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ptholden has in fact never put in any good researchs or facts in his postings.

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As idiotic as ever hlyeo, how's justyi? Still spouting the same crap as crap or has she been retired from active duty?
I have to admit you accusing anyone of not posting research is about as hypocritical as it gets, all you've ever done is copied and pasted, which isn't research or stated a stock is going up or down without any given thought behind the claim, invariably you get it wrong. Do jog on silly girl.

One of the exciting things I think about Loligo is when you look at the drill location to the actual targets, and appreciate the drill hit the very edges.... well.

Rightly or wrongly most people consider P10 to be the big area, 10% chance of it being good. P50 to be a smaller area than P10, but with a 50% chance of being good and then P90 to be a very small area, with a 90% chance of being good.

So, putting that into Loligo drilling location, well they appear to have hit all reservoirs in the P10 location, well away from sweet spots, right on the edges.

And yet they have net pay, albeit marginal and they have strong gas shows of C1/2/3/4/5.

If you assume therefore that the pre-drill P50 of 4.7 BBOE recoverable (25TCF recoverable dry gas basis) and assume the actual is going to be bigger than P50, but perhaps a tad under P10 and then you add on T5 additional reservoir which seems thick.........and was not in the original estimates because nobody knew it was there............

You can easily see why some people suggest Loligo could end up over 30 TCF recoverable or even over 50 TCF recoverable in size (circa 5 BBOE to 8.5 BBOE recoverable).

The market chooses to give no value - fine by me, if it can continue to assign no value for Loligo for another 9 months I will happily add more and wait for the Loligo update once 3D is done and processed and integrated with other data for a nice "Loligo" update sometime 2nd half 2013.

Proselenes: Are we saying that it will be well into 2013 before we get any feedback (RNS) on the Loliigo samples / data?

Gerponville, most surely.

2nd half 2013 is my estimate. There is no point giving any update until the 3D is done and processed and integrated........... so 2nd half 2013 imo.

You have to remember FOGL are fully funded, they do not need to raise money. So there is no need to shout and scream about the potential, or rush to do anything.

Its only companies in dire need of fund raising who rush and then shout and scream........... ;)

ptholden, I didn't criticise proselenes. He did good research and u should be proud of him.

hlyeo if its not in a ABC book i find it hard you could read it let alone understand it

Some info as until they get fluid samples Loligo could be "wet gas" or could be "condensate" discovery.

http://www.fekete.com/software/feketeharmony/media/webhelp/HTML_Files/Reference_Material/General_Concepts/Reservoir_Fluid_Types.htm

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As the title suggests........One for the Gamblers (Daily Mail)!

SHARE TIPS - ONE FOR THE GAMBLERS: Oil and gas exploration company making a return By Graeme Dickson, Market Trader At Optiva Securities
PUBLISHED: 15:54 GMT, 26 September 2012 | UPDATED: 15:54 GMT, 26 September 2012
Comments (0) Share
‘If at first you don’t succeed try, try again’ so the saying goes and this is particularly appropriate for exploration companies continuously looking for resources, missing the perfect drilling spot and having another go somewhere else.

No doubt many high risk oil investors on the AIM market will have come a cropper over the last year with big share price falls from the likes of Borders & Southern (BOR), Chariot Oil & Gas (CHAR) and Petro Matad (MATD) to mention a few, following announcements of dusters or high concentrations of gas, of which the world seems awash with these days.

A company that has also experienced its first exploration disappointment but following the recent share price fall now has more than half of its market cap in cash and has excellent high-risk exploration upside is that of Falkland Oil & Gas (FOGL):
Share tip: Graeme Dickson says that Falkland Oil & Gas is definitely one for the gamblers
Falkland Oil & Gas (FOGL) explores for hydrocarbons in the Southern and Eastern basins of the Falkland Islands and has recently drilled at the Loligo well where it encountered gas, but not the liquid condensate type that its peer Borders & Southern discovered and as a result the shares were sold off.

Analysis of the results is being carried out before making the decision to drill a second well at Loligo.

In the meantime the drill rig has been moved to Scotia and yesterday it spudded (the drill pierced the surface of the seabed). The well is a mid-Cretaceous fan prospect at a target depth of 5,000 metres, which is estimated to contain 1.092 billion barrels of oil (if successful).

FOGL has a 40 per cent interest in the licence and operations are expected to take 75 days. Its partner in this well is Noble Energy, a US $16billion company who will pay for 60 per cent of the drilling costs plus US $25million (£15.3million) to FOGL and pay FOGL for 60 per cent of the costs it incurred during 2011.

Now here is the crux of the idea. If successful, it has been estimated by analysts at Mirabaud that Scotia could be worth 300p a share.

If the well is a duster, then, given its 40-42p in cash per share, the downside, in theory, is about 40 per cent in the near term. Should it be successful and goes to plan then potentially you have 330 per cent upside. It is a real gamble and the probability is that it will be a duster.

Alternatively you can wait until the news comes out but if oil is struck, expect to pay a hefty premium amid some uncertainty of timing if the stock encounters a strong spout of profit taking. Of course if its gas or a duster then you will probably be as pleased as punch that you watched from the sidelines.

Even if Scotia is unsuccessful FOGL and its partners still have the Nimrod Complex and the Vinson prospect in the Tertiary Channel Play, the Hero prospect in the Mid Cretaceous Fan Play where Scotia is and the Inflexible or Endeavour prospect in the Springhill


Read more: http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/midasextra/article-2208975/SHARE-TIPS--ONE-FOR-THE-GAMBLERS-Oil-gas-exploration-company-making-return.html#ixzz27eWtr7j5
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Gerponville I i think that artical about sums it up.

