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Gone long on VGM Looks to be very cheap . Look at what directors paid for stock.

Excelent write up on VGM in last few days by Ross Jones of Scrazy. Show the Company to be very cheap going forward.....



Buy Vatukoula at 91.125p
Says Ross Jones of t1psim.com

We own a shed load of these shares in our fund I declare this at the start. We are damn glad we hold them as they are dirt cheap. Let me also declare that! However, the share price of Fiji focused miner Vatukoula Gold Mines has been in the doldrums as of late. The last six months have seen the miner come off a high of circa 225p to where the shares currently trade at 91.125p, valuing the company at just 85.4 million. A trend of disappointing short term production downgrades and swollen costs associated with longer term focused mine developments coupled with a surprise ( if relatively small) placing at 125p, has seen solid downward pressure on the share price which simply does not reflect the fundamentals of the outstandingly strong long term bull case.

Our view is that the price weakness is a great opportunity for the long term investor and hence we have bought more at these depressed levels and here is why.

Forecasts for full year Gold production has been consecutively revised down over the last two quarters and for the current year to August 31st the management has now provided guidance of 55,000 ounces having produced 41,487 ounces up to the end of Q3. The company is paying the price of over promising and under delivering but has focused itself upon accelerating its long term mine development aimed at enhancing production capacity. In the short term this has seen lower than forecast grades processed and costs become swollen, but in the long run should position the company well to hit its target 100,000 oz output level. We reckon it will be shooting at that level by early 2012.

The stock market does not treat short term disappointment well and in this transitory period leading up to full output there is scope for continued share price weakness here. But once target output is reached, at 100,000 ounces ($1,500 Gold) and forecast costs per ounce of circa $880 Vatukoula will be generating free cash of 39.1 million. With insiders recently buying reasonable amounts of stock at 110p (CEO & Chairman) and Vatukoula currently trading on a projected multiple of just 2.2 the bad news, and disappointment are more than discounted here. The long mine life and potentially economically attractive exploration upside provide further justification for investment here. The current share price weakness should be seen as a buying opportunity.

I would add as a potential bonus that there is no reason why output could not be hitting 130,000 oz by the end of 2012 as some higher grade open pit deposits near the main mine are exploited. That would alter the maths materially both by increasing output but also by reducing unit costs by (perhaps) $100 oz. Moreover the company is also working on a biomass fuel provision system which could be onstream within a year and would cut cash costs by $140 oz. And finally, we think that gold is heading a lot higher than $1500. You can play with the maths yourself but under some circumstances this company is now trading on a cashflow multiple of little more than 1.

Ross Jones
www.t1psim.com

13/07/2010

I had thought Cameron was a PR man, but is now realising his true vacation of a travelling salesman.

What is Georgie boy up to? He is very quiiete.

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Serious for a moment. I have just been warned by Anti viral programme that the normal e-mail scam from Halifax on line contains a virus.

POG going like the clappers this morning, on a real bull run.

Good to see the trend in stock on loan a proxy for short selling is falling on CEY. Chart shows the trend is now falling to the downside going well into July......

GFRD galiford Try, looks like an ideal time to climb aboard. the disparity index looks fantastic on this one.




Fundys to back it up with aswel..........

Forward P/E of just over 9 going into 2012 looks too cheap imo.

Galliford Try PLC

FORECASTS 2011 2012
Date Rec Pre-tax () EPS (p) DPS (p) Pre-tax () EPS (p) DPS (p)

Panmure Gordon
14-07-11 BUY 36.20 31.60 16.00 60.00 53.00 20.00
The Royal Bank of Scotland NV
14-07-11 BUY 35.23 30.73 16.00 60.04 52.96 22.00
Peel Hunt
13-07-11 BUY 34.75 30.16 16.00 60.01 53.56 22.00
Arbuthnot Securities
05-07-11 BUY 36.00 31.70 16.00 60.00 52.60 22.00
Numis Securities Ltd
05-05-11 BUY 36.00 31.10 16.00 58.00 51.00 22.00

