Falklands Oil & Gas (FOGL LN, 36p, ▼ 42.86%): FoX Davies (HOLD, 55p)
Sometimes Fizz Doesn't Mean a Celebration -While reservoir conditions at this location would not be conducive to drilling at the same location again to appraise the discovery, it does indicate that, save for localised issues, that the Scotia discovery still has the potential, albeit elsewhere in the structure, to be a world class gas discovery.
That this information will be integrated with the data from the existing and proposed 3D seismic programme is also likely to sharpen the Company's pencils ahead of the next campaign.
What you can't escape is that the fourth well in the Falklands South Basin ("FSB") supports the findings from the first three wells, and that this strongly suggests that the SFB is gas prone. Unfortunately, except for small pockets of liquids, which like Border's Darwin well, are likely to be gas-condensate accumulations with very high gas-oil ratios, it would suggest that any further drilling will yield gas discoveries. Consequently, we believe that under the current regime, any development in the SFB is now pushed out beyond 2022; the size requirement and technical demands of a marinised LNG makes these assets marginal.
This would all change in an instant if the Falkland Islands Government ("FIG") has a change of heart, and allows the construction of facilities on shore. Instantly it would open up the SFB and make what was marginal a commercial concern; it would also favour Rockhopper/Premier's Johnston discovery, which is a multi tcf gas-condensate discovery.
Following this news, and in the absence of any movement from the FIG, we are valuing FOGL at cash ($220mm - 43p) plus the option value for the remainder of its portfolio (12p), which equates to 55p. However, we are reiterating our HOLD recommendation as we believe that the new information from BOR's and FOGL's drilling campaign, the minimal environmental impact from the drilling by all operators the operators, will start to give the FIG a better idea of modern operational standards in the oil business. Given the share price Movement in BOR, we are moving our SELL recommendation to HOLD.
In this news:
• Well 31/12-01 was drilled to a depth of 5,555m
• Penetrated the mid Cretaceous aged reservoir objective on prognosis
• The Scotia objective had been identified on the basis of its seismic amplitude response
• Strong gas shows (C1 to C5) were encountered whilst drilling the target section
• Interpretation of wireline log data indicates that the target interval 4719m to 4769m comprises 50m of hydrocarbon bearing fine grained sandstones and claystones
• At this location within Scotia, the sandstones form fairly poor quality reservoir, although some zones have up to 20% porosity
• Other thin hydrocarbon bearing sandstones were encountered beneath the main target in the interval 4900m to 5164m
• Subsequent evaluation of the main interval using a wireline formation testing tool did not flow hydrocarbons, indicating that the reservoir has low permeability.
• The well was deepened below the main target in order to penetrate and sample Cretaceous aged source rocks
• Rock cuttings and sidewall core samples have been obtained from several potential source rock intervals
• Sent to the laboratory for detailed analysis, and the results should provide vital information on the quality and maturity of these source rocks and also provide a better understanding of the distribution of oil and gas within this part of the South and East Falklands basin.
• Further announcement on the results of this work will be made in the first quarter of 2013.
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