.

Thats what stock markets are about "if if if if".

You bet on the "if" happening, and if it does you make money.

The "if" can be anything, from increased sales at Tesco, to more profits at Barclays, to BOR striking oil at Darwin, to RKH being able to farm out etc........


A little bit silly to say that cynic......... thats what investing is all about, taking a chance on an IF.

Fogl are a long shot compared with investing in many companies that are far safer,
but risk V Reward.
When I first invested in Rockhopper it was also around risk factor of 10% to 20%, and look where they are headed. If I took my money and ran now, I would be several hundred % up, so using the analogy of equalization, if I put the same money into Fogl as I put in Rkh and lost the lot, I would still be in net profit of both.
And of course no one de-risked Rkh, whereas Rkh have to a extent de-risked Fogl.
I actually only have a small amount in Fogl, but when my investing pot increases, I intend to have a lot more.
Surely anyone risk adverse, to the extent of not investing in Fogl would not have invested in Rkh.
As for Bor, you could use the same argument!

regards Greek.

i am not risk averse, but that doesn't mean that i want to go luge or downhill ski racing either

Good answer!

If you use Edison's figures, just before the Sea Lion well - after the DES failures, the market was valuing Rockhopper at $1.4/boe of risked resources. Based on a 25% CoS, the market is currently valuing FOGL shares at $0.2/boe of risked resources, suggesting a possible 600% upside before the wells are spudded.

And that is, as it says, just to be valued as RKH were straight after DES failures and prior to them drilling Sea Lion for the first time.

So targets of 240p to 360p for FOGL pre-Loligo spud are not wide of the mark. Those who have the guts to hold will benefit, thats for sure.

If you use Edison's figures, just before the Sea Lion well - after the DES failures, the market was valuing Rockhopper at $1.4/boe of risked resources. Based on a 25% CoS, the market is currently valuing FOGL shares at $0.2/boe of risked resources, suggesting a possible 600% upside before the wells are spudded.

And that is, as it says, just to be valued as RKH were straight after DES failures and prior to them drilling Sea Lion for the first time.

So targets of 240p to 360p for FOGL pre-Loligo spud are not wide of the mark. Those who have the guts to hold will benefit, thats for sure.

IF could mean a film

Starting to move upwards....

The South Falklands now starting to stretch their legs a little, getting ready for the potential big big gains.

Sold at £1.34 in Nov 2009, bought back in yesterday at .66p. The signs are good for a modest short term profit.

i have taken the precaution of selling 50% for a very acceptable profit ..... logic is that if BOR get whacked, as i think they will for a variety of reasons, then FOGL will catch the backwash

cynic tasty profit who can tell which way this can go i bought into the argentine suppy co but may dip here also now Wills and the SAS forward and protection and other backup as i mentioend on other boards ha arrived

we will see think in soon

As long as they dont go the way of that other lot FGML who surfaced with loads of pomp but spluttered out as there was more gold in my fillings!!!!

Will be interesting to see if FOGL farm out before Loligo spuds. There is an option on the present drill contract for a single further option well (making it 5 wells in total).

BOR have funds for 2 and are committed to 2, FOGL have funds for 2 and are committed to 2, and there is one open option.

If FOGL did farm out before Loligo spuds, then we could see FOGL drilling 3 wells this round.

The original contract was for 2 firm plus 3 options. FOGL took two of the options and 1 option is left over.



Fri May 6, 2011 9:25am EDT
ATHENS, GREECE, May 06 (MARKET WIRE) --
DryShips Inc. (NASDAQ: DRYS) (the "Company" or "DryShips"), a global
provider of marine transportation services for drybulk and petroleum
cargoes and off-shore contract drilling oil services, announced the
signing, by its majority-owned subsidiary Ocean Rig UDW Inc. ("Ocean
Rig"), of a new drilling contract for its 5th generation drilling rig
"Leiv Eiriksson" with Borders & Southern Petroleum plc for performance of
exploration drilling offshore the Falkland Islands. This contract
replaces the previous contract with Borders & Southern plc for the "Eirik
Raude." The "Leiv Eiriksson" will perform the scheduled drilling program
in direct continuation after completion of the drilling campaign for
Cairn Energy offshore Greenland. The contract is for a two well contract
for a period of about 90 days, including three further optional wells.
The contract value is approximately USD 80 million..........

.

A farm out deal could really add value to FOGL.

The market is basically giving tiny value to the prospects, so the chance of farming a little out, but getting a 3rd drill fully paid for by the farm in partner during this round of drilling would really add value.

It could be 1 explo and then 2 appraisal wells on Loligo in the event of a find.

Or it could be Loligo then Scotia and then 1 of any type of play that BOR might find oil in - giving FOGL 3 shots on 3 different play types.

Just made my first purchase of FOGL @68

Blue = RKH , Green = FOGL , Red = DES , Light Blue = BOR

What colours and which stocks ?

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/southamerica/falklandislands/9098633/Cristina-Kirchner-told-to-leave-Falkland-Islanders-alone-by-Argentinas-intellectuals.html

.

I note that RAB (Does that stand for robbers and bandits??) have a 22% holding. Mind you they have a 23% holding in OXUS Which is a mind numbing failure at the moment.