.

Well apart from the seismic and Loligo results...this will be on the back burner now for some time I gather....convinced that the sp will recover...but the Irish drilling will now be the focus early next year and that will be exciting.....also the Belize wells are looking good (so far).....god knows what will happen in Kurdistan....

Noble - Bullish on Falkland Islands / 27 November 2012

Doubts about Noble's (NBL) future in the Falkland Islands have been limited to Cristina Kirchner's threats. At the moment, Noble's prospects in the Falkland Islands are especially good, and it will not be a surprise if Noble slowly enters Argentinean waters as well. However, for that to happen, Cristina will have to lose the elections next year. Noble is already active in the Falkland Islands, and the potential profits and revenue to the company are astounding.

Argentina's President forbade Noble and other foreign companies from operating in the Falkland Islands. However, her tactics do not seem to be working in her favor. When the news broke out that she may seek an additional presidential term when the elections are held mid-next year, almost a million people protested on the streets of Buenos Aires. This was one of the largest anti-government protests ever.

Noble has decided to forge ahead with its plans to explore and drill in the islands without worrying about what the consequences may be. This is also because most political analysts believe that Cristina will not be able to retain her post in the next election. That prophecy seems to be coming true, when we look at the mass protests that are taking place across Argentina at the moment.

The Argentinean economy is in shambles and the country really is not interested in the Falkland Islands. Most Argentineans believe Falklanders get to choose whether they belong to Britain, Argentina or to themselves. Industry analysts have noted that as long as the British Navy is in place and as long as the Falklanders do not give into empty threats made by Kirchner, oil companies operating in the islands will be safe ...................

more Noble - Bullish on Falkland Islands

Share price not ready yet to bounce back ( even a "cat bounce" ) maybe this afternoon as the weekend starts for closing positions.
shorters closing ( most do not like to carry them through nthe weekend ) could start the rally.

Argentina. (Fading away)
Cityam,yesterday.
Fitch cuts Argentina sovereign debt from B to
CC,(down 5 notches) two steps away from default,
and put a negative outlook on their dept.
This follows Argentina's refusal to pay holders of
debt from the 2000 default (as ordered by an
American Judge.)

MJ - don't disagree, but a particularly difficult one to call i feel ..... however, there looks to be good buying support at 30, and perhaps that's a level to view for entry .... would you disagree?

No good reason for a bounce in this share........the falklands bubble burst a long time ago and the SFB is a disaster.


If you buy shares in this at these levels is a waste of time its a cash shell of a company for a couple of years......it aint going any where .

BOR is an even bigger waste of space at least fogl have money in the bank

Unfortunately the whole Falklands is a waste of space now, marky.

Bueno suerta joe.

I miss cynic waffling on......... never mind, just popped back to post this for peoples info.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/1032631-falklands-oil-and-gas-comes-up-dry-in-the-falklands

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no comment has been required once fogl showed that it was indeed a cuckoo

In fact I bet you lot that some sort of rebound will happen for the falkland stocks ......nothing spectacular but a rebound still the same.....

SP managed just to get on positive territory at the end of the day

The Slow Stochastic on the 2 days candlestick chart is at bottom, maybe tomorrow is going to start positive with a follow through then.

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Final summary thoughts at the end of the drilling, thought I'd do one having written so much during the past 12 months.


ARG - most overvalued Falklands stocks - tiny amount of cash and very high share price/market cap. Is going to have to raise money, meaning dilution of some sort, I would guess farm out and placing. Wait for the placing before buying in - FOGL was around 65p and then dropped to 43p for the placing. I'd expect a similar 30% to 50% fall in the ARG price when any placing happens.

DES - aster, say no more.

RKH - looking cheap but its a long term one - anyone suggesting putting money into FOGL and "waiting a few years for next drilling" is mad, if you are doing that then stick it in RKH.

BOR - low on cash, a questionable commercial condensate discovery (as condensate is expensive to develop thanks to the need for dry gas reinjection - you cannot just produce condensate like oil). The whole SFB is now questionable as to whether it holds any oil at all - might all be gas and condensate. If Noble/Edison are committed long term to the SFB there might be a farm out imo, if there is a lack of any farm out it means the industry is not interested and BOR will have to raise money by placings (again) if they want to drill more, that means share price weakness for a long time to come.

FOGL - not in a good place, two wells in the East Falklands have delivered 2 very bad reservoir formations, on top of Stebbing also finding very bad reservoir. Loligo update (and that was really bad reservoir where not even a puff of gas come out) will not be until Q3 2013 imo. Short term the only news is the "source rock samples" from the Aptian at Scotia, thats in Q1 2013 and that could be very bad if the source rock is deemed only to be mature for gas, not oil.

At the moment there is a lot of "dead cat bounce" ramping of FOGL - telling people to buy for the long term. These people have been buying at 30p to 32p - they are looking for a 10% rise to 33p to 36p level at which they will sell the lot. Same happened with CHAR which recovered a bit and then fell back as those saying buy now, sold the moment it got up a little.

All I would say is be careful, ahead you have imo :

Q4 - no news
Q1 2013 (late) news which might say oil possible, or badly it might say "no oil" in the license area.
March 2013 - Tax year end selling - lots of losses to be taken for CGT.
May to August - summer doldrums where AIM generally has a bad time and falls.
September - chance for Loligo news and seismic news.

For me I am not writing FOGL off, but I am not holding. I will wait for news from the source rock samples in Q1 2013, then if thats bad then I lose interest (as may Noble and Edison) if its good then I will wait for tax year end selling, summer doldrums and buy some FOGL July 2013 ahead of 3D news, but only if the Scotia source rock samples are good, if they say gas I will not bother.

There are too many other good potentials for big gains out there to lock your money in FOGL for a year or more and miss out on many other things.

Just imo - signing off from FOGL now, finally.

Think I told you he sold out when it was 94p.... then it was bull S*** from then on to keep you all in......

Lol - if you compared prorampers (hopefully) final comments on all the shit he posted whilst ramping each and every one of those stocks you'd soon be able to judge what a hypocrite this guy is. I thought gas or condensate was supposed to be a brilliant game changing discovery? What a complete knob head.

BB, he got caught out in the flash crash after CHARs duster and sold at best flat and at worst with a big loss. Couldn't happen to a more deserving ramper.

Cue his alter ego grannygirl to dish the abuse :)

It means he trying to knock it down to buy back.....Loligo is a major gas discovery....the trouble is that it is oil the market wants at the moment....plenty of other targets but there is now a year to wait at least.....well financed...to me the stock should hold up well but they need to find available drilling rigs to continue the exploration down there.....not easy...

Loligo is a major gas discovery ...... ?????? who says?

Loligo is uncommercial and found only thin sand.
Required field, you are totally misleading.

thats not wot i calll im.,.