http://www.falklands-oil.com/

http://www.rockhopperexploration.co.uk

http://www.argosresources.com/




Rockhopper was established in 2004 with a strategy to invest in and undertake an offshore oil exploration programme in the North Falkland Basin. It was floated on AIM in August 2005. Rockhopper was the first company to make a commercial oil discovery in the Falklands. Today Rockhopper is the largest acreage holder in the North Falkland Basin, with interests in the Greater Mediterranean region.

Vey strange trades going through! Chav that 50p bet am going to win if they carry on at speed to TD,lets hope HC be found.

I don't think Ernest will deliver anything and therefore expect the SP to fall. No info to back up that thought but to have a 100% hit record would be unlikely but delightful. If we don't get a good result then that's fine by me as I can then pile in for a few more at a better price. The swings on a poor RNS will be excessive and that's the time to buy.

It would appear the well should now be at or through the top of the reservoir formation, meaning the first signs of a gas kick or of oil traces in the drilling mud could be available to the workers on the rig.

Interesting times.............

Pro I would think they have hit the first target zone and may have hit the second today and now all guns blazing to TD

Come on the Rock!!!!!

i confess i have no confidence that ernest will produce commercial oil and have lightened my holding here, leaving me still well o'weight, but hedged by being short of FOGL

Times today

Sam Moody hesitates for a second and looks nervous. No, I have never been to Argentina, he says. Any plans to go? Not at the moment.

It would probably be wise for Mr Moody to keep it that way, for the managing director of Rockhopper Exploration is unlikely to be a popular man on the streets of Buenos Aires.

Back in May, shares in the British oil company rose from 30p to more than 300p after it announced the first oil discovery in the history of the Falkland Islands.

The news that Rockhoppers Sea Lion find contained at least 242 million barrels of black gold worth nearly $20 billion was greeted with delight in Port Stanley but provoked outrage in Argentina, where President Kirchner urged David Cameron to halt drilling in disputed waters.

For Mr Moody it has been a remarkable journey. The 40-year-old from Salisbury now finds himself an unlikely villain for some of South Americas fieriest socialists, including President Chez of Venezuela, who has accused Britain of colonialist meddling in the South Atlantic.

Mr Moody seems unfazed: It doesnt keep me awake at night. Were just exploring for oil.

Nevertheless, his cool demeanour cannot conceal his obvious glee at the discovery, which was made 220 kilometres north of the Falklands.

We hit the jackpot, he told The Times yesterday in his first newspaper interview. Its extremely exciting. We believe that we are on the cusp of opening up a new oil province. You could get billions of barrels in this basin.

Mr Moody, who was a guitar-playing Wiltshire property entrepreneur before starting Rockhopper in 2004, admits he fell into the oil business by accident. Born in Bristol and raised in Somerset, he worked as a stockbroker in the City for a few years before moving to the countryside for a better lifestyle. Nothing about what I was doing was giving me any satisfaction so we moved out of London and I started out as an entrepreneur, he said.

A chance meeting with Richard Visick, a property lawyer from Linklaters who happened to own a small island and a wildlife lodge in the Falklands, led to him searching for oil 8,000 miles away in the South Atlantic. Although neither man had any oil industry experience, they became convinced they could find oil there after studying details of an earlier Shell exploration in 1998 that was posted on the internet by the Falklands Government.

Back then, Shell and three other companies had drilled six wells, five of which found traces of oil or gas. At the time, however, further drilling was not considered commercial because oil prices were only $10 per barrel. It was never my idea to set up an oil company ... but we knew there was oil there so that gave us a lot of confidence, Mr Moody said. They [Shell] had just been drilling in the wrong place.

of course the above article really relates to Sealion, the comments on which are probably valid - or at least as valid as can be guesstimated ...... Ernest gets no mention at all, though i dare say some would like to imagine it does

It's 50-50 with Ernest....but then there is so much drilling to come from the Falklands....Desire will be the centre of focus soon.....

Rf, it's not 50-50. I think 30-70 is more accurate.

True.....what I mean is it's there or not....

so does harry, and his guesstimate is rather closer to what others with more expert knowledge think

Our Competent Persons Report (CPR) also
considered eight of our oil prospects, giving the
top two a 23% chance of success, which is high
in exploration terms. These were Sea Lion and
Ernest. The positive CSEM result on Ernest was
not considered in the CPR, which we believe
further improves the chance of success

Now if you add in the data from Sea Lion and the CSEM i think one broker said it was 40% after talking to the RKH

If Ernest hits oil which i hope it will, it will De risk the whole of the SNFB and bring in the big boys as there are sum huge prospects in DES and RHK acerage.

If not you have the flow test on Sea Lion which could be a huge upgrade its massive the Sea Lion prospect.

I will plum between 450 to 700 mill barrels and you can pull me on the figure if i get it wrong.....no ramp just my thoughts on Sea Lion.

So if Ernest is a duster the price will fall but not like with Desire as RKH have found oil and on to Sea Lion for flow test and the price will go shooting up

Oriel pricing Sea Lion at 242 mill barrels at 7.50 a share take it with a pich of salt and lets say 3.50 if a good upgrade on Sea Lion i can see 8 and if Ernest comes in i retire.......

Post from AFN on why GKP's valuation is low :



"..............The economics for Kurd oil are rubbish. You'd value North Sea or Falklands oil at ...$10EV/bbl but Kurdistan oil will be about $1EV/bbl because you'd expect Kurd and Iraqi Govt to take 90% of the economics as they are entitled to.

So GKP's 'billions of barrels' are only worth 'millions of barrels'

Furthermore the 'one-eyed men' who have been proclaimed kings amongst the blind men of the GKP muppet punter kingdom (e.g. Dalesman etc) are very clever in how they spin this Pile of Shit. For example they continually go on about OIP (Oil in Place volume) but that is very much different from actual Recoverable Oil and they never mention the Quality.

Kurdistan Oil is

Heavy Oil (thus higher cost of extraction and lower commerical value as well)

Lower Recoverability

Poor Economics

High Security/Political Risk

That is why GKP is valued at less than RKH.............."

I have 16th Aug ringed on my calender, tagged RKH, so hope I am correct in saying news should be hitting the presses about then. 8 days to go!

looks like another 50p for me then Marky!

As long as its not a box of tissues,did you read the whole write up in the Times with Sam Moody?Good write up.

Sam sounded postitive, so lets hope it's well placed and Ernie comes up with the goods. If Ernie does come in then that will make a huge difference for DES by derisking two of their largest targets.

Cant be long now, i see Sam pointed out that they might be there still next year.......heeeeee


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2mdXLfx0xoQ&feature=related

Come on Ernie!!!!!

I hope you're right - I am a bit overweight with both DES and RKH.

but there again ERNIE always was a lottery!

Sea Lion and the flow test and the possible upgrade is what am looking forward to and Ernie is the cream on the cake if he come in and then its party time and my BMW X6.

Good odds on Ernie and the CMSE make it better.