.

For anyone who has not read the Edison Falklands write up.

http://www.mediafire.com/?2k3td4ffx531a76

.

Thanks PP. Big tick to you for putting the research up. All very exciting with a lot to play for.

Well Pro got it wrong with RKH selling at 300p so he say's, and now he is wrong with old investors and risk , a lot of us own our own house's and have final salary pension's and made a lot of dosh in the stockmarket while he was still in nappies.

Mind you I did have some big loses when the dot com bubble burst , funny thing is it was a blue chip company GEC that i lost most on.

aldwick. I sold RKH at 300p and it went down to 170p.

How can that be wrong ? Especially as I got GKP at 120p and been selling at 350p+.

LOL :) All the time (a long time) it was below 300p I was making money elsewhere. Had I kept RKH until now I would have made a lot less money than I have now on other stocks instead of RKH :) !!


coeliac1, I like the Edison report, it confirms what I have been saying that all the new work means Loligo and Scotia are 20% Chance of Success.

Been a lot of liars posting its only 10% CoS on other web sites.

It's risky but the number of prospects makes it interesting...a dozen or more...so the chances increase with that....

10% or 20%; it's still long odds

Check out their website Cynic...well worth a visit....104$ for WTI nearly...120$ for Brent....Iranian warships just gone through the suez canal....they really know how to the the world peace that lot...and oil high....I bet we see an oil spike now...plus $2 on monday perhaps ?...

fogl i already hold for my sins as well as rkh .... why do i need top throw my money at 10/1 chancer (5/1 if you're really brave)? ..... if bor flukes it, as did rkh, then there'll be plenty of time and upside to climb on board after the event, but both fogl and rkh will get plenty of collateral benefit in any case

=============

by the way, a big article on FI in ST Biz section today

Darwin prospect presently being drilled by BOR does have a good chance of success. Plenty of DHI's including flat spot. Now that could be gas to water, who knows, but certainly something of interest down there and with them having 3D seismic the well location will be optimal to test it. If there is something there then they should be striking it at a good net pay location.

Going to be interesting, if BOR do strike at Darwin a lot of money is going to be moved out of many other AIM oily stocks and into BOR and FOGL.

We could also see, if BOR strike oil, someone wanting to farm into FOGL before Loligo starts, so potential for farm in news in late late March/April/early May. That farm in deal, should it happen, could open the door to a 3rd drill by FOGL this time around.

if if if if if ad nauseam

Get on out in the sunshine and then take mrs out for lunch cyners.,.

am currently in the office instead of playing golf all because poxy s-in-law (beloved's sister) from usa is over ..... i only have to do sunday lunch about 3 times a year, and this is one of those occasions

He can't log on to money am often then....

Thats what stock markets are about "if if if if".

You bet on the "if" happening, and if it does you make money.

The "if" can be anything, from increased sales at Tesco, to more profits at Barclays, to BOR striking oil at Darwin, to RKH being able to farm out etc........


A little bit silly to say that cynic......... thats what investing is all about, taking a chance on an IF.

Fogl are a long shot compared with investing in many companies that are far safer,
but risk V Reward.
When I first invested in Rockhopper it was also around risk factor of 10% to 20%, and look where they are headed. If I took my money and ran now, I would be several hundred % up, so using the analogy of equalization, if I put the same money into Fogl as I put in Rkh and lost the lot, I would still be in net profit of both.
And of course no one de-risked Rkh, whereas Rkh have to a extent de-risked Fogl.
I actually only have a small amount in Fogl, but when my investing pot increases, I intend to have a lot more.
Surely anyone risk adverse, to the extent of not investing in Fogl would not have invested in Rkh.
As for Bor, you could use the same argument!

regards Greek.

i am not risk averse, but that doesn't mean that i want to go luge or downhill ski racing either

Good answer!

If you use Edison's figures, just before the Sea Lion well - after the DES failures, the market was valuing Rockhopper at $1.4/boe of risked resources. Based on a 25% CoS, the market is currently valuing FOGL shares at $0.2/boe of risked resources, suggesting a possible 600% upside before the wells are spudded.

And that is, as it says, just to be valued as RKH were straight after DES failures and prior to them drilling Sea Lion for the first time.

So targets of 240p to 360p for FOGL pre-Loligo spud are not wide of the mark. Those who have the guts to hold will benefit, thats for sure.

If you use Edison's figures, just before the Sea Lion well - after the DES failures, the market was valuing Rockhopper at $1.4/boe of risked resources. Based on a 25% CoS, the market is currently valuing FOGL shares at $0.2/boe of risked resources, suggesting a possible 600% upside before the wells are spudded.

And that is, as it says, just to be valued as RKH were straight after DES failures and prior to them drilling Sea Lion for the first time.

So targets of 240p to 360p for FOGL pre-Loligo spud are not wide of the mark. Those who have the guts to hold will benefit, thats for sure.

IF could mean a film