Any experts out there with a view to todays RNS on Algerian gas find ?
Looks good to me but sp is down
Thanks in advance nr

I'm no expert but your question intersted me enough to look around and see why the PCI sp had not flown.

Far from being any market manipulation which is often cited as the blame for these poor responses, here is an explanation from flyingbull on TMF.

Seems about right imo.

"For me, the keywords in the well update are

....tight sandstones....further evaluation......well stimulation via hydraulic fracturing.....

As expected, the problem is the tight reservoir. "Tight" is one of the scarest words in upstream oil industry. ;-) It seems in their judgement, conventional cased hole testing would not produce the expected flowrate. If they took a chance on cased hole testing, future hydraulic stimulation would be compromised. Hence openhole testings. At least they could go back into the well and perform the expensive hydraulic stimulations by optimising the casing and perforation programs.

If every production well needs to be fracture stimulation for production, especially in the desert, it may render the project uneconomic.

Personally I would not be encouraged by the news. Prefer to take a wait and see approach."

fb

Many thanks SS Walker. I appreciate your responce and research, albeit the tech
from F/BULL did not help me too much-- ie --------tight/holetesting/flowrate/stimulations,all remind me of a good night in Amsterdam many years ago.(Don't reply)
The one point that does bother me is the CEO's comment-one word-'encouraged'-
that he uses in the RNS vis a v doing hand stands re.3 gas finds-- la d dar.
I did not top up----thanks again---nr

Although the news from pci was not exactly exciting, the fact is the SP, is going down all be it, now we await approval of the Algerian goverment. Initially this will take quite a while to confirm, apart from delays the news was encourageing but not delightfull from JC. We have been here before some 18 months ago.. I feel we have a lenghty delay untill oustanding news arrives. In the mean time i see the Sp drifting down to less 10p. not negative but no momentum to drive Pci for the time been. plus to many shares in issue to make a dramatic impact . opion shared by other collegues, bye. for now

ONDON, Sept 29 (Reuters) - Irish oil and gas explorer Petroceltic (PCI.L: Quote, Profile, Research) is in early discussions that could lead to the sale of a stake in its key asset in Algeria to oil giant BP (BP.L: Quote, Profile, Research), a source familiar with the matter said on Friday.

The company has had initial talks with BP about a deal which could lead to a sale of up to 49 percent of its interest in the 10,800 square kilometre block, the source said.

A spokesman for BP declined immediate comment.

Petroceltic Chief Executive John Craven would not comment on BP's involvement, but he did confirm that the group had received offers from a number of oil majors.

"We have had unsolicited approaches from oil & gas companies for participation in the block," he told Reuters in an interview. "We are perceived as a small company, so the large majors in Africa think we need a partner."

He added that whether he would go ahead with the sale would depend on what each company offers.

At 0945 GMT, shares in the company, which is listed on London's Alternative Investment Market, were 11.3 percent higher at 14-3/4 pence, valuing the business at around 100 million pounds ($187 million).

Craven said BP had two Algerian blocks adjacent to Petroceltic's asset -- known as the Isarene block -- but that they were a lot smaller.

Petroceltic currently owns 75 percent of Isarene, with the remaining 25 percent controlled by Algerian state owned oil firm Sonatrach. (Reuters Messaging:john.bowker.reuters.com@reuters.net;e-mail: john.bowker@reuters.com;telephone: +44 207 542 8454)) ($1=.5277 Pound) ($1=.5347 Pound)

big bids ?

This company got a small write up in this weekend's FT so there may be a bit of short term interest to come. (coupled with the fact that PCI have reduced their half year losses by over 80%)

We are seeing buyers getting in cheap . The next 6 months will see the sp up to 30p

