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SEFTON RESOURCES INC - UNDERRATED OIL PRODUCER (SER)     

ptholden - 04 Aug 2006 19:53


???

Sefton Resources is an independent AIM quoted Oil and Gas company operating in the US. The companys principal current assets are two producing oilfields in California (Tapia Canyon Field and Eureka Canyon Field); it is also in the process of buying up prospective coal bed methane acreage (CBM) in Kansas.

Update from July 2007 AGM

Finance

I revealed in my annual statement that discussions were well advanced with
Banking institutions. The final phase of the agreement with a suitable bank
without complex and restrictive terms is now very near. This is weeks away
rather than months.

Oil

Oil production at Tapia has averaged 4,100 BO during the last five months. Which
is in line with last years levels. Once this finance is in place we will be able
to move ahead with drilling.

Drilling

We have stayed close to drilling contractors and we are ready to move forward
quickly when this finance is available.

Steam generation

The equipment is now in place at Tapia. Preparation time is needed to connect
the equipment and carry out the necessary trials required to get the main work
started. We anticipate this steaming will start in the next couple of months. If
successful a significant amount of oil resources will move into the Proven
Producing Reserves category.

Joint Ventures

Discussions continue with a number of interested parties to develop our Anderson
counties gas assets.

New finance team

A new CFO has been appointed with good knowledge and experience of the oil
industry. A new assistant to undertake all the daily needs has also been
appointed.


SWOT ANALYSIS

STRENGTHS:

Sefton has two oil fields, both producing. One is already profitable, and the other is breaking even. This should generate good cashflow for the company over the medium term.
Sefton owns 100% of both its major oil interests and is now demerging its non-controlled oil interests in order to concentrate on those where it has full control (Sefton has recently disposed of its Canadian assets for CDN450k cash).
Sefton is establishing a track record of using modern extraction technologies to improve the efficiency of its fields.

WEAKNESSES:

Sefton has suffered from a number of one-off factors. While these were out of the companys control the problems it has faced since 2002 have held back development and taken up management time. Investor disenchantment may account for the current low rating.

OPPORTUNITIES:

Sefton has acquired acreage for CBM (coal bed methane) in Kansas. CBM gas production is a thriving market and Sefton believes it has acquired the acreage at advantageous prices. While this is a longer term prospect it is an exciting one and could eventually eclipse the oil interests.
There are a number of other fields in the Ventura Basin and more generally in California as a whole that Sefton may look to target now its cash flows are stronger.
Eureka is a semi-exploration play which may contain further upside. This cannot yet be evaluated.
At this valuation the company may prove an attractive target for a larger player.

THREATS

Owing to its geographical location the company continues to be exposed to the threat of bush fires, canyon floods and geological interruption (earthquake risk). Sefton is taking steps to mitigate this risk by investing in Kansas and although Forest Basin area is susceptible to tornados - gas facilities have a minimal surface footprint.

LINKS:

Sefton Resources Web Site

Quarterly Update (Mar 08)

Operations Update Dated 14 January 2008

Hardman Report

Final Results - Year Ended 31 Dec 2006

2007 AGM & Update

In The News - Oil Barrel Dated 31 January 2007

Daily California Crude Oil Prices (MIDWAY SUNSET 13)

Chart.aspx?Provider=EODIntra&Code=SER&Si

moonshine - 04 Jul 2008 21:09 - 1987 of 2350

Evening all.

5bag, I am in both IVE and SER, less in IVE I have to admit. IVE look very aggressive in their drilling campaigns, and will probably get to the CBM before SER, although SER are hoping to start a pilot drilling program in the autumn too. Both are very undervalued, but it would seem that rather a lot of companies are at the moment, and with summer approaching (or have we missed it?) maybe some investors are getting out.

kuzemko - 04 Jul 2008 21:10 - 1988 of 2350

looking at ive last report, ive seem to be a lot more undervalued than ser

moonshine - 04 Jul 2008 21:17 - 1989 of 2350

Can you give us some figures to support that, kuzemko?

On a completely separate tack. The Inland Revenue have a mileage allowance for expense claims when using your own car on business. As far as I know these are:

40p per mile for the first 10,000 miles
25p per mile after 10,000 miles

With the incredible increase in the price of petrol, does anyone know if these rates have gone up?

relishing - 04 Jul 2008 23:11 - 1990 of 2350

I would also like to know how ive 'seems to be a lot more undervalued than ser'

IVE market cap currently around 25m after recent pullback, SER about 6.7m.

Just had a look at the latest IVE update and I see that "Accordingly, the Company's current net working interest daily production across all projects is 420 MCFDE". 420mcfd = 70bopd (probably less in $ equivalent). Now I have no doubt IVE is another great long-term investment, but it does not appear to me to be currently suffering from the same level of undervaluation as SER.

One striking factor with SER is, notwithstanding the fact it is producing oil (and profitably) and not mainly gas, is its (relatively speaking) very low cost base. SER is making a clear profit of over $6m pro-rata at current (or May, pre Eureka workovers, new pumps etc) production volumes (188bopd) and current oil price.

The other fairly unusual factor is of course that it has a ~100% net interest in all its assets.

