http://www.falklands-oil.com/

http://www.rockhopperexploration.co.uk

http://www.argosresources.com/




Rockhopper was established in 2004 with a strategy to invest in and undertake an offshore oil exploration programme in the North Falkland Basin. It was floated on AIM in August 2005. Rockhopper was the first company to make a commercial oil discovery in the Falklands. Today Rockhopper is the largest acreage holder in the North Falkland Basin, with interests in the Greater Mediterranean region.

I just love the "significant upside potential" words :)


http://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/19346/argos-resources-to-join-aims-falkland-oil-explorers-19346.html


...........Of the four junior explorers currently active in the Falklands, Rockhopper has enjoyed the most success to date, with its Sea Lion discovery being the highlight of Falklands exploration story to date. The Sea Lion 14/10-2 struck oil early in May, and later in June further analysis showed that the well had discovered medium gravity oil.

The analysis confirmed the first contingent resource in the Falklands, and upped the recoverable resource estimates from 170mmbbls (million barrels) to 242mmbbls with significant upside potential..............

For RKH and DES, If Ernest is a duster then the sp will slide only to recover strongly upon Sea Lion testing, so if it is a duster it will be a great time on the dip to get some more or if it is a success....well : 5 possibly....for Rockhopper anyway...

Pro's woken up...off he goes again or is he chav.....i don't know
Agree with you cynic, am in with reasonable holding but won't be increasing at the mo.

actually reduced my holding a bit earlier today for no blood ... still o'weight but not so badly

Nothing is a certainty in Oil explorers so I agree that you should only hold what you are happy with through the drilling results....I have had a 'proven and probable' drill come up with the wrong result in the past, let alone the 40% ish of Ernie being a strike!

Its worth remembering that the "experts" value Sea Lion in its present form (not flow tested and not yet proved commercially viable) at 319p per share.

That valuation once a flow test is done and the producability is proven, should rise to circa 750p per share just for Sea Lion.

Whether Ernest is a success or failure does not take away from that, therefore at the present price the downside for Ernest failure is going to be minimal, as the present price only covers Sea Lion and excludes everything else (including cash).

Whilst some shorters might try it on, and some margin and spread betters might close, anyone holding fully paid for shares has no reason to sell, as ultimately they have got in for Sea Lion flow testing, and Ernest is just an event before that happens.

The upside for having the position is that should Ernest come in, it adds 200p a share on discovery news with good oil, and 450p a share once flow tested and ok.

If a flow test is needed at Ernest it would take only about 10 days, after which they would likely P&A the well to eliminate the expensive "suspended" status, which costs a lot of money to keep it in that state. Sea Lion was only suspended for flow testing, as the equipment was not available at the time.

http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2010/07/09/282646/markets-live

9.7.2010

We saw RKH management yesterday, who confirmed that the Ernest exploration prospect is likely to be the next to be drilled on its northern Falklands acreage, once the Ocean Guardian rig is released by FOGL/BHP later this month. The result of the FOGL/BHP Toroa-1 prospect, a giant structure with the potential to contain 1.7bn barrels of oil, is expected imminently

RKHs Ernest well is targeting a 156m barrel prospect with a Chance of Success (COS) of 23%, although this may have been derisked somewhat by the success of the recent 242m barrel Sea Lion discovery. On similar metrics to Sea Lion, Ernest could be worth around 280p/share. Following the 30-35 days expected to drill Ernest, the rig will then demobilise and move back to Sea Lion, where the original well will then be re-enterred in anticipation of a testing programme, due to take 45 days to complete. Two separate zones will be tested, with each zone likely to be tested twice, hence this is a relatively slow job. We therefore expect definitive news on the producability of the reservoir by early to mid September. We have a total NAV of 563p/share, which includes 441p/share for Sea Lion and 122p/share for cash and risked upside continue to BUY>/i>

for people who look at charts - which rules out clubby! - current level just may see a bounce off 25 DMA

July offshore Mag


Falkland Islands

A small spot with a disproportionate amount of activity, the Falkland Islands continue to see drilling. Rockhopper Exploration has updated the analysis of its Sea Lion oil discovery in the offshore North Falkland basin. According to independent consultants RPS Energy, the field could contain 242 MMbbl of recoverable oil, with significant upside potential.

Well 14/10-2 was drilled in April and May to a depth of 2,744 m (9,002 ft), and following completion of final logging, was suspended for future testing. The well penetrated what is thought to be a regional seal between 2,250 and 2,374 m (7,382 and 7788 ft) subsea. Based on log analysis, well site evaluation of shows and samples, sidewall cores, and wireline formation testing, all sands encountered beneath the regional seal at this location appear to be charged with oil. No oil/water contacts were encountered.

