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http://www.moneyam.com/action/news/showArticle?id=4381032
http://www.moneyam.com/action/news/showArticle?id=4381151
http://www.investegate.co.uk/victoria-oil---38--gas--vog-/rns/final-results/201310250700053729R/

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VOG is presently drilling Well 104 in its West Medvezhye field,and expected to reach depth in 4 weeks from spud date of 30th June, that makes 27th July(this week).
Results of testing will be sometime mid/late August, with a positive outcome
it could be HUGH.
With estimates of 134BILLION cubic metres of GAS and 201 Million barrels of Gas
Condensate,it will be a Company Maker. The field is in the area of the largest gas field in the WORLD.
Other assets include Kemerkol in Kazakhstan, with C1 reserves of 8.7MBO
and C2 reserves of7.8MBO. Another acquistion is Tamdykol with potental
reserves of 34MBO, it also has interest in 2 blocks in the North Sea.
You can check it out on www.uk-wire.com, and its own site of www.victoriaoilandgas.com.
It has excellent management team led by Kevin Foo, who hopes to turn it into
a Mid Cap Company(�500m+) in the not to distant future.
As i stated earlier in the post, Drilling is almost complete so it won't be long to Lift Off?
Well, Well worth checking out.
cyril

http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201111040700164867R

http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201111290700139263S
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201112200700132888U
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201207090700051587H
http://www.investegate.co.uk/victoria-oil---38--gas--vog-/rns/rsm-default/201401130700074445X/
http://www.investegate.co.uk/victoria-oil---38--gas--vog-/rns/interim-results/201402280701321590B/
http://www.investegate.co.uk/CompData.aspx?code=VOG&tab=announcements

Amities . TANKER - my sentiments exactly. Shells interest to make a "play" in the Russias is not unknown .Gazpom has 10 billion wrapped up in this area . Lord Brown chose to virtually gamble BPs future . With 72% of BP acreage now concentrated offshore in West Africa , the Caspian ( azeri ) and Black seas , the Russias & the Gulf of mexico, BP has a very handsome future . So much so that Gazpom have been quoted in the Russian Press as having sounding out the idea of massive j/v with BP reg. massive projects in the area of which West Medvezhye is but one known tiny part of a tiny artery of other much bigger intersection of gas who form partof the Gazpom fields ..So big that BP sold 7.8 billion of its North sea assets to snap as much acreage as they could it as they could when denationaliztion hit the foundering USSR ./ emerging Russia . Now Vog have a relatively smallish position but quite literally surrounded by majors from on each side. VOG are NOT an oil play . Forget that . This a GAS play !! Pure and simple . And in great abundance . l dont think the market yet appreciates the sheer scale in terms of size of the recent VOG "gas strike" but more to the point the surrounding similar geological fizures that 3d seismic and and magnetic imaging show to dot the landscape. Apply that to the price of gas on the Henry Hubb exchange and id say people are mad to sell at the very time economic theory says "BUY" Even a dead cat bounces; but VOG is not a dea cat And production when translated into BPDOE we are talking in terms that even in employing the most cautious and conservative of fiscal variables terms an s/p of 250.280p as attainable with ease .But until that gas is out of the ground - either liquified or piped as a gas and more to the point heading west MMs are going to have an absolute field day with this one . But this is not ONLY a news fed stock but rather a momentum stock !. Upon first investigation it appears a shorters dream : yet one that could take shorters to the cleaners...an absolute nightmare. l can smell the fear of big shorters on this one .So Shorters beware !! All this selling is merely profitakers from pre 46p days locking into circa 180% profits . and who wouldnt ? . Like i did. Rebought late on the rebound at 88p and im staying put. l usually play the percentages but i know a top drawer gasfield when hits me in the face !! l know the value of that gas.. This is not a jam tommorow. lts now.Happening. ,,, ,,,,,,,,,,,,,placing @ 1 .. ,,But rumours abound that private equity via one financial instrument or another is prepared to back them to the tune of 10M \So who knows Or step in Shell and buy ,,Qui sait ? J,,

Wait untill the news comes through I say, and dont speculate.

The amount of gas this one as I dont give a chuff. Higher energy prices means your onto a big thing.

My moneys on 5 quid SP 24 months or sooner from here, and the days of low energy prices are gone forever.

cheers GF.

I worked it out as a fair SP of 404p minus whatever the cost of getting that gas out the ground and to the customer. Based on known resources.

NIGGLED!!!
Something about this whole event bothers me and I hope I am wrong but here goes anyway. Lets look at the cold hard facts and forget the get rich quick share price guesstimations:-

1. A rerated find by 31x (normal occurance? accurate? believable?)

2. A dry well buried in a portfolio update? (excusable but why-to prop up price?)

3. Trying to raise cash at 1 when sp set to rocket further and only admiting to it once the press leaked it? (why the hurry and secrecy?)

4. No guarantee that the flow rates will come good or find is commercial.

Does anyone else think it suspicious? Lets face it if you are running a proper business above board wouldn't you disseminate good/bad news first and wait for proven extractable finds before trying to raise the cash especially as flowtest drilling only weeks away.

Yes, I agree Ian. A rare bout of cold, objective analysis from yourself. I think if it falls to 50p it may be a buy.

IT maybe a buy? LOL

Amities ,,,,,,50p ?? ln your dreams buddy . ln your wildest dream !

nice bit of recoVery im only 25% down on my 10k now just hope we get a good flow test or we will see 50p im trying to remain confident eVery other co in the same area has big gas for next 20 years.

