.

Seems Noble are convinced there is oil to be had. The following is an extract from Friday's Telegraph:
"..explorers around the Falklands were having a good day, spurred higher by Noble Energy which said there may be 12 billion barrels of oil equivalent in the area".
I don't know on what they have based this prediction but it could indicate encouraging shows with current drilling.

grevis, 12 billion is only in the top few leads...... there are over 20 other leads, including the massive "Diomedea" prospect which by itself is over 5 billion recoverable barrels potential.

Imagine if they do find oil at Scotia! and how much it'l de-risk a large area and the Diomedea location..And with over 20 leads it could be seriously mega.. But of course you'd be talking a few years down the line for all the prospects to be evaluated..

Rumours might start to flow here soon, as I presume drilling is on going and we are getting closer and closer to perhaps first signs of hydrocarbons....

EU Short selling restrictions in from 1st Nov.

This is why you see "stock on loan" figures going up October - all the "naked short" positions must now be covered with borrowed stock, so lots of borrowing going on to cover positions now.

Shorts must be declared to the market at 0.5% level, and every 0.1% increase thereafter they must declare again to the market - so there will be transparency now on who is short.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/1a5a57c4-1495-11e2-aa93-00144feabdc0.html

Warning on EU short-selling restrictions

By Vanessa Kortekaas and Brooke Masters

EU restrictions on short selling, due to take effect next month, threaten to reduce liquidity in UK small-cap stocks and prevent small businesses from raising capital, market participants have warned.

The regulations, which come into force on November 1, are intended to address concerns that short selling – betting that shares will fall in price, by selling borrowed holdings and then buying them back cheaply – exacerbates market downturns.

Under the rules, investors will have to disclose their short positions and settle their short trades in four days – rather than 30 days as currently required – with large fines for failing to settle on time.

However, brokers have expressed concerns that the shorter settlement time will discourage market makers from taking positions in small- and medium- sized enterprises.

“This is a regulation that has gone wrong,” said John Barrass, deputy chief executive of the Association of Private Client Investment Managers and Stockbrokers (Apcims). “We believe that there may be quite damaging consequences [of the regulation] if those firms which make a market in these stocks find it not worthwhile doing so in future,” Mr Barrass added.

Winterflood, Close Brothers’ market maker for UK retail brokers, said that while it supported more transparency on short selling, the regulation has “created unintended consequences” for the small-cap end of the UK market, by placing an economic burden on the market makers that provide liquidity to it.

Julian Palfreyman, Winterflood’s chief executive, said the impact on liquidity could affect small- and medium- sized enterprises by making it harder for them to tap the equity market as a source of finance.

Market participants have been in discussions with the Financial Services Authority and LCH.Clearnet, the Anglo-French clearing house, over the implementation of the rules.

A person familiar with the matter said there had been intense debate in recent weeks about how the rules could be applied in the UK without negatively affecting liquidity in the market.

One possibility is a reduction in the fines for settlement after four days, which would effectively increase the settlement periods for UK stocks.

“People didn’t really cotton on or understand what the impact of [the regulation] was going to be,” the person said.

However, small changes to how the rules are applied in the UK may not be sufficient for all market makers.

“If the improvement isn’t enough to satisfy the market makers then they will pull out of making markets in particular stocks,” said another person close to the discussions.

.

http://europa.eu/rapid/press-release_MEMO-11-713_en.htm

..................How does the Regulation enhance the transparency of short selling?

Transparency is key in ensuring the efficient functioning and monitoring of financial markets. So the Regulation provides for several measures to enhance transparency in short selling for shares and government debt.

- for shares:

For EU shares the provisions to enhance transparency are largely based on the two tier model recommended by CESR (the Committee of European Securities Regulators, the predecessor of ESMA) in its report in March 2010. At a lower threshold (0.2% of the issued share capital) notification of a short position will be made only to the regulator and at a higher threshold (0.5%) short positions will be disclosed to the market. Notification to regulators will enable them to monitor and, if necessary, investigate short selling that may pose systemic risks or be abusive. Publication of information to the market will provide useful information to other market users and act as a disincentive to aggressive short selling strategies.

The Regulation also calls for consideration to be given by the Commission, in the context of the revision of the Markets in Financial Instruments Directive (MiFID), to whether inclusion by investment firms of information about short sales in transaction reports to competent authorities would provide useful supplementary information to enable competent authorities to monitor levels of short selling..............

http://blogs.platts.com/2012/10/22/falklands_isles/

.

