.

i'm moe than happy to be corrected or are you just moving words about?

P50 means its the median estimate for the size of any discovery - should a discovery be made. Now thats a statement for splitting hairs!!

I prefer Cynic's 50% chance as its more realistic that anything will be found at all. No point thinking about this is terms of estimated size of 'find' when 'find' has yet to be 'found'...

Pro is right, there is a difference between the probability of finding (the CoS), and the estimated amount of oil (a volume somewhere between the P10 and P90 values).

ie. with poor sesmic and no field history, you might think there's a small chance (low CoS) of finding a certain quantity of oil (a P10-P90 range of possible volume), but with good sesmic and an established oil field, another well might target the same P10-P90 range, but the CoS would be much higher.

But putting it another way..
you could look at any well as a black/white 50-50 split...
either it's commercial, or it's not.

Pro is right to the text book, I didn't think Cynic was being 'very misleading' in his earlier post but more technically incorrect. All the same Pro's posts highlight the chances of the size of discovery when I think the chances of finding anything at all is more relevant. This is an unchartered field, no history and you can argue the quality of data. Probability estimates are better suited to established fields with history and I think are misleading when used against new drills on unchartered fields.

2010 was a good year for year end AIM stocks rally. 2011 was a bad year. Hoping 2012 is another August to April AIM stocks rally on lots of ECB and US Fed stimulus. They have talked the bad stuff, now its time to talk everything up again.

If 2012 follows 2010 and an August 12 to April 13 rally, it will be good.

Below is the FTSE AIM for 2010/11 and 12 so far, looking like a repeat of 2010 imo so far. Its on the support line of 2010 and 2011 - should be primed now for a surge upwards into year end.



.

and to clarify further .... using my "meaning", P90 = bugger all chance of finding anything, whereas as P10 is what should prick up the ears - rather than prick up the arse with P90 ..... i guess that makes P50 little more than flaccid - i.e. of fuck all interest!

So cynic you won't be bothering to invest in FOGL then?..

i hold a relatively modest number as i have frequently posted ..... i held about double that number a few weeks ago but concluded that it was not warranted ..... i used the basis that if the share went to zero, as BOR attempted, then the loss would be acceptable ...... if FOGL hit a bonanza, then i have a nice base from which to build

Rig is on its way at the moment, as of now, 3:50am 1st August the rig is circa 144 miles to the south-west of the Loligo drill site.

Slow going at the moment, could take another 40 hours or so to get the Loligo drill site based on current progress.

Interesting close yesterday and open today, we saw UT trades at higher than mid price.

Indicates potentially a buyer is now in the market and the seller is turning the tap off perhaps.

Might be a few strong blue days ahead now.

Or might not.

Proselenes:

Trivial question for you!

On the share Trade Streamer......What doe's O, AT and UT mean?

Seems to be more sells than buys.......Albeit, the FOGL share is starting to rise!

I was going to buy last evening, but bottled out........Should have bought?

In simple terms...........


An O trade is a manual trade, where you engage a broker to buy shares for you.

An AT trade is an Automatic Trade - so if you ask the broker to buy 20K stock for you, you might see a sudden rush of 5 AT trades for small amounts, and then your O trade for 20K.

This means the broker put into the system a buy for 20K, the stock was hoovered up and then sold to you at the price agreed. AT trades are run by computers based on the desires of orders from brokers/fundies etc...

UT are Uncrossing Trades - these happen during the opening and closing auctions and at auctions at any other time of the day. People can load buy and sell orders at auctions and the price of the trade at which the auction closes is reported as a UT trade along with the amount of stock agreed to be sold/bought at that price.

This is why UT trades at higher than mid price are a bullish sign, as it means there are more buyers than sellers at the auction - so the trend is therefore with the buyers and so if you see a stock have UT close and UT open at higher than mid price its a sign the stock might be going upwards.

Conversely if the UT trades are below mid price - its a sign there are more sellers than buyers.

Thank you very much for the explanation........Stops me scratching my head wondering what the letterings meant.

Still fascinates me when I identify more buys than sells.......Yet the price of the share goes down, and via versa?

Waiting for the FOGL share to pull back a little, then I will buy more........I have managed to average my share to £0.65 per share........Still working to get the average down further........Blinking hard work!

Gerponville18,

Proselenes gives a good, clear explanation, but if you want to know more re trades and codes, click on help at top right hand corner of this page and then go to the trades link.

regards Greek.

Looks like we are off the starting blocks.

Buyers starting to come back.........Must be because the "RIG" is getting nearer.

What will happen when the drill starts to turn?

Imo, the sp will drift once the spud has happened. About 10 days before TD (target depth), investors will then start to buy back in ready for the news.

FOGL have intimated they may RNS after each and every target zone, meaning 5 RNS with the last one being TD.

Not going to be a very clever strategy of waiting for TD, might be 4 RNS out before then with T1, T1 deep, Trigg and Trigg deep results, before that last one Three Bears and TD.

Going to catch lots of traders out here as they will never be able to predict when an RNS is coming.

Might be 5, might be 4, might be 3, could be 1 - nobody knows but the board have intimated there could be multiple updates as each and every target zone, if a strike, is company making in its own right and therefore price sensitive.


HARRYCAT - 01 Aug 2012 14:12 - 1106 of 1106
Imo, the sp will drift once the spud has happened. About 10 days before TD (target depth), investors will then start to buy back in ready for the news.