http://www.gulfkeystone.com/ The firms exploration programme in Algeria is going well and "the shares look good value", say the Investors Chronicle. Your comments please. goal.

not sure of the difference in honesty - an interesting oxymoron don't you think?
"oiling the wheels" is just as good a euphemism

From a poster who's given some good info over time,make of it what you will?

From Nobletrader...

"Lukoil Have been in kurd this week, Im rarely in Kurd, mainly in southern Iraq on an assignment.

did hear that sh4 was capable of flowing c70kbopd if surface equipment allowed it though"


http://www.lse.co.uk/member-info.asp?nick=Nobletrader

typical bb bullshit is my view

http://www.oilgasdigest.com/2012/03/03/exxon-announces-25-year-oil-deals-with-krg/

http://www.live-pr.com/en/shaikan-block-kurdistan-iraq-commercial-r1049362249.htm

From the above,

he Shaikan block produces crude oil and natural gas. The block produces condensate with 18-53o API and 2% sulfur. The price of Shaikan block liquid is benchmarked at Brent Blend.

Peter Hitchens at HSBC:
"The market is enthusiastic about Gulf Keystone Petroleum’s prospects following its discovery of the giant Shaikan field in the KRI. Although we do not doubt that this is a world class discovery, we believe the upside is already more than reflected in the share price, which was boosted by press speculation (Independent on Sunday, 18 December 2011) that ExxonMobil was looking to bid for the company, although Gulf Keystone subsequently denied this. We believe the high political risk would prevent a full price from being paid in such a transaction. We are initiating coverage with an Underweight (V) rating and a target price of 280p.
Using the methodology set out in the valuation section, we derive an asset value for the company of 492p/share. On top of this we add risked exploration upside of 47p/share (full details of the breakdown of this valuation are given later). As we mentioned earlier, we have assumed a 50% discount to NAV for the political risk. This yields a target price of 280p. The shares have raced ahead on the back of the giant Shaikan discovery, as the market expects the company to sell this on to a major industry player. Press reports (Independent on Sunday, 18 December 2011) speculated that ExxonMobil was looking at an 800p/share bid for Gulf Keystone. The company has denied receiving any offer.
We believe the shares already reflect the full value of this asset and that little upside remains in the valuation. As we have already pointed out, much uncertainty remains, so we doubt that a potential buyer would want to pay a price that reflected the full asset value at this stage. The sale of the Akri Bijeel permit, should it occur, will give an indication of the valuation that the industry is willing to place on Gulf Keystone’s reserves and resources."

Nice post HarryCat, finaly some common sense on GKP, I was rather hoping that this stock would be ramped rather higher and present a decent shorting oppertunity. Oh well can't have them all.

the counter-argument runs along the following lines ....
1) the iraq/kurdistan situation will quieten down in due course
2) it is infinitely cheaper for the majors to buy existing good reserves than searching and drilling for new
3) i am sure the arithmetic for COV based on HSBC's argument would have also been substantially lower than the bid already tabled

what an ugly day all round ..... still, i guess one or two are overdue ..... interesting to note that though GKP has dipped, volume is no higher than the norm

market cap £3billion lets see the oil!

i know they buried a can or two somewhere over there, just to satisfy the cynics like you!

cynic remember what happened to GKP in algeria.

Looks like pro can say told you so, dipping badly today.,.

have bitten the bullet on most - ouch and serves me right ..... sp falling quite rapidly and i guess there'll be a lot of forced sales kicking in .... chart not pretty, and next support is arguably at 280

After yesterdays brokers note(HSBC),it seemed only prudent to close my open position,along with selling a few more.I'm now looking for a re-entry point,i think maybe 310p,possibly even lower,but i don't believe it will hit 280p as their's a lot of upside left out of the report. We'll should find out in the next day or two,just a matter of timing i suppose? But the question for me is whether you believe this will be taken out,i personally think so,just for how much? aimho

I see 310p now on offer,if it breaks 300p then 280p becomes a real possibilty?

wow! didn't really expect it to tumble to 300 quite so fast ..... arguable support at 300 as 50 dma is hit

Well i 'm back in £3 or so close as makes no difference,who knows if thats bottom,but i feel it's a fair punt?

i also bought some back at 302, but may just use those to trade