Pre-market trading started yesterday (19-05-11), but full market trading to start next week, Tuesday as it now stands (could change). 530p the float price.

Chart to come when I get it, and any other updates/corrections that I happen to spot.

Glencore expected to sweeten terms to win Xstrata

(Reuters) - Commodities trader Glencore, scrambling to save its $30 billion (19.2 billion pounds) offer for miner Xstrata, is expected to sweeten its bid in order to seal the deal, after key shareholder Qatar said it could oppose the takeover on current terms.

Qatar, which remained silent on its intentions for months as it built the second-largest stake in Xstrata, said in a surprise statement on Tuesday that it supported the principle of the deal but demanded an improvement in terms from 2.8 new Glencore shares for every Xstrata share to 3.25.

..Glencore offer for Xstrata 'must be raised’

By Emma Rowley | Telegraph – 11 hours ago
A key shareholder in Xstrata (Dusseldorf: XTR.DU - news) will demand that commodity trader Glencore raises its offer for the FTSE 100 (Euronext: VFTSE.NX - news) miner despite the company reporting its interim profits have halved this week.

The City expects Xstrata to report a slump in earnings over the first six months of the year on Tuesday, as commodity prices have tumbled in the weakening global economic environment.

Xstrata will report that profits for the half dropped 50pc to $1.4bn (£900m), according to the City’s consensus estimates.

In contrast Glencore, whose trading activities mean it can profit from commodity price swings, is expected to report later in the month that its own earnings suffered a less steep fall of 37pc, to $1.5bn, according to analysts at Liberum Capital.

The results, according to Liberum, “will leave many concluding Glencore will not increase its offer to Qatar Holding’s desired 3.25”.

Nonetheless Qatar Holding, Xstrata’s second-biggest shareholder after Glencore, will remain firm in its insistence that Glencore must raise its offer from the 2.8 shares on the table for each Xstrata share, handing the miner’s investors more of the combined company.

The Qataris are understood to see the ball as firmly in Glencore’s court. Amid market suspicions that talks have ground to a halt, their position is that if there is a conversation, Glencore must initiate it and that it will have to be around improving the ratio.

Last week Qatar Holding continued increasing its stake in Xstrata, which on Wednesday edged further above 11pc.

Analysts said that this sent Glencore a warning that they were happy to remain an investor in the miner as a stand-alone company and can keep increasing their holding. “If Qatar owns 20pc then Glencore’s 34pc is not as important as it used to be,” said a fellow Xstrata shareholder.

If the merger falls apart, the investor suggested, “Glencore comes back with another deal which is maybe even worse but the Qataris won’t let them do this, seems to be the pretty clear message.”

However, Glencore maintains that its current offer represents a more-than-adequate premium for Xstrata, particularly given the latest earnings estimates.

With both companies’ shareholders due to vote on the deal on September 7, the expectation is now that Glencore will wait before its own results are out on August 21 before raising or tweaking its offer.

But that is not seen as a certainty by those watching the deal.

Analysts at Liberum now assign just over a one-in-two probability that the deal completes with Glencore offering 2.8 or 3 shares.

They rule out the chance of Glencore going all the way to the 3.25 level at which it can rely on the Qataris’ support

Interim Results

Glencore halts Hong Kong trading ahead of announcement

HONG KONG | Tue Sep 25, 2012 3:30am BST

(Reuters) - Commodities trader Glencore International (0805.HK) (GLEN.L) halted trading in its Hong Kong shares on Tuesday ahead of the release of a price sensitive information, the company said in a stock exchange filing.

The move follows last week's ruling by Britain's takeover regulator, which gave mining group Xstrata Plc (XTA.L) a one week extension to decide whether to accept a $36 billion (22.17 billion pounds) revised offer from Glencore.

The extension - granted at the request of both firms - surprised the market, which had been expecting Xstrata to announce its decision on Monday at the latest.

RECOMMENDED ALL-SHARE MERGER OF EQUALS

Glen is in its best ever shape with or without XTA.

