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Oil and a sp around the 240p level. That's all I want. Keep it simple!

if fogl find decent quantities of oil, then the whole FI game changes ..... argentina will start making lots of belligerent noises for sure :-) ...... gas? you know my views

My timeline is :


Loligo progress was 3rd August spud - 10th Sept at 3900 metres. Loligo mud line was at 1381 metres.

So, 38 days the average rate was 3900 depth less 1381 mud line divided by 38 days = 66 metres per day average rate including casing runs etc...


Scotia spud was 25th September. Mud line at Scotia is 1762 meters.

Target is circa 4900 meters and TD at 5198 meters.

Based on 66 meters per day from the 1762 meters mud line.

Target will be hit in 47 days (4900 - 1762 / 66 = 47.5 days)

TD at 52 days (5198 - 1762 / 66 = 52 days)

47 days from 25th September is Sun 11th Nov. 52 days is Fri 16th Nov.

So week commencing Monday 19th November should see "initial wireline results" later in that week, IMO.


Casing runs will take longer with a deeper well, so its all very rough but should not be far out.

........and the lemmings will start to return around 10 days in adance of the TD, so I would expect the sp to start showing movement on increased volume around the 1st Nov, which isn't that far away!

the lemmings may have a touch of jaundice after the last disappointment

Nope. Very short memories and always up for a short term punt, imo. Bring 'em on! ;o)

The Timeline given by Noble is more exciting though, if (and its still a big IF) Scotia does strike oil Noble will move their drilling schedules around and make a rig available for appraisal drilling from Q4 2013.

They show continuous appraisal/explo (and also development) drilling non stop from Q4 2013 onwards should Scotia strike oil.

Fingers crossed.




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I'm still holding some long futures here.

Back in from 61.75p soooooooooooooo please ramp away Pro

As to rates of progress - diagram below. Some say we are doing very well, perhaps a week ahead of schedule and drilling will be complete around 10th Nov.

If "Loligo" rate of progress is achieved then TD should be around 17th Nov.

Well operations of 75 days includes allocation for 7 to 10 days of wireline and formation testing, 14 days for P&A, 2 days for pack up and rig and moved out of drill zone area.



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Scotia well update



Drilling of the Scotia well had been proceeding to plan and was ahead of schedule by approximately three days. A routine test on the blow-out preventer (BOP) revealed an equipment malfunction. The BOP has now been brought to surface in order to replace the failed component. In the light of problems encountered by a previous operator, FOGL had commissioned an extensive and independent examination of the BOP prior to the commencement of drilling. The recent malfunction is related to a part that had been used without problems during the drilling of the Loligo well and had been successfully tested earlier on the Scotia well.



The rig will be on a zero day rate whilst the repairs are being undertaken, although other costs will continue to be incurred and we will provide an update of costs after the well has been completed. We expect the repair work to take approximately 2 weeks to complete and as a result, there is likely to be a commensurate delay in reaching the total depth of the Scotia well.

3D and well update.

3D surveys commissioned and looks like a 2 week delay to Scotia. So now looking perhaps 1st December instead of 17th Nov for TD.

Here is the news of the delay, license extensions and 3D contracts.

http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201210251000025183P

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They probably will save 3 million quid as a result of the zero rate charge as it is not their fault......but it looks like there is gas or oil down there for sure....as we have found gas before perhaps gas it is...but there is always a chance that crude in quantities could be discovered....the AVO shows liquids...so...condensate ?..oil...? hope it's not water...

No.... they still have to pay circa 400K US$ for all the other services, so this delay will cost in total about 4m to 5m US$ extra cost. Rig rate is only just over half the actual costs of drilling.

Yes there are bound to be expenses but the rig daily rate is astronomical so at least that bit is saved....it goes with the oil industry...delays are just part of the game.....

If you average it out they were 3 days ahead (saving 3m US$) and now will have to pay "other costs" whilst the rig is on zero rate for 12 to 14 days.

If they hit in excess of half a billion barrels.....what the hell ?....anyway...the company is nowhere near valued what it should be...so even if it's just gas...with the prospects and surveys coming up...there will be a rebound...

Most preferable to have OIL from Scotia without a doubt, otherwise you'd get the same response as at Loligo(if it was a gas find), and the s/p would only appreiciate once all test had been done and reported as to the size of find etc..

Exactly.....but worth a punt ...as long as you can stomach a drop and be patient enough to wait for a rebound which will come...