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60p looks to be a fair level to add, ready for the mad surge up pre-RNS. Given that the market has been in decline for the last few days but the FOGL sp hasn't slipped too far, 60p would seem like a reasonable support level.

This has to be either a gas or an oil discovery this time because the AVO (seismic) is very, very strong !.....if it is gas then it will make gas extraction commercial when tied in with other discoveries.....if it's oil : then anything's possible...but I'm convinced we shall have either one or the other !...perhaps if it's gas the sp will drop but not for long as the area is extremely promising overall ....conclusion : worth a serious punt !...

i confess i still do not agree that a gas find is "good news", but you may be right that the odds of finding hydrocarbons of any kind are quite possible better than the norm of 5/1 against

i'm afraid you'll need to DYOR as some are so fond of saying, but while the market for LNG will assuredly grow - it burns very clean etc - it is all very undeveloped at this moment - e.g. i think there are only 4 vessels worldwide that are currently equipped to use LNG

If they keep on finding large commercial amounts of gas like off east africa : it just has to be good news !....at the moment we are importing from Qatar through Wales vast quantities...if this can within a decade be switched to the falklands then how can it not be good news as the distance to bring the stuff is only a little bit further....the market cap of FOGL is only 200 million with huge potential.....when you look through the ftse and aim companies and you see ridiculous companies with twice that market cap : you just have to say that this is a massively undervalued company !...

differing views welcome ......

do not forget that qatar has huge amounts of oil as well as gas, and more to the point, already has all the port and other infrastructure in place ..... thus it is very easy and comparatively cheap to move the gas (and other oil derivatives)

as it stands, FI in general have very little more than hope on which to rest its case

Oil and a sp around the 240p level. That's all I want. Keep it simple!

if fogl find decent quantities of oil, then the whole FI game changes ..... argentina will start making lots of belligerent noises for sure :-) ...... gas? you know my views

My timeline is :


Loligo progress was 3rd August spud - 10th Sept at 3900 metres. Loligo mud line was at 1381 metres.

So, 38 days the average rate was 3900 depth less 1381 mud line divided by 38 days = 66 metres per day average rate including casing runs etc...


Scotia spud was 25th September. Mud line at Scotia is 1762 meters.

Target is circa 4900 meters and TD at 5198 meters.

Based on 66 meters per day from the 1762 meters mud line.

Target will be hit in 47 days (4900 - 1762 / 66 = 47.5 days)

TD at 52 days (5198 - 1762 / 66 = 52 days)

47 days from 25th September is Sun 11th Nov. 52 days is Fri 16th Nov.

So week commencing Monday 19th November should see "initial wireline results" later in that week, IMO.


Casing runs will take longer with a deeper well, so its all very rough but should not be far out.

........and the lemmings will start to return around 10 days in adance of the TD, so I would expect the sp to start showing movement on increased volume around the 1st Nov, which isn't that far away!

the lemmings may have a touch of jaundice after the last disappointment

Nope. Very short memories and always up for a short term punt, imo. Bring 'em on! ;o)

The Timeline given by Noble is more exciting though, if (and its still a big IF) Scotia does strike oil Noble will move their drilling schedules around and make a rig available for appraisal drilling from Q4 2013.

They show continuous appraisal/explo (and also development) drilling non stop from Q4 2013 onwards should Scotia strike oil.

Fingers crossed.




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I'm still holding some long futures here.

Back in from 61.75p soooooooooooooo please ramp away Pro

As to rates of progress - diagram below. Some say we are doing very well, perhaps a week ahead of schedule and drilling will be complete around 10th Nov.

If "Loligo" rate of progress is achieved then TD should be around 17th Nov.

Well operations of 75 days includes allocation for 7 to 10 days of wireline and formation testing, 14 days for P&A, 2 days for pack up and rig and moved out of drill zone area.



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Scotia well update



Drilling of the Scotia well had been proceeding to plan and was ahead of schedule by approximately three days. A routine test on the blow-out preventer (BOP) revealed an equipment malfunction. The BOP has now been brought to surface in order to replace the failed component. In the light of problems encountered by a previous operator, FOGL had commissioned an extensive and independent examination of the BOP prior to the commencement of drilling. The recent malfunction is related to a part that had been used without problems during the drilling of the Loligo well and had been successfully tested earlier on the Scotia well.



The rig will be on a zero day rate whilst the repairs are being undertaken, although other costs will continue to be incurred and we will provide an update of costs after the well has been completed. We expect the repair work to take approximately 2 weeks to complete and as a result, there is likely to be a commensurate delay in reaching the total depth of the Scotia well.

3D and well update.

3D surveys commissioned and looks like a 2 week delay to Scotia. So now looking perhaps 1st December instead of 17th Nov for TD.

Here is the news of the delay, license extensions and 3D contracts.

http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201210251000025183P

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They probably will save 3 million quid as a result of the zero rate charge as it is not their fault......but it looks like there is gas or oil down there for sure....as we have found gas before perhaps gas it is...but there is always a chance that crude in quantities could be discovered....the AVO shows liquids...so...condensate ?..oil...? hope it's not water...

No.... they still have to pay circa 400K US$ for all the other services, so this delay will cost in total about 4m to 5m US$ extra cost. Rig rate is only just over half the actual costs of drilling.