Amities . exactement ! Do you think Lord Browne is some type of moron ? To risk selling 7.8 billion worth of BP assets in what Woods and Mckenzie called the "old and tired North sea " to invest in this remote, cold , barren hinterland unless it was positive both gas and oil deposits existed . The USSR knew; but lacked both the technology and capital to extract it . With todays technology like satellite imaging and electro-magnetic and 3d seismic "wildcatters are almost something of the past. Revisions are most common. Look no further than the oil company Cairns for an example of that. Or conversely RPT who showed what happens when you lie about reserves- down from 480p to less than a 100p . .Look at Monterrico with its massive silver deposits who upon revision illustrated 18X its initial estimates .. Revision is commonplace in the world of mining as drilling progresses thus allowing the geology of the well to become better interpreted and understood. And following the debacle @ Shell who lied and bullied assayers reg. their reserves on five seperate occassions and paid dearly- both fiscally and by reputation , l dont think a small minnow like VOG has either the clout to persuade assayers of the calibre of DEGoyler and McNaghten to lie for them nor the inclination to do so : and in doing so self impact ."D and N " did the original assayal and also prepared this resource statement. lt is not as if another assaying team has been brought in to massage or bolster numbers. .@+ J

TheFrenchConnection

The amount of extractable oil or gas from any find varies between zero and the maximum extractable which by its very nature is always less than what is under the ground. That is all we know at the moment and no amount of high tech test gadgets are going to prove anything . What we need is several wells with good flow!!!

1. This leads to Lord Brownes scatter gun principle of finding oil.Find a promising area and sink lots of wells and on average youll get a good number of productive hits.

2.Regal(rpt) only foundered when 2nd well proved negative so not home and dry till all wells in place.(no pun intended!)
3.More drilling will increase understanding but this can swing both ways.

4.Upward revisions common...okay.

5.Even honest assayers can get it wrong or right and still no commercial flow.

Even the directors of this company seem to be showing that they understand the value of a bird(or is that poulet)in the hand compared to two in the bush(or Tundra) ie raising funds before drilling flow wells.

This situation really begs only one question at the moment and that is how much do you like to play RUSSIAN ROULETTE????????

Already in profit and nicely too from my buy on friday.

cheers GF.

Postlifted from another board...


D&M is the chief reserve auditor for many major Russian producers including Gazprom and Novatek and is one of the most respected names in the business.

Using the latest data obtained JUST from Well 104 at West Medvezhye a resource range estimated a maximum amount of 2.3 trillion cubic feet of recoverable gas resources present by D&M. This is over 130 times the previous maximum estimate released by D&M in August 2005.

Recoverable Resources

The D&M volume range of recoverable resources below is based on an independent interpretation of the data gathered from Well 104 in August 2005 that recorded two productive gas intervals at depths of 610 and 1,100 metres:

Recoverable gas

Low 92.3 Bcf
Expected 500.8 Bcf
High 2.3 Trillion cubic feet

Attributable recoverable gas resources per share expected is 4.6 Mcf
with a current high estimate of 20.7 Mcf!
______________________________________________________________________


Rough Valuation

For a reserved estimate, Let us use a price of $40/1000 Cubic Meters (although the actual price could be three times that, as per the article above):

Low:

92000 mil CF = 2600 mil CM * $40/1000 = $104 mil = 62 mil

Expected:

500,000 mil CF = 14000 mil CM * $40/1000 = $560 mil = 329 mil

High:

2.3 mil mil CF = 64,000 mil CM * $40/1000 = $2560 mil = 1.5 bil



Again, to elimiate risks of high valuation let us discount the high number as very optimistic (although possible) and take the average of the other two to make a reasonable (in fact rather minimum) valuation of 200 mil or about 2.50 per share. That is without any other assets or future findings, etc.

Goldfinger

I reckon you're generally to high for your valuation. This is gas in the ground in Russia. Your expected case , 500,000 mil CF you give a value of 329m . I reckon given recent sales prices in the North Sea -- this is more than you would get for that amount of gas in the ground in the North Sea !! Its worth about $250m in the North Sea and $60-70m in Russia (c50m). Hence upside to high estimate would get us to c200m value. This does however get us to your 250p target if the high estimate is hit

Cheers for that confidant. By no means an expert on Oilies so have to rely on others I can trust and in saying that I see Evil K is still long and switched over from being short.

Here is a post I have lifted from the other big board Quote from Evil K...

"Being Britain's most ruthless trader means that one must sometimes turn on a sixpence. The Foo man called me in a state of great excitement from Kazakhstan last night and says that I have Victoria Oil & Gas (VOG) all wrong and that its find could be enormous and so I have bought a shed load of the stock at 107p. If it is good enough for the Foo man it is good enough for me."

I bet E K will know the placing price before the RNS.

For the Foo man presumably he means the chairman of VOG. I guess in this phone call then EK did not get anything he thought was insider information or he would not have been able deal without breaking the law........ . So I wonder what extra insight he thinks he has ??


Goldfinger

These are my guesstimates no super knowledge on oils either, so pls check elsewhere to make sure. Got these figures from one of my spreadsheets, but didn't keep a record of the North Sea deal I worked them out from. Will have to go over the records

To look at it another way, current value of the company is 81m. (from FT.com)

Using Goldfingers equations...

81m = $135m = 40/1000 * volume needed

so volume needed = 3375 mil CM = 119171 million cubic feet

Anything above that and we win.

By the way, I used to work for an oil well monitoring company... but my memory is crap! If only I could remember how it all works!

Guys if I here anything from Evil I will post it.

cheers GF.

All the action on REGAL OIL (rpt) today!!!