.

A rise and about bloody time too (sorry)......should be around 4 with such an important discovery !...at least...

here here RF!!!! Could my luck be changing.

Aye
it`s shame this hasn`t reached its rightful potential, 400p seems reasonable until more news, perhaps it`s heading back up there?

http://contrarianinvestoruk.blogspot.com/

Thursday, March 3, 2011Sense finally returns to Xcite Energy
After briefly hitting close to 3 again this morning, Xcite Energy (XEL)
has finally rallied from its lows to rise as much as 19p to 323p (6%).

The shorters have been out in force over the last few days. They hunt in
packs using the bulletin boards to feed false rumours into the market. Supposed expert posters were questioning the work that Schlumberger had done on the flow test in December and whether the CPR would be delayed again because it hadnt been done properly and the classic yesterday that
the oil actually wouldnt flow because it was too viscous at ambient North
Sea temperatures. In other words, the drilling experts, Schlumberger had
been complete monkeys and made a hash of it.

Then there was the conspiracy theories that the board were keeping market
sensitive information to themselves and that the reserves upgrade would be
below expectations and that they had change supplier (to TRACS) to massage
the figures. Oh, I almost forgot the rumour that they were planning a
massively discounted rights issue at 2.50. All complete XXXX of course!

So the inexperienced investors think oh, maybe the rumours are true, Ill
sell at 3.00 and put my money into something else which is going up (e.g.
Range). Those posters on iii.co,uk and LSE boards must be in the
know. A classic Bear raid! Of course, by the time theyve sold and moved
into something else, that's goes down as well. Get the weak to sell and the
shorters feed off the frenzy. When theyve got their man, they switch and
start buying. Whilst the sheep were selling the last few days, Ive been
topping up. Not putting up with any market maker or shorter nonsense! Hope
theyve closed their shorts now!!?

Paranoia about shorting is rife and rubbish.

Glad my luck has changed,some times you dout yourself.

Good to see one of my favourites rising at long last......the 300p mark will be looked back on as bargain territory.

http://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/ceo_focus/686/rupert-cole-of-xcite-energy-believes-theres-still-significant-upside-on-asset-value-.html

Rupert Cole of Xcite Energy believes theres still significant upside on asset value
Friday, March 04, 2011

http://energy.pressandjournal.co.uk/Article.aspx/2157737?UserKey=#ixzz1FuyVDEnK

''With speculation building that Statoil might also be interested in acquiring the Bentley field that was recently and successfully tested by the small Canadian-UK independent Xcite, and which is said to be on course for first commercial production late this year, a move into the Granite City appears all the more logical.''

At this price, this is worth buying like a first time round.....could go up to 500p on a reserves update !....

it's certainly been a pretty scary stock of late, and i can't remember when it last had a blue day, but it feels like last year!

I've been buying as it drops.....sooner or later there will be a big turnaround.

We all hope so!
I have not added to my holding as yet. Waiting for RKh to pull back ground and then I'll add more. Just a waiting game and I just hope that it all comes together in the right order. RKH first and the XEL

at least XEL seems disinclined to drop down through 300 mark

Bought few more much against my better judgement, have far to many for me.,.

nearly allowed myself to be panicked out of at least some of these, but thank goodness did not ..... what a turn-around ...... ditto England / Bangla cricket; cracking game developed in last 30 minutes

Nice to see some blue....

Looks promising this morning, nicely blue and my 311p buy going well.,.

Been a long wait for this one,i just hope it will be worth it.

From the motley

The share price of Xcite has certainly been interesting to watch over the last couple of months or so.

Indeed from a peak of 420p -upon release of the flow test results- it has mysteriously gone walkabout down to 300p where the shorters have found a support level hard to breach.

Having gone back through all my postings on this stock over the last few months I am quite satisfied that I have made the right investment calls since July of last year. The exception to this was when a few days after announcement of the flow test results I somewhat over exuberantly opined/predicted that the stock would head up to 600p in anticipation of a release of an updated CPR. How wrong I was !!

So the question really is - what has happened to dampen the share price and why do we still have when I think is a disconnect between subjective fundamental value and the market's current price for this stock ?

I would offer the following as explanatory factors for this stock's subdued performance so far this year.

1)Shorters have been out on force as the usual deramp crews have tried to sow fear and misinformation. This strategy has been markedly successful over the last 6 weeks. Doubts have been successfully cast as to the nature and validity of the flow test conducted by the bucket and spade brigade as well as the reasons for the apparent change of independent reserves auditor drafting up the reserves report.

2) The Bentley alliance terms are still not known to the market and that lack of transparency will continue to hold the share price back as it makes it difficult for analysts to assess the stock's true leverage to the oil price as well as the economic netback to Xcite.

I am afraid that the Board will need to come clean on this at some time although I do acknowledge that at the oil barrel conference they did indicate that the economic returns to the partners would be risk adjusted and be within market parameters. Still, this disclosure is insufficient but I guess that the Board have their communication strategy planned in advanced for this year prior to FSP.

3) The market is still waiting for the Reserves update and 200 Mio bbls seems to be the consensus priced in. Obviously this reserves update will be the key driver of share price value over the coming months. The delay in the release of this from end Feb/early March to late end March/early April has somewhat shaken some people's confidence given the previously immaculate communication track record of the Board. This said the Board is correct in my opinion to be patient and take the time necessary to maximize the value of the report.

Not long to go now but I expect a reserves estimate circa 250 mmbbls.

4) The uncertainties around funding and the rumours of a discounted placing for institutional investors have also contributed to the shareprice's lack lustre performance. Viewed in this context, this morning 's announcement of an increase in the SEDA line to GBP 100 Mio is a very significant and positive development as it effectively puts the finance in place for FSP. I think that this speaks volumes for Yorkville's confidence and I am sure that they would not have increased their exposure without having a pretty firm preliminary indication of the reservoir numbers and technical characteristics.

Lastly the situation in the Middle East and Japan has also to be taken into account although I don't think that they are fundamentally negative in the long run for Xcite as

a) The trouble in the Middle Easst only highlights the growing attractiveness of oil reserves in the North Sea

b) The problems inherent in producing nuclear power will make oil and gas more attractive assets (particularly gas)

So really not long to go now before the reserves assessment report comes out ( within 30 days my guess if not before) and only 9 months to go before FSP.

Will the share price be 315 p in December ? If the oil price does not collapse I don't think so !!