http://www.falklands-oil.com/

http://www.rockhopperexploration.co.uk

http://www.argosresources.com/




Rockhopper was established in 2004 with a strategy to invest in and undertake an offshore oil exploration programme in the North Falkland Basin. It was floated on AIM in August 2005. Rockhopper was the first company to make a commercial oil discovery in the Falklands. Today Rockhopper is the largest acreage holder in the North Falkland Basin, with interests in the Greater Mediterranean region.

You see, thats exactly the kind of comment that shows just how little PI's know about how to value an oil stock.

First and most important in the valuation is the commercial recoverable barrels figure, the reserves.

Secondly its how much profit you can turn per barrel, so a good fiscal regime where the government takes little tax and royalties is good (unlike say Kurdistan where anyone will struggle to make a good profit per barrel once the Kurds and Iraqis take their cuts). Also into this comes the cost to produce.

Thirdly for actual producers you can add in the cashflow and therefore flow rates are important. You can also reduce down for risk etc.....debt levels......

Then is the add ons, which is the other potentials in your license areas to drill.

So first and foremost its how much proven recoverable oil you have along with government tax and royalty deductions.


EG - no point having 20,000 bopd flow if all you have in 50 million barrels, that will soon be all used up.

No point having 8 million barrels of Oil In Place if you can recover only 10% of it and then you have to pay 95% of any sales price of the oil in local and national tax and royalties.

The price of a company with 242 million barrels of commercial recoverable oil and no production should ultimately be far higher than one with 100 million barrels recoverable on their books.

Get your metrics lined up and all falls into place, which is why one of the real big boys, Merrill Lynch/Bank of America, have a 700p price target.

Get your metrics the wrong way around and its very easy to portray RKH as overvalued - which is what some other brokers with agenda's and their own stocks to pump do.





halifax - 20 Sep 2010 17:07 - 2722 of 2735

cynic even the brokers are ramping this one, RKH would have a market cap of 1.3b if the sp goes to 7 that is 50% greater than AFR which is already producing 20000bopd does that make sense look at the geography and estimate the cost of recovering the oil, it seems to us that exuberance has taken over and we all know what usually follows.

View from Westhouse:-

20/9/10

Westhouse Securities re-iterated its "BUY" recommendation for the oil explorer ROCKHOPPER EXPLORATION (RKH) with an increased target price from 617p to 649p.

The broker is very much encouraged by the "good news", which is says "de-risks" the Sea Lion discovery.

rdg - did i or did i not make a profit on BLNX trading? .... yes i did, to save your brain any work .... though the current position is negative, overall i am still in profit on this stock ..... if you think you have the magic touch with squiddly-diddly shares, then you keep at it old son - i'm sure we are all delighted for you

Many people are privately saying they expect Sea Lion to be 800 million recoverable barrels, not the 242 million presently talked about.

Now The Sun joins in, saying Sea Lion potentially could be 700 million recoverable barrels.

http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/money/city/3145751/3billion-Falkland-Islands-oil-boost.html

THE Falkland Islands are poised for a 3BILLION bonanza after tests showed an oil field off their shores is HUGE.

UK company Rockhopper Exploration said its drillings indicated 240 MILLION barrels were waiting to be tapped.

And some experts believe there are 700 MILLION.

The tax take from the Sea Lion field 140 miles north of the islands in the South Atlantic will be at least 2.5billion over 20 years at current prices.

It is the first commercially v...........................

I have held onto RKH in my SIPP and doing very nicely however sold my Desire yesterday, as i wanted to de-risk ahead of drilling. Will go back into DES a day or two after the drilling results are announced if they are positive

Through 480 and going well........ and dragging DES with it or perhaps DES is gaining its own momentum?

Encountering some resistance around the 480p mark, once gone next attemp will be 490p.

the same happen yesterday with 470p, now is seen as support

It has jumped past the 490 mark with ease!

500p now who would have believed it.

SELL SELL SELL.........idiot I know

mitzy, me as you probably know.

And I also believe it will be over 2000p by Dec 2011.

Buy them, fully paid for, lock them away, no stop losses and enjoy the ride to Dec 2011.

lol Balerboy..

I agree there P.

Well it looks like I sold too early.....but happy with my profit at 480p....big....profit taking will come soon....

RF, can you STFU.

Same old same old from you, ramping when holding, deramping when you sold.

Get a life !!

:)

RF I thought that about asos and dropped a b*llock, you never know how it's going to pan out......till it's too late

Maybe best to sell some & hold some, rf, just in case the chart defies you!

What's STFU......?....talking of ramping....sometimes you are a pain in the neck Prosels....do I carry on about your muck up on Gulfkeystone ?...no...so I should shut it if I were you....

nice one rf.

taken a good profit? ..... sensible chap ..... and i'll include myself in that description as have just sold 1/3 at 509, which still leaves me far too heavily invested here if i was being cautious

Job to know where the top is here.....the problem is not much news in my view for months now, so at some stage the big boys will be banking some dosh.........I'm also asking myself will I buy some DES at some point ?...and so far I can't find an answer.....not at 155p for sure....