I suspect trading tomorrow will probably answer this conundrum, but I know there are some far wiser owls than me that contribute to this bb & I would be interested in their opinions.

My question is this: the chart below looks to me like a pullback of the uptrend (ie when it went north through 14.00) however I am unsure as it has now broken down through 14.00 whether this is trending up or down :-(

So what do you think - up or down, or should I just flip a coin :-)) ?

Think I will wait while the analysts number crunch & the brokers have their say, but AHL has continually been a known thorn in the side of EMG. Redemptions figure isn't great either but am happy to hold for now. Suspect they will still pay a good divi in order to attract investors, but that's way off at the end of June.

Broker note from Credit Suisse:
"Investment Case: We continue to be bearish about Man group given our
concerns about downside risks to consensus forecasts and further negative
earnings revisions. Moreover we are relatively cautious about hedge fund
inflows and continue to believe that the market under-estimates the impact
of weak investment performance at AHL on future sales. Man group has
become heavily dependent on AHL in recent years with AHL-loaded private
client products contributing 97% of management fee earnings in H1 2010.
Valuation: We believe that Man groups dependence on AHL, high fee
structure and limited near-term growth means that its valuation is relatively
unattractive"

Summary from the Merrill Lynch note:
"Overall, we may trim our estimate by single digit percentages, reflecting AHLs
observed performance plus the marginal flow disappointment. Our view remains
that AHL performance is simply a short term risk which you have to bear if you
invest in Man. Historically, the strategy has bounced back relatively rapidly from
drawdowns, making periods of poor performance attractive entry points for Man.
Looking at the longer term, we continue to believe that what the company sells
diversification, risk control and liquidity is what investors are looking for, in both
retail and institutional formats. This is why we believe the company will be a long
term winner in the asset management industry, and why we reiterate our Buy".

Thanks harry, matter of waiting now, put it in the back of the drawer. lol

Evil's diary: www.uk-analyst.com

foxnil - low so far today 289.70 tempted to go long but with the Dow closed today, bit dodgy, I dont mind missing a few points to the upside so worth waiting.

UBS downgraded Man Group Plc (EMG.L: Quote, Profile, Research) to "sell" from "buy" and took a cautious stance ahead of the British hedge fund manager's trading statement, citing concerns over higher redemptions post the $50 billion fraud by Wall Street trader Bernard Madoff, and further deleveraging. The brokerage also cut its price target on the stock to 260 pence from 315 pence.

AHL still dragging this one down atm. Short term pain for longer term gain, imo.
(".....ahead of the British hedge fund manager's trading statement." Came out on the 15th, so a bit late for that post.)

Starting to look interesting now Harry, been hammered!

Where is the bottom 240p?

EMG is going down fast...I would not step in until 220-230p.
Looks like Madoff has strangled it big time.

You know how to cheer someone up don't you.....lol

Sorry if u hold EMG but I think its downgrade by multiple brokers meaning its fund managers are not up to scratch.

Not looking good, shorted it @275.2 (sb) target 250.0

Chris, your target reached 250p now, not a surprise 4 me.

I expect EMG to go down to 220-230p.

Thats brightened my day up.......not

Thanks hlyeo locked in profit by moving stop to 260, probably being greedy butyour prediction and latest broker TP from 320 to 300 convinces me to hang in for more :-)

Broker note from Oriel today:
"AHL reported overnight that its weekly NAV fell another 3.6% in a continuation of a bad run. The company have indicated that the problems of AHL in exploiting trends are most likely connected with quantitative easing which has been running over the last year during which AHL is down by 16%.
Their expectation for the future in part depends on whether the stimulus withdrawal
essentially by the Federal Reserve and Bank of England is synchronised or not. It would be worse if it were synchronised which looks quite possible. This is what happened in Q1 2009 and AHL has been suffering. If true this implies a further period of inadequate returns until QE is withdrawn.
That may well mean further downside in the shares though we continue to expect them to recover eventually. Current PT 300p."

Broker note (summary) from Credit Suisse:
"Dividend intact in near-term: Although Man has not given specific guidance we believe the company will hold the dividend flat at 44 cents in the y/e March 2010E given the cash generation of the business and the strong capital base.
Catalysts: Man will outline the next AUM update in late March.
Valuation: With the shares off 25% in the last 3 months it looks to us that the new numbers are fully reflected in the share price. It may however require a recovery on AHL/private client flows for the shares to start outperforming again.
We are reducing our target price to 3 (from 3.2) to reflect our EPS downgrades."