I think many short positions are being squeezed. I expect it to move above 400p this side of the year.

IMS & Third Quarter 2012 Production Report

KEY HIGHLIGHTS

• Overall performance in Q3 2012 was good, despite generally weaker commodity prices.
• Marketing has, once more, demonstrated the robustness of the business model, with low operational gearing and much less direct correlation with commodity prices than industrial activities.
• Industrial activities performance reflected lower prices, but nevertheless delivered a sequential and year-on-year overall volume improvement as we continued to deliver on and benefit from our growth pipeline.
• Debt lower and rolling 12 month credit metrics improved. Our balance sheet retains a level of flexibility which is unique amongst a large part of our peer group.
• Outlook: we are not assuming any short term material improvement in global macro conditions. We are confident that in this environment our business model places us in a strongly competitive position, underpinned by our strong relationships in marketing and our highly capital-efficient low-cost brownfield expansion projects in industrial activities.

Good progress with merger.
They can now start releasing news.

April 16 (Bloomberg) -- Glencore International Plc, the world’s largest publicly traded commodities supplier, cleared the final regulatory hurdle in its $30 billion takeover of Xstrata Plc after gaining approval from Chinese authorities, according to three people with knowledge of the matter.

China’s Ministry of Commerce agreed to the takeover and an announcement is expected today or tomorrow, the people said, asking not to be identified as the decision isn’t yet public. The deal won agreement from South Africa’s antitrust regulator in January and the European Union in November. A spokesman for Baar, Switzerland-based Glencore declined to comment.

Some bed time reading for you

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2013/jun/26/marc-rich-commodities-trader-fugitive-dies

Glencore Xstrata copper output up

StockMarketWire.com

Glencore Xstrata's total own sourced copper production rose to 673,400 tonnes in the six months to the end of June - up 20% on last year.

African copper own sourced production up 42% over the comparable period to 171,500 tonnes, with strong sequential semi-annual growth at Katanga and Mutanda of 21% and 26% respectively.

Other key highlights inlcude:

- Production ramp up at Antapaccay and Mount Margaret (Ernest Henry) successfully continued, following respective commissioning in H2 2012

- Zinc production only modestly down (3%) as healthy growth from Australia, up 7% to 298,400 tonnes and the recently acquired Rosh Pinah operation, largely offset declines from Brunswick and Perseverance as they reached the end of their mine lives

- Own sourced gold production up 14% reflecting continued ramp up at Vasilkovskoye (Kazzinc)

- Koniambo generated first commercial grade ferronickel during April 2013. Line 1 power station now complete and production expected to ramp up towards the end of the year, following certification testing

- Prodeco coal production up 22% to 9.6 million tonnes, reflecting successful delivery of the current expansion plan and recovery from a H2 2012 strike (sequential semi-annual growth was 39%). The new direct loading port, completed on time and budget, was commissioned in April 2013, achieving an average loading rate of 1.6 million tonnes per month

The Glencore Xstrata merger completed on 2 May and production information has been presented on a combined basis.



Story provided by StockMarketWire.com

Recommended for share growth

As Glencore Xstrata reports Q2 results, Helal Miah, investment research analyst at The Share Centre, explains what they mean for investors.

"This morning, Glencore Xstrata released its half year production report (on a combined basis) that showed copper production of 673,400 tonnes, up 20% from the previous year boosted by production increases at its African mines. Investors will also be pleased to see gold production up 14% and coal production in Columbia up 22% after a successful expansion plan, however Zinc production was down by 3%.

"Although the mining sector has had a poor time recently we recommend Glencore Xstrata as a ‘buy' for investors. The company has a unique business model; a fully integrated commodities company with operations involved in extraction, processing, storage, freight and logistics to marketing and sales. The merged business should now allow for scale of production to extract metals, energy and soft commodities in five continents.

