where it gets exciting. Argos have "Lead 1" and "Lead 2" which are going to be covered by the new seismic. These appear to mirror S1 and S2 fans on the RKH side, BUT, they are bigger than the RKH side ones.

It may be that the high in the middle otherwise known as the Johnson gas cap, sorry, gas discovery might sites central to large pools of oil either side, with RKH S1/S2 fans and on the opposite side there is Argos Lead 1 and Lead 2 fans. Hence why I have been buying rather a few ARG of late to add to my RKH holdings.

The 3D results in Q3 from Argos are going to be very keenly observed by many, thats for sure.

No idea why people are buying DES today....... madness.

If you must buy another buy ARG and retain increasing RKH but DES.... ?? Pure madness.

Thought I would have a look at online trading limits.

Max Buy 5K @ 385p

Max Sell 10K @ 384.63p


All last week you could buy 50K and sell 5K, now you can buy max 5K and sell 10K.


Stock is in demand.