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Centamin Egypt : Worth waiting for... (CEY)     

pthwaite - 20 Sep 2004 10:27

CEY is a gold mining company operating in Egypt. It was ordered by the Egyptian Government to stop drilling pending a legal dispute brought against the company by a government minister.

Since then, the whole Government cabinet was replaced a few months ago and the minister now in charge of Mining is believed to be positive on Western investment in the country. CEY are pushing for this minister to allow them to continue drilling ASAP; investers are waiting....patiently.

As soon as the company gets the go-ahead to continue drilling, the share price will move north; CEY has plenty of gold in this mine and it is (apparantly) the case of "raking" it out rather than drilling for it!

Check them out...worthy of a punt.

Chart.aspx?Provider=EODIntra&Code=CEY&Si

menorca1 - 26 Mar 2013 12:38 - 2009 of 2354

has been up and down lately but results tomorrow

share price on the up now.
I am in ahead of good figures

menorca1 - 26 Mar 2013 15:08 - 2010 of 2354

now starting to motor

skinny - 26 Mar 2013 15:12 - 2011 of 2354

Apparently Hamdy Fakharany has been arrested.

skinny - 27 Mar 2013 07:11 - 2012 of 2354

Annual Results

HIGHLIGHTS FOR THE YEAR (1) (2) (3)

Centamin delivered strong operational and financial results in 2012, producing 262,828 ounces of gold (2011: 202,699 ounces) and generating profit after tax for the year of US$199 million (2011: US$194.0 million). Through the Group's emphasis on rigorous cost control, Centamin has continued to reap the benefits of the high gold price, and this was enhanced further by its debt-free and unhedged position. Now in its third year of production, the Sukari Gold Mine is highly cash generative, providing EBITDA of US$233.3 million (2011: US$211.4 million), a 10% increase on 2011, and a robust cash and cash equivalents balance of US$147.1 million (2011: US$164.2 million) as at 31 December 2012.

2012 presented some operating environment challenges, however a solid second quarter and a record fourth quarter of production have shown that a substantially larger production profile is achievable for Sukari. This potential for production growth combined with the Group's reserves, a significant expansion programme, a solid financial position, and an experienced team means Centamin is well positioned for 2013, as is shown by the following:

· Basic earnings per share 18.27 cents, up 2% on prior year.

· Record EBITDA US$233.3 million, up 10% on the prior year.

· Full year production was 262,828 ounces, a 30% increase on 2011 and above guidance of 250,000 ounces.

· Cash costs of production of US$669 per ounce (equivalent to US$530 per ounce versus US$556 per ounce in 2011 at subsidized fuel prices).

· Stage 4 plant expansion (to 10Mtpa) commissioning activities began in Q1 2013 with the new power station commissioned in January 2013 and new blowers and compressors to be commissioned in Q2 2013. The bulk of commissioning will commence, and be complete, in the second half of 2013. Expenditure to date is US$228.5 million of the total forecast US$325 million including contingency.

· Centamin remains debt-free and unhedged with cash, bullion on hand, gold sales receivable and available-for-sale financial assets of US$219.4 million as at 31 December 2012.

· Drilling continued at the V-Shear porphyry and commenced at the Kurdeman prospect.

· A gravity survey, aimed at targeting and defining porphyries beneath the wadi sediments was completed late in 2012 with results due in Q2 2013.

· Results in Ethiopia confirm the existence of low grade mineralisation, with drilling continuing.

HARRYCAT - 28 Mar 2013 16:09 - 2013 of 2354

StockMarketWire.com
Fox-Davies has downgraded its recommendation on Centamin (LON:CEY) to "sell" from "hold" in a research note to investors today. The City broker has reduced its price target on the gold miner to 41 pence a share (formerly 44 pence). Separately, Investec restated its "buy" rating with an increased 67.5 pence a share price target (up from 67.1 pence) while Societe Generale stuck with its "hold" call on the stock and a 55 pence per share price target. Yesterday, Westhouse Securities reiterated its "buy" recommendation with an unchanged target price of 65 pence while Canaccord Genuity reaffirmed its "speculative buy" rating and 90 pence a share price target. Despite today"s downgrade, 64 per cent of brokers continue rate the shares as a "buy" (or equivalent), according to Broker Forecasts consensus data.

cynic - 28 Mar 2013 16:36 - 2014 of 2354

"balearic man" may well have called this one wrong

gibby - 28 Mar 2013 21:53 - 2015 of 2354

hmmm shame ethiopia only low grades to date - look to buy at 35 - 40 range here - surprisingly high contingency for stg 4 plant - and not fully explained exactly what it is wanted for - heyho

HARRYCAT - 04 Apr 2013 13:50 - 2016 of 2354

Canaccord note today:
"Although the financial results released last week were relatively strong the key decision on the validity of the Sukari mining licence is fairly distant. The Egyptian judicial system remains affected by political instability and we now expect the final court ruling to take about 12 months to be released. This limits possible upside and allows for potential negative news flow and media speculation in 2013. With few near-term catalysts on the horizon, we downgrade to SELL from Speculative Buy.

