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Avanti Communications (AVN)     

hlyeo98 - 04 Aug 2010 11:22

This is a BUY tip from Tom Winnifrith...

Sorry if this is rather boring as the market cap is now c 350 million but at 470p Avanti Communications (AVN) - a stock held in the SF t1ps Growth Fund - is really very cheap whichever way you look at it. It is now funded to launch 3 satellites into space ( and fully insured if the worst happens which will only delay the programme by 6 months anyway). You value Avanti by discounting back the net cashflows these satellites will generate. That depends on how much capacity is sold and at what price. Use a model based on very conservative assumptions and this stock is worth 13 ( the lowest valuation in the market). But that model uses assumptions about sales prices which are already being beaten by forward sales Avanti is booking today. Use those prices and you head up to the 22.50 value of house broker Cenkos. My own view is that Avanti will do better still and this stock could therefore be worth 25. Exc itement will mount as the first satellite is launched later this year. Remember those valuations are the Net Present Value of future cashflows ( i.e. what they are worth today). If you can buy at under 600p ( as you can now) you should do so and sit back and wait. I suspect after HYLAS 1 is launched you will never again be able to buy at less than 600p.

ptholden - 26 Nov 2010 14:21 - 127 of 382

Had a small punt yesterday (your fault if it goes wrong Dil!!) so will be watching the launch with interest.

skinny - 26 Nov 2010 14:24 - 128 of 382

Here's the link again - Whoosh! :-)

Chart.aspx?Provider=EODIntra&Code=AVN&Si

Adacol - 26 Nov 2010 15:30 - 129 of 382

We have lift off!!!

Dil - 26 Nov 2010 15:33 - 130 of 382

Train leaving platform five .... choo choo

ptholden - 26 Nov 2010 15:36 - 131 of 382

Yep, bit premature though

+35 pts to the good on yesterdays S/B, will keep it open though and wait for the real excitement - hope it's the right kind of excitement.

skinny - 26 Nov 2010 15:36 - 132 of 382

Ramp bloody ramp :-)

ptholden - 26 Nov 2010 15:42 - 133 of 382

MMs not interested at the moment in getting involved on the sell side of the book, although a few sell orders now appeared.

Make that +60.

Ramp bloody ramp :-)

skinny - 26 Nov 2010 15:47 - 134 of 382

I've taken a few off the table @653 - rude not to.

Dil - 26 Nov 2010 15:53 - 135 of 382

Scardey :-)

Dil - 26 Nov 2010 15:54 - 136 of 382

150p by Monday if we blow up and a tenner by xmas if we don't .... fill yer boots :-)

ptholden - 26 Nov 2010 15:58 - 137 of 382

Me too, scaredy that is, but I have a daily trading target in mind and AVN has just provided 160% in 24hrs, so I'm happy with that.

Dailos - 26 Nov 2010 16:01 - 138 of 382

Looks like its first class for tubby.

ptholden - 26 Nov 2010 16:15 - 139 of 382

Fook, closed too early, in auction :-(

Dil - 26 Nov 2010 16:18 - 140 of 382

lol ... strap yerself in pt your along for the ride now mate

:-)

Dil - 26 Nov 2010 16:25 - 141 of 382

I just got a quote pt ... 667p , I laughed.

Dil - 26 Nov 2010 16:27 - 142 of 382

658p now

656.5p now

649p now

654p now

skinny - 26 Nov 2010 16:27 - 143 of 382

Calm down :-)

Dil - 26 Nov 2010 16:28 - 144 of 382

643p now

650p now

... sod it , be a tenner by xmas i'll wait

Dil - 26 Nov 2010 16:29 - 145 of 382

You should see me when I watch Wales stuff England :-)

ptholden - 26 Nov 2010 16:46 - 146 of 382

You wish Dil!

Closed yesterday's position mate for +46, missed the top. But couldn't resist buying back in!

For once, the over-used term, 'strap yourself in, this shares is ready for lift off' is quite apt!!!!
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