.

"It is anticipated that the well operations will be around 60 days".....so am expecting the sp to drift sub 60p.

Wrong Harry imo, at least 2 if not 3 drilling updates during that 60 days imo.

We'll see, but august is a poor trading month and the 'splash & dash' punters will move on to other more tradeable stocks until TD approaches, imo.

First target is very shallow, being T1 and second is also shallow. Half the depth of Sea Lion Main in terms of drilling from Sea Bed/Mud Line.


Could be /rumours/news in 2.5 to 3 weeks imo on the first upper targets.



.

Mr P, read your post #1116. There is no hint, suggestion or intimation in the spud RNS that each level will prompt a further RNS, yet you imply that there may be. But of course you managed to cover all options with enough wriggle room if necessary! ;o)

surely harry is not trying to insert a bit of common sense into this heavily hyped thread?

a caution for those who think that finding LNG will be a commercial hit ....

Australia's giant liquefied natural gas (LNG) projects could be delayed or cancelled because of their spiralling costs, analysts have warned. A pipeline of $200bn worth of LNG projects has been sanctioned that, if built as planned over the next five years, would turn Australia into one of the world's biggest gas exporters. But soaring wages and construction costs, as well as a strong Australian dollar, have made the hugely complex projects even more challenging. Chevron said ten days ago that it was reviewing the costs of its Gorgon LNG scheme, Australia's biggest resource project in which Shell has a 25% stake. When the American energy company gave it the go-ahead almost three years ago, costs were estimated at $37bn, but a senior executive told The Times of industry speculation that put the final cost at $100bn. Chevron will provide details about the revised costs towards the end of the year.

cynic - what has Australia's problems of high wage costs, very strong Ozzie Dollar etc... got to do with the Falklands.

It is well known that this could be delayed (most have been expecting the Oz project to get delayed for over a year now), and if it is then in 2016 the world is short of LNG.

This news would actually make any Loligo gas find likely be fast tracked to production, as the world is soon to be short of LNG. Edison part own an LNG plant and have total expertise in this - perfect partner.

Your words of caution are in fact excellent news for any multi-TCF gas discovery at Loligo - if Oz goes backwards then other projects are urgently needed worldwide to fill the coming shortfall in LNG.

our own little biz has a fair interest in LNG, and i confess i'm not sure what impact this might have on our own small niche ..... on the one hand, it is clear that setting up the structure is hugely more complex and expensive than imagined ..... on the other hand, if the structure is already in place, then arguably, the removable of a potential key supplier may boost the value of that resource

as it stands, there is no indication at all that there is a worldwide shortage of LNG ..... however, there is a very strong case for promoting LNG as a very important power source of the future

of course, at time of writing, FI is neither a source of LNG in remotely commercial quantities nor most assuredly does it have the structure for distributing same should large volumes be discovered

all a bit simplified i know, but then i'm a very simple country boy whom some say has been known to rake for the moon in his local pond

I can confirm that!!!.,.

Emu knows! ..... it's not just the wiltshire boys who are sucked into such activities ..... others have also bought the hype!

Like I said : market cap far too low for the huge possible upside plus partners and cash balance !...

cynic for an independent view, have a read of this and then imagine the Australian projects not happening and what the effect will be on these figures which presently have those projects outputs put in.

http://shareholdersunite.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/06/Global-LNG-Update_CSFB_07062012.pdf

.

the LNG market and distribution of same is still in its infancy ..... our perception is that lots and lots of companies quite fancy the idea, but have yet to take the plunge and/or are not certain of the best and most economic way to distribute once away from the storage terminals ...... turkey, which now has a booming economy, is a classic example

once again, all very simplified

FOGL have kept 75% of Loligo and Nimrod.

I would imagine they will farm some of this out to Noble "after" the results, therefore allowing FOGL to monetise the discovery, if one is made, in quick time.

They are doing everything right to prevent any placings - no need for them given FOGL will have 200 million US$ in cash once they drill Loligo and Scotia and demob the rig.

Hopefully Noble can now also get a rig at a good rate for further drilling.

Strike at Loligo and watch out for a quick farm out to Noble at very good terms for FOGL imo.

IF being the key word as always, for it is on that that your whole supposition rests

Think rf has his pension on this one and is getting the gitters, afraid I'm not convinced, only have a small investment here.,.

Yes cynic, you will post here tomorrow IF you wake up tomorrow morning.

IF is not a negative thing, it just means there is an element of risk that it may or may not happen, thats all.

Everyone is fully aware of the risk here - the downside is 40p a share cash in the bank if Loligo and Scotia both fail.

The upside is pretty much unlimited - well over 10 pounds a share.

I like this risk against the potential reward.

Its why I hold 400K volume of FOGL stock - and I am not selling any of them until after Loligo and Scotia are both drilled and results known.

Cynic,

You say, "For my part, i find it a tad annoying that some posters think it is imperative to put at high risk a substantial sum at what they think are basement levels - all too often that basement will fall into an abyss anyway - on the basis of hype and total hypothesis".

There, I fully agree.
Common sense in investing should always be No 1 priority!

Well it sounds a good deal to me now you have the Yanks on board as well, Political De-risking things.