Centamin continues to trade (now at 0.43x NAV) at a discount to peers (0.65x) due to:
1) underperformance of high-risk producers looks likely to persist in 2013; 2) no major near-term catalysts anticipated, while 22% yoy production growth expected in 2013 is priced in; 3) the legal appeal on the validity of Sukari’s mining licence is the key overhang; 4) retrospective fuel charge – potential 4p/share liability; 5) total cash costs are expected to be above the peer average in 2014-15; 6) Stage 4 - permitting risk and supply chain uncertainties; 7) earlier than expected profit sharing reduces our net cash flow estimate by 64% in 2014; and the Egyptian economy is in crisis and we expect social unrest to intensify in the near term.
We think two key catalysts could turn sentiment positive. First – a clear decision by the Supreme Court to satisfy Centamin’s appeal and rule in its favour. Second – introduction of a dividend policy, which we see as likely in 2014 after the successful Stage 4 commissioning and ramp up.
Our 2013E EPS falls 13% to US$0.21 as we now expect U$50m in profit to be distributed to the government in 2013. Our 2014 production estimate falls 11% to 362koz, while cash costs rise 7% to US$882/oz. These, and a higher expected profit share in 2014 (up US$66m), reduce our EPS by 47% to US$0.14 in 2014E.
We lower our target price to 38p/share from 90p/share based on a 0.3x target NAV multiple (0.6x previously), peak gold price of US$1,750/oz and 5% discount rate.
In our view, the decision to advance US$8m of profits to the government in Q1/13 indicates the company is under substantial pressure to show the economic benefit of the Sukari operation to the Egyptian government for fear of any adverse legal issues. We also believe this will not be recoverable and the company will have to continue paying a 50% share of profits from now on. This, we estimate, will equate to a c.US$50m payment in 2013 (nil previously) and US$131m in 2014 (vs US$63m previous estimate), resulting in a 64% and 26% reduction in net cash flow in 2014 and 2015."

irlee57 - 05 Apr 2013 09:15 - 2017 of 2354

nice to see a change in the downward spiral.

skinny - 09 Apr 2013 07:12 - 2018 of 2354

Q1 Preliminary Production Results

Centamin is pleased to announce preliminary production results from its Sukari Gold Mine ("Sukari") in Egypt for the quarter ended 31 March 2013.

Total gold production for the quarter was a record 87,016 ounces, a 77% increase on the corresponding quarter in 2012 and a 2% increase on Q4 2012. Formal guidance for the current year, provided on 14 March 2013, is 320,000 ounces gold at a cash operating cost of US$700 per ounce.

Open pit total material movement of 10,550kt increased 56% and ore production of 2,133kt was up 11% on Q4 2012. The underground mine delivered 119kt, up 6% on Q4 2012. The run of mine ore stockpile balance increased by 38kt to 759kt at the end of the period.

Quarterly throughput at the Sukari process plant was a record 1,402kt, a 37% increase on the prior year period and a 12% increase on Q4 2012; exceeding the nameplate annualised rate of 5 million tonnes. This performance was driven by continued high levels of productivity coupled with a reduced impact from stoppages compared with the previous quarter.

bhunt1910 - 09 Apr 2013 13:03 - 2019 of 2354

Up 5% - then down 5% - and on cracking results too. i FEAR IT IS GOING TO STAY IN DOLDRUMS UNTILTHIS COURT CASE IS RESOLVED.

My advice - buy now - shove it into your ISA or SIPP and come back in 12 - 18 months time when I reckon it will be back to the 100p mark. Ignore any short term dips. BWTFDIK

skinny - 09 Apr 2013 13:05 - 2020 of 2354

At least the brokers are consistent (not).

Canaccord Genuity Sell 43.91 45.80 38.00 38.00 Reiterates

Westhouse Securities Buy 43.91 45.80 65.00 65.00 Reiterates

Fox-Davies Sell 43.91 45.80 41.00 41.00 Reiterates

mystic - 16 Apr 2013 12:58 - 2021 of 2354

Share price at best of the day as >>>>>>>>>>>

Egypt and the International Monetary Fund failed to agree on terms for a $4.8 billion loan that could ease a worsening economic crisis in the Arab world's most populous nation.

After nearly two weeks of negotiations in Cairo, IMF mission chief Andreas Bauer, in a statement issued early on Tuesday, cited progress, notably in Egypt's efforts to better target fuel subsidies and broaden its revenue base.

"The mission made progress in the discussions with the Egyptian authorities on their economic programme and possible financial support from the IMF," Bauer said.

"Discussions with the authorities will continue with the objective of reaching agreement on a possible standby arrangement in support of Egypt."

Egyptian officials played down the setback, saying talks would continue this week in Washington, and in Cairo after that, and the two sides were closing in on a deal.

"We are travelling to the spring meetings in the next two days and are going to be there in the coming week and will complete the negotiations there, and after we return, the mission will come again for us to complete some of the negotiations," Planning Minister Ashraf al-Arabi, one of the Egyptian negotiators, said in a television interview.

"But the talks are difficult," he told the privately owned CBC channel.

