A thread created for the TA of charts on the LSE markets. (aim and plus included)
Beginners and advanced wellcome. Long or short, just post your views and lets
have some positive discussion. FIRE AWAY.

NB, UK indicies and sector charts plus FX can also to be included in posters analysis.

Money am instructions for posting a chart..http://www.moneyam.com/help/?page=charts

Kipper System 1 http://t.co/heOgs9b

nb, you may have to log in to get access to some of the links here below. Every one is free.


DAILY MORNING CHARLES STANLEY Traders Bulletin

http://www.charles-stanley.co.uk/traders-bulletin

Central Research Morning Report,

http://t.co/BTw64ZxW5e


RESOURCES

http://blog.tradersdaytrading.com/

http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school

http://www.cantos.com/masterclass

http://www.onlinetradingconcepts.com/TechnicalAnalysis/ZigZag.html

http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/http://www.stockmarket-coach.com/index.html

http://www.trade2win.com/knowledge/equities/

http://www.babypips.com/school


CHART SCREENERS

http://www.iii.co.uk/spreadbetting/type=technical

http://www.barchart.com

http://www.autochartist.com/

http://www.britishbulls.com/

I'm not au fait with charts but I notice LAD have been weak recently and go ex div later this month, is this a good bet? Sorry about that.
2517

The 2 x 2 Professional Traders System A Quick Outline Of What Top Traders Use As Money Management...... Risk/Reward Trading And What It Basicaly Means.

In my opinion after 25 years on the markets (more in fact) I came to the conclusion very quickly that to succeed it wasnt just picking good stocks that counted beneficially but more being able to manage your money, your ability to manage losing and winning positions in your portfolio. How much you stand to lose and win.

Thier is an obsession with private investors that stock picking is the be all and end all of success on the markets, THEY ARE WRONG.

So what are the most important investment/trading questions you have to face?

"How much money should I put on any one trade?".

Pro traders eg, Fund Managers practice and will inform you that success and money management is all about the "2 x 2 rule".

WHAT IS THE RULE?

Ensure your upside is at least twice your downside and never ever lose more than 2% of your trading pot in a single trade, ie 2 x 2.

We'l use company ABC stock as an example all figures rounded for ease of understanding.

ABC is trading at mid at £100 a share.

We start with £20,000 Capital Pot, and if we think ABC will go from £100 to a gain of £130 based on a chart resistance position (30% gain), then we should under the terms of the system not expect the stock to fall below £85 (15% loss) 2/1 ratio. And equally that the worst loss should total no more than 2% of your £20,000 capital pot, which is £400, so you should only buy £2670 of stock at £100 the present market price, (£400 is 15% of £2670). You would have a stop loss in place so that your position would be closed out if your £400 downside was touched.

The formula is P=TR/(E-X) where T is the size of the trade, P is the portfolio size (cash plus holdings) , R is 2%, E is the entry price and X is the predetermined stop-loss exit price.

Another way of looking at this is that you have £20,000 capital and you can only risk £400 loss on any one trade, that would then give you from the very start if you were spread betting 50 BETS.

ANOTHER WAY OF LOOKING AT THIS 2 x 2 RULE

You know you have at the very most £20,000 to trade with and have to keep to a strict none negotiable £400 loss ie, 2% of your capital pot. You cannot change this rule. But you can change the other side of the ratio the amount you are willing to bet on a single trade.

Some traders would be more aggresive and decide for each trade/bet they would risk at the outset £2000 per trade.

They spot a share they would like to climb on and get a " SET UP", mostly using TA and chart set ups. This time we call the stock XYZ.

XYZ as just passed through the £5.00 resistance at the end of the day in other words we have a Confirmation Set Up. The next level of resistance is £6.00 and that is our first SP target to reach so we decide to go for it, how many shares do we buy?.

Well we have a £2000 single pot to deal with and we know the stock on a S/Bet is £5 to buy therefore £5/£2000 would give us 400 shares and a profit of £400 as the SP hits our first target of £6.00.

We decide thier is far more in the stock so we place a trailing stop loss and let our bet run right up to £8.00 whare we are stopped out and return a profit of £1200. The point is we have kept to our trading rules on the downside which we always protect 100% because "without no capital we are out of the game", finito.

2 x 2 x 2 My HYBRID SYSTEM

Now onto my money management Hybrid System which I have been using for the last 12 months with great success.

Its a new entries/set up policy incorporated on the 2 x 2 system but fitted bespoke to my trading style.

The aim is to get rid of bad Set Ups far quicker than the 2 x 2 system so not incurring higher losses than neccessary.

The aim is to find stock with a spread of no more than 20 points per £1 spread bet, and then on top of this set a limit of 2.5% in good markets 3% in volatile bad markets of the total downside 2% you are prepared to lose of your total portfolio.