DOLMEN DAILY
October 5, 2006

Todays Recommendation
Petroceltic (13p) Crucial quarter ahead Stuart Draper
_ Crucial quarter : Q4 2006 is likely to be the most important quarter to date in Petroceltics history, as some of the share price
weakness of recent weeks has undoubtedly been driven by uncertainty surrounding the level of success achieved from the
drilling of the companys first well on the Isarene block in Algeria, ISAS-1. This uncertainty should be eliminated by the end of the
quarter at the latest, when the flow rates of both this well and the second well, HTT-2, should be announced.
_ Algerian approval : The delay with regard to the announcement of the first wells flow rates has been caused by the need for them to be approved first by the Algerian authorities. The difficulties encountered by both First Calgary and Dana in recent years as a result of making such announcements before getting the necessary Algerian authority approval suggests that this is credible reason for the delay. However, the fact that the potential for such a delay had not been flagged in advance to the market represents a poor investor relations performance, which will surely not be repeated in the future.
_ Algerian asset : The delay has resulted in a similar level of market scepticism as that experienced in early 2005 when the share price fell to c.8p. However, the cash raised since (net cash of $55m as at 30/06/06, with $20m likely to be sufficient to fund the drilling of both ISAS-1 and HTT-2), as well as the prices paid for similar 2005 for a 15% interest in Gaz de Frances Algerian blocks), gives a current cash position of 3.2p per share, as well as a worst case value of 7p per share for the companys existing proven Algerian reserves of 68mmbbls.
_ Valuation support : When Petroceltics Italian assets, which have been conservatively valued at 4p per share, are also included, this gives a current worst case value per share of 14.2p, in line with the 14p level at which c.$30m was raised last April, and at a
discount to the 18p level at which c.$10m after costs was raised last April.
_ Upcoming catalysts : In addition to the crucial flow rates in relation to both ISAS-1 and HTT-2, now expected by the end of next month at the latest, other potential near term catalysts for the share price include the spudding of HTT-2, expected within 2 weeks, as well as further clarification of the progress achieved from ISAS-1, also expected within c.2 weeks. We will continue to stay the course for 1 final quarter : Speculative BUY.

12.75 to buy , had to get some more at this price .

Started next drilling , results 4 to 6 weeks time .

Davy note 12th October
Petroceltic
PCI LN
Drilling of 2nd well in Algeria
Has begun; results expected in
4-6 weeks time; current market
Rating unjustified

Petroceltic spudded its second well in Algeria on October 9 and
Operations are expected to be completed in 4.6 weeks time. The well,
Hassi Tab Tab 2 or HTT-2, will target potential hydrocarbon reservoirs of
Carboniferous, Devonian and Ordovician age.
We believe that Petroceltic.s market rating is unjustified even in todays
Market where investors are no longer putting their marginal dollar in junior
E&P stocks. Since Petroceltic commenced drilling its first well in Algeria in
July, its share price is down 35%. Yet all the information we have on the
First well indicates a success: ISAS-1 flowed gas from three separate levels.
Such operational performance is hard to reconcile with Petroceltic.s market
Performance over the same period.

That says it all .

however, always worrying when a main board director (FD in this case) looks to have been booted out ...... that said, looks as though sp should be supported at this level

cynic - it certainly does look the best case for support at this level I have ever seen.

That being the case, it'll probably go down.

Loosing the FD is not good.

hi seagoon ...... if i was desperate to have a gamble, i guess there could be worse shares to buy, but other than that, i see no compelling reason to invest.

Afternoon - I held these once, in the same way actually held PRE(a couple of years back, so don't laugh!!)

The silly thing is the PCI sp went up nicely into the high teens and they missed the drill target, ran out of rig time and money.

Down went the sp in free fall........... I was lucky to get out with nearly what I started with.

I did not learn because I also as I said bought into PRE, won on the columbian wells, expected them to hit a massive target at the Danbury Dome, but who else didn't?

The company kept coming out with positive comments, only to find they found enough gas to light one barbie for a week!

Having been thousands in profit on both occassions, and nearly had a massive set back twice, I do things differently now, I generally ignore little oilies with no production and high hopes.

you are a wise man! for myself, with regard to oilies, i still hold BUR having just sold my TLW at a nice profit as they were/are heading towards a fairly substantial resistance .... i also have modest holdings in VOG, GOO and CHP, on the hope that at least one should come good .... if asked to say which, i would plump for VOG at this juncture.

Do you remeber GRV?

I did have a few, they fit the critera and their sp is depressed according to my research.

They went up just under 10% Friday on the TSX.

Dont know why but watch them this week.

know nothing about GRV at all ...... only 32k shares traded on Friday, so guess either tiny-tiny or totally illiquid or both

They are Canadian so their eyes are little dots.

I'll take this over to the GRV thread.