Post 2077 -"So, from today, a Scotia duster will see the share price down 50%. A strike at Scotia and you should be looking at 800% rise given the complex which houses Scotia."

Still not seen anything to back up a 800% price rise if Scotia strikes oil. A potential 300% upside as above is more approriate I think with a chance of success being around 16%.

I'm sure the optimists here will disagree..

I thought you are a oilman, marky.

Hi shortie,

I like to think I am a realist, or at least I try to be, so being as practical as possible and thinking with the head, not the heart, I agree re the success rate of around 16%.
As to a 300% sp rise being more practical than 800% on an oil strike I think it all depends on several issues.
1 The political climate in oil producing countries, especially Iran.
2 The state of the Eurozone, (yes it can only get worse).
3 The type, size and quality of the discovery.

1 and 2 could easily become worse than at present within weeks, never mind a couple of months.

3 of course will be the cruncher.

Post 2131.
Very true Marky, very true.

I think this best way of thinking is : if that strike oil : fine...if not stay put for a year or so.....be prepared for a longterm investment rather than in and out with a bad loss....there are so many prospects that oil, condensate or wet gas will in the end be worth getting out of the ground....or stay on the sidelines and jump in when possible....

Itchy fingers RF?

No.....I reckon that with the results from Loligo coming in a few months plus seismic....the sp will hover around what it is today regardles of a duster from Scotia.....if it is a duster ; then the sp will drop followed by recovery back to present levels....so this drill is priced in for nothing as long as you include a few months wait.....

http://www.globes.co.il/serveen/globes/docview.asp?did=1000787276

It's not how much gas, but where

A new discovery in the Falkland Islands outdoes Israel's Leviathan reserve for size, but that isn't necessarily reflected in the price.

27 September 12 19:20, Amiram Barkat
inShare

First surprise: Israeli gas reserve Leviathan is, as is well known, the biggest deep-water gas discovery in the past decade. Then again, maybe it isn't. Over the Jewish New Year, Leviathan lost the title to a new reserve, discovered on the other side of the world. The reserve is about 100 kilometers east of the Falkland Islands, in a license area known as Loligo. The amount of gas and oil in the reserve has not yet been announced, but, according to preliminary estimates, made before drilling commenced, it could hold 25 TCF (trillion cubic feet) of natural gas, which compares with just 17-20 TCF for Leviathan.

The discovery of a new gas reserve of this order of size in Israeli waters would presumably have sent the Tel Aviv Stock Exchange into hysteria. Take for example the Ratio partnership, which holds 15% of Leviathan. This small partnership, which has practically no other assets besides the Leviathan license, has a market cap on the stock exchange of about NIS 2 billion. This market cap expresses investors' expectations of sales of gas to the domestic market and of exports to countries in the Far East and Europe. What should be the value of a company that holds 75% of a reserve 50% bigger than Leviathan? You can only guess.

Luckily, Falkland Oil and Gas (FOGL) holds exactly those rights in the new super reserve Loligo. As if that were not enough, this anonymous company holds rights in a group of Northern Area licenses (40%) and Southern Area licenses (52.5%) in Falklands waters that have not yet been explored. The next drilling, which will take place in the northern licenses, is meant to discover an oil target that could contain 1 billion barrels.

This is where the second surprise comes in. Falkland Oil and Gas is traded on London's AIM exchange at a market cap of £220 million, which is just $350 million, or NIS 1.4 billion. This valuation also includes a handsome cash balance. In the company's financial report for the first half of 2012, it estimates that at the end of its current drilling campaign, it will be left with cash of not less than $200 million.

It is interesting to note that the company's share price has actually fallen since the first announcement of the discovery. This is because investors had expected the discovery of a 4.7 billion-barrel oil reserve, and were disappointed to hear of the gas that had been discovered instead of the black gold.

Now comes the third surprise: it turns out that the potential of the Falklands licenses has been spotted by on-the-ball gas exploration companies. On August 6, Falkland Oil and Gas announced that it had agreed to sell 35% of the rights in its licenses (except for Loligo and Nimrod-Garrodia) to none other than Noble Energy, the US partner in all the Israeli gas reserves.

Another partner well-known in Israel that was quick to take a share of all the licenses of Falkland Oil and Gas was Italy's Edison, which holds 12.5-25% of the licenses. Edison has also expressed in entering the Israeli market, and it is a partner with Delek Group Ltd. (TASE: DLEKG) in bidding for licenses in Cyprus.

The Falkland Islands are remembered for the war over control of them between Britain and Argentina in 1982. Uncertainty still hovers over the islands in the South Atlantic, and this presumably affects the pricing of the risks in the gas discoveries industry. Other risk factors are the distance from target markets for natural gas, and the stormy ocean that makes operation of floating production and liquefaction installations difficult. But still, even taking all this into account, the Israeli Leviathan gas reserve seems expensive in comparison with its distant Falklands counterpart. That too, however, is relative. Two months ago, we reported on the rights held by Cove Energy in gas results offshore from Mozambique, sold at a price several times higher than the market's valuation of Leviathan. It turns out that pricing of gas reserves is mainly a matter of geography.

Published by Globes [online], Israel business news - www.globes-online.com - on September 27, 2012

Good find Proselenes.
Makes mind boggling figures if it all turn good!