So eg, say we are using a £1 spread bet , the company DGF as a spread of £18 and my 2% total downside as per the 2 x 2 system is £1000, therefore £18 plus......... 3%/£1000 = £30..... total loss Im prepared to take on entering trade on first 24 hours = £48. I have tight stop loss attached and although I pick up more failures than normaly, I go onto let winners run and dogs kicked out far quicker and cheaper than previously.

Some will no doubt say Im not giving enough breathing space to the set up but dont forget on the first day or any day it is unusual for a stock SP to be down more than 3% unless we have news or MMs playing silly devils.

Right I hope that helps peeps with thier trading if you need any further info just get in touch but dont forget Id make a lousy teacher.

George Ill have a look at LAD and give you my neutral opinion.

Give me a few minutes.

Short Term Chart. Looks like support at 126p but if this gives way long term support on long term chart at 120p should prop up price as it as hit a support line on a few occasions.




Long term Chart.



FUNDIES

Ladbrokes PLC

FORECASTS

2014 2015

Date Rec Pre-tax (£) EPS (p) DPS (p) Pre-tax (£) EPS (p) DPS (p)

Davy Stockbrokers
10-09-14 None 9.80 8.90 6.40 8.90
Panmure Gordon
10-09-14 HOLD 107.00 10.40 8.90 88.80 8.64 8.90
Exane BNP Paribas
10-09-14 BUY 104.00 11.08 9.00 116.00 12.02 9.00
Peel Hunt LLP
10-09-14 SELL 104.15 10.10 8.90 81.32 7.53 8.90
Shore Capital
05-09-14 HOLD 105.10 10.20 8.60 93.10 9.00 8.60
Daniel Stewart
04-09-14 HOLD 142.40 13.40 9.20
Goodbody Stockbrokers
03-09-14 SELL 11.23 8.90 9.58 8.90
Numis Securities Ltd
12-08-14 HOLD 119.10 11.50 8.90 118.30 11.20 9.79
Investec Securities
23-07-14 HOLD 107.60 10.44 8.90 86.00 8.34 8.90
Canaccord Genuity Ltd
30-04-14 HOLD 112.10 10.90 8.90 89.90 8.80 8.90
Westhouse Securities
19-09-13 BUY

2014 2015
Pre-tax (£) EPS (p) DPS (p) Pre-tax (£) EPS (p) DPS (p)

Consensus 107.85 10.71 8.91 89.73 8.65 8.92
1 Month Change -3.07 -0.17 -0.00 -2.40 -0.52 -0.00
3 Month Change -6.94 -0.32 0.01 -3.57 -0.49 0.02

GROWTH
2013 (A) 2014 (E) 2015 (E)
Norm. EPS -40.49% -12.61% -19.26%
DPS 8.54% 0.16% 0.03%

INVESTMENT RATIOS
2013 (A) 2014 (E) 2015 (E)

EBITDA £238.50m £208.07m £187.61m
EBIT £145.90m £133.42m £112.88m
Dividend Yield 6.80% 6.82% 6.82%
Dividend Cover 1.38x 1.20x 0.97x
PER 10.67x 12.21x 15.12x
PEG -0.26f -0.97f -0.78f
Net Asset Value PS -37.38p 44.80p 42.40p

Fundies dont look special, I suppose thier is a dividend to be paid in med term.

Downside overal looks limited, just needs somethin to give it a kick up the backside.

gf I bought in today reasoning that there was (hopefully) more upside potential than downside, with the added bonus of a decent divi. Thank you very much for taking the time to reply with your post, it's very much appreciated, cheers.
2517

No probs,anytime George.

goldfinger

There's a lot to take in , am going to save and read it all later, I have been using a 2% stop and trailing it . I had a good 2 days trading BLNX after it broke out of the double bottom towards 40p. anyway , thanks again for your support.

MCRO at the base of an uptrend channel with momentum behind it . The ceiling is my first target. Just gone long.

Which shares will benefit and which will lose if Scotland gains independence?

Alders I suspect the whole market will dip if we get a Yes vote.

Even the Yanks are saying this could put us back to a 2008 style crash and bear market.

hmmmmm well my MCRO chart is knacked now after the news this morning. Cant be assed to re do it.

New High........

it would be meaningless for obvious reasons
strangely, traffic is very subdued at only a little over 100k

This Scotland thingy I reckon.

Most will stay out of the market until result is known.

Including myself. (famous last words)

Tonight on BBC2 9pm part 1 of part 2 documentary........."Traders: Millions By The Minute".

Gone long on PSON PEARSON. Historical P/E 20, forward P/E to 2015 falls to 15.5. Divi yield 4.62%.Strong momentum.

so much for staying out of the markets until after the referendum :-)

Yep I just couldnt help it. Looks such a good set up.

Lobbed a few MCRO off the top.

hard to determine whether or not MCRO has much more upside
it's not at all clear (to me) how much this t/o is worth

Been looking at new broker forecasts today and still no wiser.

Still 60p a share to come in november I think.