Neither side said why agreement had eluded them but analysts said the ruling Muslim Brotherhood did not want to risk unpopular measures that could hit poor and middle-income Egyptians before parliamentary elections expected from October.

"I don't think they will do any meaningful reform before the elections. That's the bottom line," said Samir Radwan, who was the first finance minister after the overthrow of former President Hosni Mubarak in 2011..........

http://tvnz.co.nz/world-news/egypt-loan-talks-end-without-imf-deal-5408595

londongo - 25 Apr 2013 15:49 - 2022 of 2354

Is it the end of the downtrend?

Today has broken 40p and then 41, later 42 and now 43p
---------------------

About the clan shorting lately ( old sharecazy mob )

Zak and Tom are (to coin a Dirty Harry phrase), Legends in their own Minds. I don't know of anyone that follows them, though no doubt there are some. I'm sure that the two of them, along with the great donut eater, are just in it for themselves, there's nothing altruistic about their advice, save that the herd following them can help to move the price in their required direction and occassionally benefit at the same time.

londongo - 25 Apr 2013 16:00 - 2023 of 2354

Gold price rising again is helping

gold.gif

HARRYCAT - 26 Apr 2013 08:06 - 2024 of 2354

The Annual General Meeting will be held at The Royal Yacht Hotel, St Helier, Jersey, Channel Islands on Thursday 23rd May 2013 commencing at 12.30pm (Jersey time).

(Where's cynic........time for another golfing trip?)

skinny - 02 May 2013 07:38 - 2025 of 2354

Norges Bank > 5%

cynic - 02 May 2013 07:51 - 2026 of 2354

harry - just seen your post ..... a slightly odd venue for an AGM it must be said :-)

skinny - 10 May 2013 07:15 - 2027 of 2354

Egyptian Legal Proceedings Update

The Company has been informed that the first hearing in its appeal against the decision of the Egyptian Administrative Court on 30 October 2012, which sought to revoke Centamin's exploitation lease for the Sukari Gold Mine, shall be heard on 19 June 2013 before the Supreme Administrative Court of Egypt ("SAC").

Prior to such hearing, the Egyptian State Commissioner's Office has produced a report containing non-binding recommendations for SAC. Whilst these recommendations are not positive, the Company does not believe that they address the substantive merits of Centamin's appeal and as such the Company's grounds of appeal remain unchanged upon the initial review of the State Commissioners report.

The Company continues to prepare for the appeal hearing and shall continue to vigorously defend its rights to the Sukari Gold Mine. The recommendations of the State Commissioner's Office are advisory only and importantly Centamin notes that in its ruling on 20 March 2013, in enforcing its decision to suspend the ruling of the Administrative Court, SAC unanimously held that, "on the basis of the copy of the exploitation lease executed by the Minister of Petroleum presented to SAC, the annulment of such lease by the Administrative Court was likely to be cancelled upon the issuance of a judgment on the merits of the case."

As such pending the final outcome of the court process, Sukari continues to operate normally.

HARRYCAT - 10 May 2013 11:50 - 2028 of 2354

RBC comment today:
"State Commissioner’s Office recommendation negative, hearing scheduled for June – Centamin has received notice that the first hearing in its appeal against the decision to annul the exploitation lease for Sukari will be held by the Egyptian Supreme Administrative Court on the 19th June. Ahead of this hearing the State Commissioner’s Office has produced a report containing non binding recommendations to the court. This report was made available to the company yesterday evening and the recommendations are negative from the company’s perspective. Management believes that the report does not address the merits of the appeal, both in terms of the specific area of the initial lease having been gazetted in the appropriate manner by the Minister of Petroleum and the broader area of the fairness of the contract between the company and the state. Management has also noted that in the hearing on the 20th March, during which the judgement suspending the enforcement of the initial Administrative court judgement was made, the Supreme Administrative Court, having been presented with a copy of the exploitation lease indicated “that given the evidence of this approval the annulment of such lease is likely to be cancelled upon the issuance of a judgment on the merits of the case.” The exploitation lease was annulled on the basis that it had not been appropriately gazetted by the Minister of Petroleum; as the company has now provided a signed copy of the exploitation lease to the court we believe that on balance the annulment is ultimately likely to be overturned. There is no certainty that this will be the case, however, and we would expect the shares to be volatile until the court case is resolved.
Solid production in Q1, guidance maintained, expansion on track - Centamin reported solid Q1 production of 87 koz (+77% year on year) from the company's Sukari mine in Egypt. This was a good result and keeps Centamin on track to achieve its 2013 guidance of 320 koz at a cash cost for US$700/oz. The company has also confirmed that the expansion of the plant from 5 Mt/year to 10 Mt/year remains on track for complete commissioning by the end of the year.
Solid balance sheet, low all in sustaining costs - Centamin finished 2012 with US$147.1 million of cash and with US$97 million of outstanding capital expenditure for the plant expansion. The company started 2012 with US$164.2 million and had investing cash flows of -US$243.8 million during the year, including US$223.5 million of capital expenditure on the mine and plant. We believe that the company has low all-in sustaining costs of US$849/oz compared to the African peer group on US$1,224/oz
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