2011 2012
Pre-tax () EPS (p) DPS (p) Pre-tax () EPS (p) DPS (p)

Consensus 35.63 31.08 16.00 59.72 52.73 21.55
1 Month Change 0.03 0.05 0.00 0.07 0.02 0.39
3 Month Change 5.06 3.79 2.18 0.45 -0.25 4.42


GROWTH
2010 (A) 2011 (E) 2012 (E)

Norm. EPS -67.64% 67.93% 69.69%
DPS -40.95% 46.79% 34.68%

INVESTMENT RATIOS
2010 (A) 2011 (E) 2012 (E)

EBITDA 30.60m 40.72m 70.59m
EBIT 27.30m m m
Dividend Yield 2.21% 3.25% 4.38%
Dividend Cover 1.70x 1.94x 2.45x
PER 26.62x 15.85x 9.34x
PEG -0.39f 0.23f 0.13f
Net Asset Value PS 368.12p 590.17p 617.82p

Now that looks seriously good GF. Nice find.

SC im starting to use the lower indicator Diaparity Index. problem is not many sites do it, but Ive found it to be a corker for getting onto an upward trend.

CIU CAPE chart looks seriously positive........

Futures looking good for the morning.

Gone long of VLX

Way too cheap this stock. A P/E of just 10 to 2013, historicaly they are giving it away.

Volex Group PLC

FORECASTS 2012 2013
Date Rec Pre-tax () EPS (p) DPS (p) Pre-tax () EPS (p) DPS (p)

FinnCap
20-07-11 BUY 17.70 24.40 3.00 22.00 30.70 5.00
The Royal Bank of Scotland NV
19-07-11 BUY 17.70 24.00 3.00 23.50 31.86 5.00
Edison Investment Research
11-07-11 None 17.70 23.50 3.10 22.23 29.50 3.30
Charles Stanley Securities
01-06-11 BUY 18.50 24.88 3.00 22.00 29.52 3.33
Milkstone Ltd
27-05-11 HOLD 18.20 24.25 1.00

2012 2013
Pre-tax () EPS (p) DPS (p) Pre-tax () EPS (p) DPS (p)

Consensus 17.91 24.17 2.74 22.43 30.42 4.20
1 Month Change -0.21 -0.20 0.32 -0.34 -0.31 0.01
3 Month Change -0.03 0.30 0.92 0.43 1.23 4.20


GROWTH
2011 (A) 2012 (E) 2013 (E)

Norm. EPS 26.00% 32.60% 25.86%
DPS % % 53.26%

INVESTMENT RATIOS
2011 (A) 2012 (E) 2013 (E)

EBITDA 17.37m 22.60m 26.67m
EBIT 15.16m m m
Dividend Yield % 0.89% 1.36%
Dividend Cover x 8.81x 7.24x
PER 16.90x 12.74x 10.12x
PEG 0.65f 0.39f 0.39f
Net Asset Value PS 29.87p 56.36p 79.65p

Hemscott premium

Another broker note out from lale yesterday evening.....

evolution securities maintains buy rating...

target 1520.

SAV.......12:40 FLASH: UBS upgrades Savills from neutral to buy, target price reduced from 400p to 390p
Story provided by StockMarketWire.com
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Surprised this one hasn't appeared here yet.

Senior looks like a trading long on a positive breakout from a bullish pennant formation. The stock has historically stayed overbought for periods of time as marked on RSI and Stochs tops in black............

I still hold DRX :-)))

Been looking at that one DRX and waiting for a dammed pull back but it hasnt come SC.

So frustrating.

Anyone brave enough to take the short tomorrow near the close if we get a red candle he he. I would if the SP wasnt such a high multiple and the stock didnt have such a high beta and volatility.

Beautiful set up ehh????????



Wish it was other way round and a long wanted opening. Think id go for that.

Wonder if Cynic would take the short trade???.

Looks a classic Goldfinger - go on - you know you want to :-)