Looking at SER at 6p mid, the downside from here (worst-case scenario) must be no more than -1p or so (lets say 20%). That has been the baseline level over the last few years, when the oil price received at Tapia was about 40% of the current price, when production lingered around 130bopd and with no credit facility and no hope of paying for future drilling. When they were barely breaking even.
Whereas the upside from this level must surely be many many multiples of 1p! Surely that simple fact alone makes this a no-brainer at this price. Yet again, I am getting tempted to liquidate the rest of my portfolio and stick it all in SER..

finnboy - 04 Jul 2008 23:19 - 1991 of 2350

Rel , you are totally correct..i cant believe knobs would sell their shares at 5.5p when there is so much potential upside

i have been offered 0% apr on my c/card until april 09 , i am tempted to write myself a cheque for 20k to max it out to double my holding here!
obviously this isnt normally advisable..lol!
however, i see it as a no brainer too
so we shall see......

dalcon01 - 05 Jul 2008 07:42 - 1992 of 2350


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5bag - 05 Jul 2008 10:25 - 1993 of 2350

moonshine, a number of analyst boffin types are predicting a sector re-rating in Q3 to take into account the oil price hikes. They are now realising that oil prices are not a 'bubble'. Oilies with high p/e ratios might stay static or drop, but ones that are producing and plenty of potential for increase and low p/e ratios should be in the spotlight.

relishing, yep the 420mcuft is low, it should have been nearer 600mcuft, but theyre looking for 1mmcuft+ end of year with extra 20 wells on niobrara, plus oil from rock, ayres and udal, plus moving 238BCF contingent resources to P1,P2 and P3. Also evaluating woodford shale and CBM. Ive not seen a drilling campaign as agressive as this for a small co (fully funded too). And its low risk acreage. I just noticed that SER also had kansas CBM prospect so started reading more...looks good i have to say

good luck

aldwickk - 05 Jul 2008 14:59 - 1994 of 2350

California's Wildfires Have Scorched 521,000 Acres

Is this going to be a problem for SER ? last time they were lucky.

relishing - 05 Jul 2008 15:05 - 1995 of 2350

Hopefully they won't be a problem for Sefton - these ones are further to the North of the state, about 100 miles away from where Sefton are.

dave7010 - 05 Jul 2008 15:54 - 1996 of 2350

get on rift.

moonshine - 05 Jul 2008 16:14 - 1997 of 2350

***king silly share price ;-)

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tipton11 - 05 Jul 2008 17:54 - 1998 of 2350

I like the look of ser but how long before it produces real dough? and the size of it's spread!

moonshine - 05 Jul 2008 20:19 - 1999 of 2350

You can normally buy within the spread. For instance, on Friday the published spread was 5.5/6.5p (this spread is a bit extreme for recent times), you could buy at 6.38p. I would wait until they narrowed the spread a bit, probably to 0.5p.

Real dough is being produced at the moment, > $500,000 for May alone. As they start to resolve the problems (if they can) with the recent drilling and get the steaming producing more (again, if they can), the revenue will increase. Also June oil price was higher than May so if they only continue to produce 188 bopd the revenue will have gone up.

personally I hope SER increase production by a further third, and the price of oil drops to $100. Which would still generate the same revenue.

REDHILL - 05 Jul 2008 21:05 - 2000 of 2350

moon

I don't believe it will take too much to increase production by a third but don't see the price of oil dropping for a while.

Good, i got post 2000

kuzemko - 06 Jul 2008 23:30 - 2001 of 2350

")

barclay - 18 Jul 2008 12:53 - 2002 of 2350

Is it true that sefton is on target for $6million pro rata/interim, so does that mean yearly production should be $12 million, which is seftons current mkt cap more or less, if this is true i want to buy in, because to buy a company at cash asset value
is a rare event and even if the market didnt rerate it which it will eventually, if sefton keeps making market cap level cash the shareholders will get one market record breaking dividend of 100% or something, i dont think that will happen though because the smart money will eventually get in price it up accordingly, the only thing i'm worried about are the california fires, are seftons assets insured against this, just in case, becuase that would set the company back if there was a blow up?

driver - 18 Jul 2008 13:02 - 2003 of 2350

barclay
Yes, $6m and still counting that is on current production we hope for a lot more after the next drilling update and more wells to be drilled this year.

The fires are no where near SER'S oil fields even if they were they have made provisions for future fires over the last couple of years the wells have large clearance around them.

barclay - 18 Jul 2008 13:16 - 2004 of 2350

thanks driver i'm buying this for long term, as i missed out of dana petroleum a few years ago, i hesitated in buying and then forgot, the next year i looked dana went from 10p to multiple pounds, the same will happen with sefton to those who are patient, the reason why people cant buy is because their losing money on other stocks and expect a recession, warren buffet says this is the best time to pick up bargains but not wall street banks, hehe!

driver - 18 Jul 2008 15:49 - 2005 of 2350

barclay
Welcome aboard I don't think you will have to wait long.

CWMAM - 18 Jul 2008 17:59 - 2006 of 2350

Bought some more today at 5.75P!!looks good.
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