Just goes to show how "in demand" gas is..........


http://www.upstreamonline.com/live/article1268178.ece

Woodside 'submits bid' for Leviathan



By Steve Marshall and news reports 22 October 2012 09:47 GMT

Offer by Aussie independent 'above market value' for giant gas discovery off Israel

Woodside Petroleum is reported to have submitted a top-dollar bid for a substantial stake in the giant Leviathan gas discovery off Israel that is significantly higher than its market value.

The undisclosed offer by the Australian independent for a 30% interest reflects a $7.5 billion value for Leviathan, which is about 50% above analysts’ estimates of between $4.7 billion and $5.5 billion for the gas field, according to the Globes financial newspaper.

Partners in the discovery confirmed in a statement issued on Monday that Woodside had made a bid as part of an ongoing strategic process to find an international partner to help finance development of the find, expected to come on stream in 2017.

US player Noble Energy holds a 39.66% stake in Leviathan, Israel’s Delek Group has 45.34% through units Avner Oil & Gas and Delek Drilling, and Ratio Oil Exploration is on 15%.

The Leviathan field, discovered in 2010, has an estimated 17 trillion cubic feet of gas, making it the largest deep-water natural gas find of the past decade.

As well as Woodside, Russian gas giant Gazprom was reported to be a leading contender for a stake, while Korea Gas Corporation was also said to be in the running.

Globes said the year-long process for finding a partner for Leviathan is due to end within the next few weeks, with Woodside seen as a prime candidate given its track record of developing liquefied natural gas projects off north-west Australia.

No news here ?....strange....must be getting close to target zone now...

This is just like before RKH's Sealion discovery in terms of no news...nothing...or is this going to be another gassy story ?...

60p looks to be a fair level to add, ready for the mad surge up pre-RNS. Given that the market has been in decline for the last few days but the FOGL sp hasn't slipped too far, 60p would seem like a reasonable support level.

This has to be either a gas or an oil discovery this time because the AVO (seismic) is very, very strong !.....if it is gas then it will make gas extraction commercial when tied in with other discoveries.....if it's oil : then anything's possible...but I'm convinced we shall have either one or the other !...perhaps if it's gas the sp will drop but not for long as the area is extremely promising overall ....conclusion : worth a serious punt !...

i confess i still do not agree that a gas find is "good news", but you may be right that the odds of finding hydrocarbons of any kind are quite possible better than the norm of 5/1 against

i'm afraid you'll need to DYOR as some are so fond of saying, but while the market for LNG will assuredly grow - it burns very clean etc - it is all very undeveloped at this moment - e.g. i think there are only 4 vessels worldwide that are currently equipped to use LNG

If they keep on finding large commercial amounts of gas like off east africa : it just has to be good news !....at the moment we are importing from Qatar through Wales vast quantities...if this can within a decade be switched to the falklands then how can it not be good news as the distance to bring the stuff is only a little bit further....the market cap of FOGL is only 200 million with huge potential.....when you look through the ftse and aim companies and you see ridiculous companies with twice that market cap : you just have to say that this is a massively undervalued company !...

differing views welcome ......

do not forget that qatar has huge amounts of oil as well as gas, and more to the point, already has all the port and other infrastructure in place ..... thus it is very easy and comparatively cheap to move the gas (and other oil derivatives)

as it stands, FI in general have very little more than hope on which to rest its case

Oil and a sp around the 240p level. That's all I want. Keep it simple!

if fogl find decent quantities of oil, then the whole FI game changes ..... argentina will start making lots of belligerent noises for sure :-) ...... gas? you know my views

My timeline is :


Loligo progress was 3rd August spud - 10th Sept at 3900 metres. Loligo mud line was at 1381 metres.

So, 38 days the average rate was 3900 depth less 1381 mud line divided by 38 days = 66 metres per day average rate including casing runs etc...


Scotia spud was 25th September. Mud line at Scotia is 1762 meters.

Target is circa 4900 meters and TD at 5198 meters.

Based on 66 meters per day from the 1762 meters mud line.

Target will be hit in 47 days (4900 - 1762 / 66 = 47.5 days)

TD at 52 days (5198 - 1762 / 66 = 52 days)

47 days from 25th September is Sun 11th Nov. 52 days is Fri 16th Nov.

So week commencing Monday 19th November should see "initial wireline results" later in that week, IMO.


Casing runs will take longer with a deeper well, so its all very rough but should not be far out.

........and the lemmings will start to return around 10 days in adance of the TD, so I would expect the sp to start showing movement on increased volume around the 1st Nov, which isn't that far away!

the lemmings may have a touch of jaundice after the last disappointment