The top oil sand in Sea Lion was encountered at 2,374 m (7,789 ft) subsea, and the base of the lowest oil sand at 2,591 m (8,500 ft) subsea. Rockhopper estimates the total vertical oil column at 217 m (712 ft), with total net pay of 53 m (174 ft) in seven identified pay zones, the thickest around 30 m (98 ft) gross.

Pressure data suggest there may be two separate oil columns, although this will have to be confirmed by the well test. The main Sea Lion fan has a net pay interval of 34.5 m (113 ft). Other underlying sands have total net pay of around 18 m (59 ft), some of which appears to be connected to a Sea Lion lower fan, which had been regarded as a primary prospect. The well also intersected a further 2 m (6.5 ft) of deeper pay.

Oil down to 2,591 m subsea is 116 m (380 ft) beneath the lowest mapped point of the entire Sea Lion fan, which has an aerial extent of over 45 sq km (17 sq mi). There are seismic indications of thicker reservoir compartments elsewhere in the fan.

Rockhopper believes the well has opened a new play fairway in licenses PL032 and PL033.

The play around the Falklands may be set to expand, too. Desire Petroleum has classified its first well in the North Falkland basin as a gas discovery. The Liz well 14/19-1 reached a TD of 3,667 m (12,031 ft), and is currently being plugged and abandoned.

Initial log interpretation suggests that the well encountered 17 m (56 ft) of net hydrocarbon pay at sub-surface depths between 2,961 and 3,031 m (9,714 and 9,944 ft) within a zone of over-pressured, and chiefly sandstone, reservoir. A hydrocarbon sample and formation pressures were recovered from this interval.

Early analysis indicates wet gas, with no apparent water-leg in this interval. Desire adds that further work will be needed to evaluate reservoir quality, to determine the trapping mechanism, and to assess the discoverys potential.

The well also recovered dry gas in a separate accumulation in a different pressure regime from a deeper interval below 3,400 m (11,155 ft). This suggests that gas pay is present in generally poor quality reservoir. However, there is uncertainty over the rock type and its reservoir potential.

The Liz fan was encountered between 2,540 and 2,568 m (8,333 and 8,425 ft). Desire says that good oil shows were recorded while drilling, but logging and sampling confirmed that this reservoir interval was tight. The company believes the Beth fan was also penetrated between 2,654 and 2,672 m (8,707 and 8,766 ft), again with oil shows in tight reservoir. Further weak oil shows were recorded in conglomeratic zones between 2,706 and 2,932 m (8,878 and 9,619 ft).

Liz was the first in a multi-well, multi-operator campaign offshore the Falkland Islands using the semisub Ocean Guardian. Rockhopper will now drill two wells in the North Falkland basin and BHP one in the East Falkland basin before the rig returns to Desire for further drilling later in the year.

Desire says it will use the next three months to evaluate data from the Liz well. These and the results of the Rockhopper wells should assist planning of future well locations.

so much for a bounce!
next stop = 290 = 50 dma level

Cynic any other day you would be correct but there have been some difficulties with the OG but am sure they can solve the problem as quick as possible.RKH said 30 days i think maybe still on target.


Just looked on iii and I yarned at the 800 or so posts and know why enjoy moneyam so much betterbetter class of people.well its not over till the fat lady sings!!

Your not wrong there marky. iii & ADVFN full of rampers & rubbish, but I think the younger members love the banter. MAM & Motley Fool at least have some decent info & opinions.

Totally correct Harry...ADFVN i dont have but have over 1000 post today on iii and i woundt care i have loads filted but still to much crap so its a turn off.

But when you have a 1000 in a day post you know your on to a winner.

I See the fat lady is standing up a singing again.happy days!!!

????????????
sp is flat to down

ADVFN also has some very well informed posters as well, depends what threads you want to read, some like the PET thread attracts a lot of tossers.

I see RKH was tipped in the money mag yesterday as a win win share.They pointed out how the share prise had risen and why and expected it to rise further...

Hi Marky,
Hope all is well. It's been a long time. I am still in both these and DES. Gave up posting on BB's a while back, too much flak. I see it is nice and civilised on here though!
Are you uptodate with what is happening on the rig?

drop me a line.

Hi John,

long time no hear,once a spiv always a spiv,will send you a email through moneyam later today and catch up.

As near up to date with rig..... 12 1/4 hole section to TD.

The flow testing gear is sitting in the FI waiting to be taken to the OG not long now for news.

Hmmmm... that looks very like the car park on the seafront at Gt.Yarmouth to me!