http://www.gulfkeystone.com/ The firms exploration programme in Algeria is going well and "the shares look good value", say the Investors Chronicle. Your comments please. goal.

http://www.live-pr.com/en/shaikan-block-kurdistan-iraq-commercial-r1049362249.htm

From the above,

he Shaikan block produces crude oil and natural gas. The block produces condensate with 18-53o API and 2% sulfur. The price of Shaikan block liquid is benchmarked at Brent Blend.

Peter Hitchens at HSBC:
"The market is enthusiastic about Gulf Keystone Petroleum’s prospects following its discovery of the giant Shaikan field in the KRI. Although we do not doubt that this is a world class discovery, we believe the upside is already more than reflected in the share price, which was boosted by press speculation (Independent on Sunday, 18 December 2011) that ExxonMobil was looking to bid for the company, although Gulf Keystone subsequently denied this. We believe the high political risk would prevent a full price from being paid in such a transaction. We are initiating coverage with an Underweight (V) rating and a target price of 280p.
Using the methodology set out in the valuation section, we derive an asset value for the company of 492p/share. On top of this we add risked exploration upside of 47p/share (full details of the breakdown of this valuation are given later). As we mentioned earlier, we have assumed a 50% discount to NAV for the political risk. This yields a target price of 280p. The shares have raced ahead on the back of the giant Shaikan discovery, as the market expects the company to sell this on to a major industry player. Press reports (Independent on Sunday, 18 December 2011) speculated that ExxonMobil was looking at an 800p/share bid for Gulf Keystone. The company has denied receiving any offer.
We believe the shares already reflect the full value of this asset and that little upside remains in the valuation. As we have already pointed out, much uncertainty remains, so we doubt that a potential buyer would want to pay a price that reflected the full asset value at this stage. The sale of the Akri Bijeel permit, should it occur, will give an indication of the valuation that the industry is willing to place on Gulf Keystone’s reserves and resources."

Nice post HarryCat, finaly some common sense on GKP, I was rather hoping that this stock would be ramped rather higher and present a decent shorting oppertunity. Oh well can't have them all.

the counter-argument runs along the following lines ....
1) the iraq/kurdistan situation will quieten down in due course
2) it is infinitely cheaper for the majors to buy existing good reserves than searching and drilling for new
3) i am sure the arithmetic for COV based on HSBC's argument would have also been substantially lower than the bid already tabled

what an ugly day all round ..... still, i guess one or two are overdue ..... interesting to note that though GKP has dipped, volume is no higher than the norm

market cap £3billion lets see the oil!

i know they buried a can or two somewhere over there, just to satisfy the cynics like you!

cynic remember what happened to GKP in algeria.

Looks like pro can say told you so, dipping badly today.,.

have bitten the bullet on most - ouch and serves me right ..... sp falling quite rapidly and i guess there'll be a lot of forced sales kicking in .... chart not pretty, and next support is arguably at 280

After yesterdays brokers note(HSBC),it seemed only prudent to close my open position,along with selling a few more.I'm now looking for a re-entry point,i think maybe 310p,possibly even lower,but i don't believe it will hit 280p as their's a lot of upside left out of the report. We'll should find out in the next day or two,just a matter of timing i suppose? But the question for me is whether you believe this will be taken out,i personally think so,just for how much? aimho

I see 310p now on offer,if it breaks 300p then 280p becomes a real possibilty?

wow! didn't really expect it to tumble to 300 quite so fast ..... arguable support at 300 as 50 dma is hit

Well i 'm back in £3 or so close as makes no difference,who knows if thats bottom,but i feel it's a fair punt?

i also bought some back at 302, but may just use those to trade

Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES


U.S. energy giant Exxon Mobil Corp. (XOM) has asked the Iraqi central government to give it "few more days" to decide whether or not it will cancel an exploration deal with Iraqi Kurdistan, a deal which Baghdad strongly opposes, a spokesman for Iraq's Deputy Prime Minister for Energy Hussein al-Shahristani said Tuesday.

"The firm has asked the Deputy Prime Minister to give it some more days in order to decide its stance on the contract it signed with Kurdistan," Faisal Abdullah, a spokesman for the Iraqi Oil Ministry, told Dow Jones Newswires.

Abdullah said Exxon's request was submitted last week by a company representative who met with Shahristani in Baghdad.

The Iraqi government has sent Exxon Mobil three letters asking it to choose between its deal to explore six areas in Kurdistan, and its central government contract to develop the 370,000 barrels a day West Qurna Phase 1, one of Iraq's largest oil fields with proven reserves of 8.7 billion barrels.

Exxon hasn't so far responded to these letters.

"The central government is waiting for Exxon to respond to our letters and on the light of Exxon's response, Baghdad would take a decision," Abdullah said.


-By Hassan Hafidh; Dow Jones Newswires; +962 799 831 831; hassan.hafidh@dowjones.com


(END) Dow Jones Newswires

March 06, 2012 03:02 ET (08:02 GMT)

I'm thinking more like 240 before considering this for a upswing punt.

That's killed the recovery!

http://iraqidinarnews.net/blog/2012/03/06/ministry-of-oil-have-not-received-a-response-from-exxon-mobil-about-besvqatha-contin/

Ministry of Oil: have not received a response from Exxon Mobil about Besvqatha contin
MARCH 6, 2012 LEAVE A COMMENT
Source: Neno’s Place – A Community of Reality

Ministry of Oil: have not received a response from Exxon Mobil about Besvqatha continue with Iraqi Kurdistan
Monday, 05 March / March 2012 16:34
Baghdad {: News} Euphrates said spokesman Assem Jihad, the Ministry of Electricity and the Ministry of Oil company Exxon Mobil approached about the position of the latter to continue with Besvqatha Kurdistan Iraq, but until now not up to our ministry in response to them.
The Exxon deal with the Kurdistan of Iraq has provoked threats from Baghdad to cancel the company’s contract to develop the West Qurna field.
Jihad said in a statement to the Euphrates News Agency {} today that “the rebuttal will remain subject to respond to Exxon Mobil to resolve the matter with it.”
The Iraqi Deputy Prime Minister Ruz Nuri Shaways had said earlier that Exxon Mobil will retain a deal large profitable with Baghdad, easing a severe reaction to a former Iraqi officials, an agreement for exploration between the company and the Kurdish autonomous region in northern Iraq, saying that “I do not think the central government in Iraq will cancel any contracts signed or contracts already in place and in particular the contract with Exxon Mobil. “
He added, “we do not want to pre-empt it now and we call judgments and decisions without the knowledge of the company’s response and position on the subject of continuing work in the province of Kurdistan.”
And concluded Exxon contracts worth billions of dollars with the Ministry of Oil of Iraq to develop the first phase of West Qurna oil in the south, with estimated reserves of 8.7 billion barrels in one of several huge contracts Iraq hopes to help rebuild the oil sector, which suffered from the war.