"As the global economy shows signs of improvement and the positive impact this may have on commodity prices, we believe an investment into Glencore Xstrata now poses less risk with a good potential for capital growth."

JP Morgan Cazenove "JPMorgan Cazenove has named diversified miner Glencore Xstrata its top pick amongst copper producers, while downgrading its rating for Antofagasta.Glencore Xstrata, which derives 35-40% of its EBITDA/NPV from copper, "stands out in our view", JPMorgan said, reiterating its 'overweight' rating and 410p target price. As for Antofagasta, the broker said that the stock is "up to speed with events" as it cut its rating from 'overweight' to 'neutral' and trimmed its target price from 1,040p to 1,005p."nk

Rns... By Chuin-Wei Yap BEIJING--China's largest copper producer by output, Jiangxi Copper Co. (0358.HK), is planning to bid for the Peruvian copper mine owned by commodities giant Glencore Xstrata PLC (GLEN.LN), the company's board secretary Pan Qifang told the Wall Street Journal Friday. Glencore had agreed to sell the mine, called Las Bambas, as a condition of getting approval from China's Ministry of Commerce for its merger in April with Xstrata. "We are currently considering plans to make the purchase, but haven't talked about a specific price," Mr. Pan said, without elaborating. Analysts estimate Las Bambas to be worth about $5 billion. The Wall Street Journal reported last week that China's Chinalco Mining Corp. International (3668.HK) was close to appointing investment banks Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Morgan Stanley to advise it on buying the Peruvian property, according to people with knowledge of the matter. Mr. Pan didn't say if Hong Kong- and Shanghai-listed Jiangxi Copper would partner Chinalco in its bid. Chinalco Mining is the Hong Kong-listed copper unit of Aluminum Corp. of China, China's largest aluminum and alumina producer by output. Write to Chuin-Wei Yap at chuin-wei.yap@wsj.com Subscribe to WSJ: [link] (END) Dow Jones Newswires August 23, 2013 04:32 ET (08:32 GMT)

This adds to sets of asset sales by Glencore by year end, over $10bln.

Glencore-Xstrata-targets-brazilian-iron-ore-group

Cazenove note:
GLEN has announced interim Chairman Tony Hayward has been appointed to the role on a permanent basis, having been a leading candidate since the search process began in May’13. We expect a mixed shareholder reaction; Dr Hayward's leadership roles at BP and Genel provide the Board with highly relevant expertise at a time GLEN is increasing its upstream E&P exposure. However the nature of his exit as CEO at BP means he may not be viewed universally positively by the US market. In addition, Dr Hayward may need to earn trust that he has the force of personality to maintain the Board's independence alongside GLEN’s CEO and largest individual shareholder (8.3%) Ivan Glasenberg. We view this is a positive appointment, with the merits to be proved over time.
Dr Hayward brings extensive & relevant industry leadership: Tony Hayward is CEO of Genel Energy, a high growth, emerging market E&P company with assets in Kurdistan and he will retain this role. Previously he was CEO of BP from 2007 to 2010, having joined BP in 1982, but departed following the Macondo oil spill. Dr Hayward has served on GLEN’s board since Apr’11 and was senior NED until he was appointed interim Chairman in May’13. In our view, most UK and European institutional investors will be well disposed to his appointment.
GLEN has highest exposure to bullish Nickel fundamentals: We cite tightening nickel markets following Indonesia’s ore export ban in Jan’14 could be a key foundation for GLEN share price support. Overnight nickel prices have continued to move higher and are approaching $19,000/t. GLEN has the highest earnings sensitivity to nickel of the diversifieds; we calculate a 10% move in the nickel price impacts 2014/15 EPS by 3.4/4.6%.
Valuation: GLEN trades on spot PERs of 16.0/14.2x for FY'14/15E and a base case P/NPV of 0.87x. We continue to believe GLEN’s differentiated commodity mix, marketing business and capital allocation strategy justify a premium rating. However, with a lower likelihood of immediate capital returns than peers, we retain our Neutral recommendation."